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3 Projections of emissions and removals

The Ministry for the Environment leads the net position update across government to ensure internal consistency of projections, to project-manage the update, and to compile the Kyoto Protocol compliance equation. For the 2008 net position report, each government department has produced a full independent report of projected emissions and removals for their sector. These reports (attached as Appendices A–D) explain the modelling approaches used by the departments, changes in projections since 2007, and how uncertainty was treated in each sector.

3.1 Total emissions

Total emissions (excluding emissions from the land use, land-use change and forestry sector) over the first commitment period are a combination of emissions from the energy (including transport), industrial processes, solvents, agriculture and the waste sectors as specified in Annex A and Article 3.1 of the Kyoto Protocol (refer Box 1).

Total emissions of greenhouse gases are projected to be 391.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. Over the first commitment period, this equates to average annual emissions of 78.3 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Figure 1).

Emissions projections for each sector are based on detailed sectoral modelling. A simple linear extrapolation of total emissions has been included in Figure 4. The simple linear extrapolation projects total annual emissions to be 81.9 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent.

3.2 Inclusion of policy

The net position does not evaluate or report the effects of individual policies. All policies are treated together to get the best estimate of New Zealand’s emissions and removals over the first commitment period. The net position is calculated consistent with the Public Finance Act 1989 (section 26U) that requires the net position to incorporate to the fullest extent possible, all government decisions and all other circumstances that may have a material effect on the projection and that can be quantified with reasonable certainty.

The 2008 net position report includes all government decisions as at 15 April 2008. The modelled effects of new policies introduced in 2008 are the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, the New Zealand Energy Strategy, and the New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy. The biofuels sales obligation and solar hot water programme policies were included in the 2007 net position estimate and have been retained in the 2008 projection.

Figure 4: Historical emissions data and projected emissions 1990–2012

 

Note: Includes emissions from energy (including transport), agriculture, waste, solvents and industrial processes. Emissions from deforestation are not included.

 

2008 inventory submission, and projected emissions 2008-2012

Trend

2007 emissions projection

1990

61.9

60.46475415

 

1991

62.4

61.53474

 

1992

63.6

62.60473

 

1993

63.0

63.67472

 

1994

64.2

64.74471

 

1995

64.5

65.8147

 

1996

66.0

66.88469

 

1997

68.8

67.95468

 

1998

66.9

69.02467

 

1999

68.8

70.09466

 

2000

70.7

71.16465

 

2001

73.1

72.23463

 

2002

73.4

73.30462

 

2003

76.0

74.37461

 

2004

74.9

75.4446

 

2005

77.4

76.51459

 

2006

77.8

77.58458

 

2007

 

78.65457

 

2008

77.7

79.72456

79.25514

2009

78.0

80.79455

80.30325

2010

78.2

81.86454

80.80014

2011

78.3

82.93452

81.93072

2012

79.3

84.00451

83.15981

Average historic growth 1.6%

Average annual projected growth 0.3%

3.3 Energy and industrial processes emissions

Energy, transport and industrial processes emissions projections are provided by the Ministry of Economic Development (MED 2008, included here as Appendix B). Historical data on emissions for the period 1990–2006 and projected emissions for stationary energy, transport and industrial processes are shown in Figures 5, 6 and 7 below. Stationary energy refers to emissions from energy sources excluding transport.

Emissions from stationary energy, transport and industrial processes are projected to be 9.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent lower than projected in 2007. The most substantive change in projected energy emissions is due to emissions from transport being 8.8 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent lower than projected in 2007. The Ministry of Economic Development (MED 2008), in summary, explain the reductions are due to actual fuel use data for 2007 being lower than expected and for higher fuel prices being assumed for the first commitment period.

Figure 5: Historical emissions data and projected stationary energy emissions 1990–2012

 

Source: Historical emissions data MfE (2008a), projected emissions MED (2008)

 

Electricity

Residential

Industrial & Commercial

Projected emissions 2007

Projected emissions 2008

1990

3.5

0.6

10.6

 

 

1991

3.9

0.5

10.6

 

 

1992

5.0

0.5

10.9

 

 

1993

4.1

0.4

10.8

 

 

1994

3.2

0.4

11.1

 

 

1995

2.9

0.4

10.7

 

 

1996

3.7

0.5

10.8

 

 

1997

5.7

0.5

10.9

 

 

1998

4.0

0.5

10.9

 

 

1999

5.3

0.5

10.7

 

 

2000

4.9

0.6

11.1

 

 

2001

6.2

0.6

11.3

 

 

2002

5.3

0.6

11.7

 

 

2003

6.6

0.6

11.4

 

 

2004

6.2

0.6

10.6

 

 

2005

8.4

0.6

10.4

 

 

2006

8.3

0.6

10.8

18.6

 

2007

 

 

 

