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5 Reconciliation with previous projections

The changes in the components of the Kyoto Protocol compliance equation are shown in Figure 11 and detailed changes in all variables since the 2005 net position report are shown in Table 3. Full explanations of the changes in the methodology, assumptions and results for each sector is found in the sectoral projection appendices (A–D). A summary of the changes since the 2007 net position is shown in the executive summary and chapter 3 of this report.

Figure 11: Changes to the estimates since 2007

Table 3: Reconciliation with historic net positions (million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent)

  May 2008 Change May 2007 Change May 2006 Change Dec. 2005 Change May 2005

Projected emissions

Stationary energy

92.4

–0.4

92.8

0.3

91.3

       

Transport

71.3

–8.8

80.1

1.3

78.8

       

Industrial processes

22.0

–0.2

22.2

–0.6

22.9

       

Total energy and industrial processes

185.6

–9.5

195.1

0.9

193.0

–14.5

207.5

13.1

194.4

Solvent and other product use

0.2

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.0

 

0.0

Agriculture

198.5

–4.7

203.1

4.8

198.8

–3.2

202.0

 

202.0

Waste

7.2

0.2

7.0

0.5

6.5

1.2

5.3

 

5.3

Projected aggregate emissions

391.5

–14.0

405.4

6.3

398.5

–16.3

414.8

13.1

401.7

Assigned Amount Units

309.6

0.1

309.5

1.9

307.6

0.0

307.6

 

307.6

Projected Removals

Removals via forests (article 3.3)

84.1

5.1

79.0

0.8

78.2

1.0

77.2

 

77.2

Deforestation emissions

16.9

–24.1

41.0

0.0

38.5

0.0

21.0

14.7

6.3

Net Removals via forests

67.2

29.2

38.0

0.8

39.7

1.0

56.2

–14.7

70.9

NEW ZEALAND'S NET EMISSIONS

–14.7

43.3

–58.0

–3.6

–51.2

17.3

–51.0

 

–23.2

Additional policy and unit transfer adjustments

AAUs commited to projects

7.0

–0.5

7.5

0.0

7.5

 

7.5

 

7.5

Effect of deforestation emissions cap

0.0

–20.0

20.0

2.5

17.5

17.5

0.0

   

Monte Carlo modelling difference

         

5.5

–5.5

 

–5.5

NEW ZEALAND'S NET POSITION

–21.7

23.8

–45.5

–3.6

–41.2

22.8

–64.0

27.8

–36.2

Notes:

  1. One emissions unit is equivalent to one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions converted to carbon dioxide equivalents by their global warming potential (IPCC 1995).

  2. Net removals via forests offset emissions and reduce the deficit on the net position.

  3. This table shows the impact of the deforestation cap separately under policy and unit transfers, rather than being included with deforestation emissions (as in previous Net Position reports).