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Figure 4.2 Probability of exceedance of predictable high tides over the next 100 years (2000-2099), excluding the effects of sea-level rise, based on tide data from the Kaingaroa tide-gauge

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The figure shows a line-graph that expands the extreme high water end of Figure 4.1. High water height in metres above MLOS (vertical axis) is plotted against the log10 of the probability of exceedance of predictable high tides. The horizontal probability scale varies from 10-5 to 1. The probability curve starts at the 10-5 end with a high water height of 0.73m above MLOS, and dips only very slightly to a height of 0.69m above MLOS for a probability of 10-2 (i.e., 1%). Thereafter, the curve of high water height versus probability drops more sharply on the logarithmic scale, to asymptote to a height of about 0.34m above MLOS at a probability of 1.