18.5

18.6

2008

 

 

 

18.5

18.8

2009

 

 

 

18.6

18.6

2010

 

 

 

18.2

18.5

2011

 

 

 

18.5

18.1

2012

 

 

 

18.8

18.4

Emissions relative to 2007 projection are 0.4 Mt CO2-e lower over CP1

Average historical growth 1.8%

Average annual projected growth 1.4%

Figure 6: Historical emissions data and projected transport emissions 1990–2012

 

 

Source: Historical emissions data MfE (2008a), projected emissions MED (2008)

 

Air

Sea

Land

Projected emissions 2007

Projected emissions 2008

1990

0.8

0.3

7.7

 

 

1991

0.7

0.3

7.9

 

 

1992

0.6

0.3

8.2

 

 

1993

0.7

0.3

8.6

 

 

1994

0.8

0.4

9.1

 

 

1995

0.9

0.3

9.8

 

 

1996

0.8

0.3

10.0

 

 

1997

0.8

0.2

10.4

 

 

1998

0.8

0.1

10.6

 

 

1999

0.8

0.2

10.9

 

 

2000

0.8

0.4

11.2

 

 

2001

1.1

0.3

11.4

 

 

2002

1.0

0.4

12.0

 

 

2003

1.2

0.4

12.5

 

 

2004

1.2

0.3

12.8

 

 

2005

1.0

0.4

12.8

 

 

2006

1.1

0.3

13.0

14.7

 

2007

 

 

 

15.2

14.3

2008

 

 

 

15.5

14.3

2009

 

 

 

15.8

14.3

2010

 

 

 

16.1

14.2

2011

 

 

 

16.3

14.1

2012

 

 

 

16.6

14.3

Emissions relative to 2007 projection are 8.8 Mt CO2-e lower over CP1

Average annual historical growth= 3.4%

Average annual projected growth= -0.2%

Figure 7: Historical emissions data and projected industrial processes emissions 1990–2012

 

 

Source: Historical emissions data MfE (2008a), projected emissions MED (2008)

 

Projected emissions 2008

Projected emissions 2007

Inventory 2008

1990

 

 

3.4

1991

 

 

3.6

1992

 

 

3.6

1993

 

 

3.3

1994

 

 

3.2

1995

 

 

3.4

1996

 

 

3.6

1997

 

 

3.3

1998

 

 

3.5

1999

 

 

3.7

2000

 

 

3.6

2001

 

 

3.8

2002

 

 

4.0

2003

 

 

4.3

2004

 

 

4.0

2005

 

 

4.2

2006

 

 

4.2

2007

 

 

 

2008

4.330

4.384

 

2009

4.361

4.415

 

2010

4.393

4.445

 

2011

4.427

4.473

 

2012

4.461

4.499

 

Emissions relative to 2007 projection are 0.2 Mt CO2-e lower over CP1

Average annual historical growth= 1.5%

Average annual projected growth=0.8%

3.4 Agriculture emissions

Figure 8 shows historical data on emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture reported the 2008 national greenhouse gas inventory (MfE 2008a). The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has provided a projection for total agricultural emissions at 2010 (MAF 2008a, included here as Appendix A). New Zealand’s agriculture greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be 4.7 million tonnes lower than projected in 2007 due to the effects of the drought during early 2008 and a continuing decline in sheep numbers. Sheep numbers projected for 2010 are now 1.7 million lower than in the 2007 projection (Appendix A: MAF (2008a)).

Figure 8: Historical emissions data and projected agricultural emissions 1990–2012

 

 

 

Source: Historical emissions data MfE (2008a), projected emissions MAF (2008a)

Note: Other emissions include savanna burning, crop residue burning, and livestock emissions from poultry, pigs, horses and goats.

 

Dairy

Beef

Sheep

Deer

Synthetic fertiliser

Other

Trend

Projected emissions 2007

Projected emissions 2008

1990

7.6

7.0

16.3

0.6

0.3

0.8

31.0

 

 

1991

7.8

7.2

15.8

0.7

0.4

0.7

31.4

 

 

1992

7.9

7.3

14.9

0.7

0.4

0.6

31.8

 

 

1993

8.3

7.6

14.5

0.7

0.6

0.6

32.2

 

 

1994

8.8

8.2

14.3

0.7

0.7

0.6

32.6

 

 

1995

9.3

8.2

14.0

0.7

0.9

0.6

32.9

 

 

1996

9.8

7.9

14.1

0.8

0.9

0.6

33.3

 

 

1997

10.1

7.9

14.5

0.9

0.8

0.6

33.7

 

 

1998

10.1

7.3

14.2

1.0

0.9

0.6

34.1

 

 

1999

10.4

7.5

14.2

1.1

1.0

0.6

34.5

 

 

2000

11.2

7.8

14.2

1.1

1.1

0.6

34.9

 

