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Chart 1: Distribution of projected balance of emissions units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (million emissions units)

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Chart 1 shows the distribution of possible outcomes following a repeated sampling technique (or Monte-Carlo simulation) of the projected balance of units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The curve approximates a normal distribution, ie, a bell curve. The distribution tails off at the 95th percentile of a deficit of 76.1 million units and a surplus of 1.4 million units.