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Figure 4.1 Probability of exceedance of predictable high tides based on tide data from the Kaingaroa tide gauge

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The black box around the Chatham Islands marks the area over which changes were averaged for the Chathams projections. Grey shading indicates zero models with a decrease (i.e., all six giving an increase). At the Chathams, two of the 6 models give a decrease in annual rainfall.

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The graph in this figure shows the right half of a Gaussian-shaped probability curve, indicating the probability (vertical axis) of exceeding a specified high tide level (horizontal axis) at Kaingaroa. The probability approaches 1.0 for high tide heights of 0.34m or smaller, relative to the Mean Level of the Sea (MLOS). The probability approaches zero for high tide heights exceeding the HAT mark (0.74m above MLOS). Also shown on the graph is the "Pragmatical" High Spring Tide of 0.61m above MLOS, with 10-12% exceedance probability.