View all publications

Modelling the transition to a lower net emissions New Zealand: Uncertainty analysis

Publication date:  May 2019
Publication reference number:  CR 341

Stage 1 report (interim results) 

The modelling examines pathways that lower New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from current levels to two alternative long-term targets of 25 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2050 (around a 60% reduction from 1990 levels) and a more ambitious target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Stage 1 report on our website

Stage 2 report 

The Productivity Commission and the Ministry for the Environment contracted a consortium of organisations (‘CMV’) with experience in modelling and the economics of climate change mitigation to undertake modelling of New Zealand’s transition to a low-emissions economy. The modelling examines pathways from the present to the two 2050 emissions reduction targets.

Stage 2 of CMV modelling builds on Stage 1 to include the possibility that decision-makers can adjust their strategies at a point in the future when they have additional information about technological progress and other factors such as the pace of climate action internationally.

Stage 2 report on Productivity Commission's website