 

2001

12.0

7.7

13.6

1.1

1.4

0.6

35.2

 

 

2002

12.6

7.6

12.9

1.1

1.8

0.6

35.6

 

 

2003

12.9

7.7

12.9

1.1

1.9

0.6

36.0

 

 

2004

12.8

7.6

13.1

1.1

2.0

0.6

36.4

 

 

2005

12.8

7.6

13.4

1.1

2.0

0.6

36.8

 

 

2006

13.0

7.7

13.4

1.1

1.9

0.6

37.2

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

37.5

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

37.9

 

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

38.3

 

 

2010

15.3

7.3

11.8

1.0

 

 

38.7

40.6

39.7

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

39.1

 

 

2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

39.5

 

 

Emissions relative to 2007 projection are 4.7 Mt CO2-e lower over CP1

Average annual historical growth= 1.1%

Average annual projected growth= 1.1%

3.5 Waste emissions

Waste emissions projections were provided by the Ministry for the Environment (MfE 2008b, included here as Appendix D). Figure 9 shows historical data on emissions of greenhouse gases from the waste sector reported in the 2008 national greenhouse gas inventory submission (MfE 2008a) and projected emissions by the Ministry for the Environment. The inclusion of solid waste incineration for the first time in the 2008 national greenhouse gas inventory submission, and some methodological corrections, has resulted in New Zealand’s projected waste emissions increasing by 0.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent compared to 2007.

Figure 9: Historical emissions data and projected waste emissions 1990–2012

 

 

Source: Historical emissions data and projected emissions MfE (2008a,b)

 

SWDS

Wastewater

Incineration

2008 projection

2007 projection

Trend

1990

2.121527

0.369191

0.014483

 

 

2.613919

1991

2.147226

0.372683

0.014483

 

 

2.562581

1992

2.103831

0.374204

0.014473

 

 

2.511242

1993

2.117446

0.375711

0.014473

 

 

2.459904

1994

2.092035

0.377428

0.014322

 

 

2.408565

1995

1.892043

0.379478

0.014322

 

 

2.357227

1996

1.90286

0.38149

0.013842

 

 

2.305889

1997

1.890113

0.383318

0.013842

 

 

2.25455

1998

1.833033

0.381945

0.013721

 

 

2.203212

1999

1.710891

0.380473

0.013611

 

 

2.151873

2000

1.737277

0.37885

0.01268

 

 

2.100535

2001

1.694855

0.377193

0.00723

 

 

2.049196

2002

1.653581

0.379255

0.00723

 

 

1.997858

2003

1.63784

0.381888

0.00665

 

 

1.94652

2004

1.575609

0.384042

0.006069

 

 

1.895181

2005

1.520787

0.385778

0.006039

 

 

1.843843

2006

1.44588

0.3375

0.005127

 

 

1.792504

2007

1.41813

0.342556

0.004617

 

 

1.741166

2008

1.239821

0.345797

0.002192

1.53

1.499186

1.689828

2009

1.21035

0.349199

0.002192

1.48

1.447853

1.638489

2010

1.183473

0.352602

0.002192

1.44

1.39829

1.587151

2011

1.156893

0.355924

0.002192

1.40

1.348419

1.535812

2012

1.132241

0.3591

0.002192

1.35

1.300044

1.484474

Emissions relative to 2007 projection are 0.2 Mt CO2-e higher over CP1

Average annual historical growth= -2.1%

Average annual projected growth= -3.0%

3.6 Emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry

Net removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (total removals less deforestation emissions) were provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF 2008b, included here as Appendix C).

Net carbon dioxide removals by forests consistent with afforestation, re-afforestation and deforestation activities under the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3, minus any deforestation emissions, are projected to be 67.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide. This is an increase of 9.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent of removals over the first commitment period. The increase is explained as follows:

  • In 2007, projected deforestation emissions, in the absence of any policy intervention, was 41.0 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent for the first commitment period. The government’s stated policy since 2002 has been to cap the liability from deforestation emissions at or below 21.0 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. The 21.0 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent figure was used in the 2007 net position projection. In 2008, emissions from deforestation are projected to be 16.9 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent over the first commitment period. Projected emissions from deforestation have fallen by 24.1 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. The overall effect on the net position as compared with the 2007 report is a reduction in the deficit of 4.1 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MAF 2008b).

  • An increase of 5.1 million tonnes carbon dioxide in the estimate of emissions removals is due to a change in methodology as recommended by an international review of the 2007 projections (AEA Technology 2007). The method now combines all factors affecting projected removals in a single model rather than treating each factor separately.

3.7 Emissions from solvents and other products

Solvent and other products emissions are less than 0.1 per cent of total emissions; they are projected by a simple linear trend by the Ministry for the Environment and included in the estimate of the net position deficit for completeness.