Latest update on New Zealand's 2020 net position

This page has the latest update on New Zealand’s 2020 net position and how it is calculated. We use the net position to track progress towards our 2020 emissions reduction target for the period 2013–2020.

Latest net position – December 2019 update

  • New Zealand is projected to meet its unconditional 2020 emissions reduction target by using 108.0 million units from forestry activities and 27.7 million surplus units carried over from the first commitment period (CP1).
  • New Zealand is projected to have gross emissions for the 2013–20 period 4.5 per cent higher than the carbon budget available after accounting for forestry activities. The remainder (27.7 million units) will be made up of surplus units carried over from CP1.
  • Forestry activities are helping to reduce New Zealand’s emissions by 108.0 million. tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) over the 2013-20 period.

The latest 2020 net position update uses:

One unit represents one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e). Carbon dioxide equivalent is a measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential.

For information on how New Zealand’s 2020 net position is calculated and the carbon budget (also referred to as the emissions budget) see New Zealand’s initial report.

About the net position

To reach its unconditional 2020 emissions reduction target by the end of the 2013 to 2020 period, New Zealand will need to hold units at least equivalent to gross emissions during this period. See the graph below for information on the net position at 16 December 2019.

New Zealand’s projected gross emissions, and units held during the 2013 to 2020 period, as at 16 December 2019

Graph showing New Zealand’s projected gross emissions, and units held during the 2013 to 2020 period, as at 16 December 2019

Note: All emissions units are in Mt CO2-e. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place.

The left column of this graph shows projected gross emissions held during the 2013 to 2020 period were 645.4 Mt CO2-e equivalent. The right column of the graph shows the projected gross units held during the 2013 to 2020 period were: CPI surplus units 27.7 Mt CO2-e equivalent; Forestry activities 108.0 Mt CO2-e equivalent; and the 2013 to 2020 carbon budget was 509.8 Mt CO2-e equivalent.Note: All emissions units are in Mt CO2-e. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place.

Emissions and removals from forestry activities are represented by units based on the Kyoto Protocol accounting framework (refer to New Zealand’s Initial Report for further information on the accounting framework).

Sector breakdown of units and emissions for 2013 to 2020

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

TOTAL

  Historic Projected   
Units      
2013 to 2020 carbon budget     509.8
Kyoto Protocol forestry activities 7.3 12.5 13.9 15.8 16.0 14.4 14.5 13.7 108.0
Surplus units from CP1     123.7
Total units     741.5
Emissions      
Stationary energy 18.0 18.1 17.6 16.1 16.9 16.6 17.2 17.3 137.8
Transport 14.1 14.2 14.8 15.0 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.4 123.0
Industrial processes and product use 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 40.8
Agriculture 39.3 39.7 39.3 38.9 38.9 38.6 38.1 37.8 310.6
Waste 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 33.2
Tokelau 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.02
Gross emissions 80.5 81.3 81.2 79.1 80.9 80.6 80.9 80.9 645.4
Net position   96.1
Note: All emissions units are in Mt CO2-e. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place. 

Units

After accounting for forestry emissions and removals using the Kyoto Protocol framework of rules, New Zealand is projected to have gross emissions for the 2013–20 period 4.5 per cent higher than the carbon budget available. New Zealand is projected to use 27.7 million surplus units from the first commitment period (CP1) to meet its 2020 target.

In total, New Zealand is projected to hold 741.5 million units at the end of the 2013–2020 period.

This results from:

  • the carbon budget for 2013 to 2020 of 509.8 million units
  • net emissions and removals from forestry activities of 108.0 million units
  • the surplus from the first commitment period (CP1) of 123.7 million units.

Carbon budget for 2013 to 2020

For a 5 per cent reduction on 1990 emissions by 2020, New Zealand’s carbon budget for 2013 to 2020 is 509.8 Mt CO2-e representing 509.8 million units for accounting purposes.

This budget is based on 1990 emissions reported in New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2014 and calculated according to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) guidance (refer to New Zealand’s Initial Report for further information on the accounting framework). 

Net emissions and removals from forestry activities

In line with the Kyoto Protocol framework of rules, net emissions and removals from eligible forestry activities can offset gross emissions.

Net emissions and removals from eligible forestry activities are projected to remove 108.0 Mt CO2-e from the atmosphere from 2013 to 2020. Emissions and removals from forestry activities are strongly influenced by historic forest planting rates, harvesting and deforestation activities.

For more information, refer to chapter 11 of New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2017.

Gross emissions

Historic gross emissions are sourced from the inventory and future gross emissions from updated projections for each sector. These gross emissions are reported in the sector categories described below.

Sector category

Projected gross emissions

Stationary energy

Annual energy emissions (including fugitive emissions) without transport are projected to remain fairly static over 2013 to 2020 and total around 137.8 Mt CO2-e during this period. 

Transport

Annual transport emissions are projected to gradually increase contributing a total of 123.0 Mt CO2-e over the 2013 to 2020 period.

 

This increase in emissions is likely to be driven by population growth with the demand for petrol and diesel for road transport expected to increase.

Industrial processes and product use 

Annual industrial processes and product use (IPPU) emissions are projected to remain fairly steady over 2013 to 2020 with a slight increase projected from 2018–2020. IPPU emissions are expected to total 40.8 Mt CO2-e for the 2013 to 2020 period.

 

Most of this projected growth is caused by increased consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Emissions of other greenhouse gases from the IPPU sector are projected to remain steady.

 

In October 2016, New Zealand adopted the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFC consumption and production along with nearly 200 other parties worldwide. Now New Zealand has ratified the amendment, the phase down is included in the projections.

Agriculture

Agriculture emissions are projected to decrease over 2013 to 2020 and are expected to total 310.6 Mt CO2-e over the period.

 

This decrease in emissions is in line with:

  1. A continued decline in the amount of land used for agriculture and continued reduction in land for sheep and beef.
  2. Changes in farm management practices due to the implementation of the National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management.
  3. Continued reductions in emissions intensity (emissions per unit of product).
  4. These emissions are also influenced by other factors such as agricultural prices and adverse events (eg, droughts).

Waste

Waste emissions are projected to remain relatively steady over 2013 to 2020, and are expected to total 33.2 Mt CO2-e for the period.

 

Increasing solid waste disposal amounts are expected to continue at similar historical rates. It is anticipated the resulting increased emissions will be offset by methane capture.

 

Forecasted waste disposal amounts are based off projected trends. 

Changes since April 2019

Forecasts are revised using the recently published projections contained in New Zealand’s Fourth Biennial Report.

Changes in sector projections since the previous net position update (in April 2019) are mostly from transport and agriculture activities and are summarised in the table below.

(Mt CO2-e /millions of units)

APR-19

Change 

Dec-19

Stationary energy

137.8 +0.1

137.8

Transport

120.6 +2.5 123.0

Industrial processes and product use

40.9

-0.1

40.8

Agriculture

312.5 -1.9 310.6

Waste

33.1 +0.1 33.2

Gross emissions

644.8 +0.7 645.4

Carbon budget

509.8

0.0

509.8

Forestry activities

108.0 0.0

108.0

Surplus from CP1

123.7

0.0

123.7

Units

741.5 0.0

741.5

 

Net position

96.8 -0.7 96.1
 Note: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place. 
 
Reviewed:
19/12/19