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Figure A3.12: Effect on probability of extreme daily winter rainfall at Auckland for an increase in the beta parameter of the gamma distribution, but no change in the alpha parameter

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The lines on this figure show the probability (on a logarithmic scale) of a particular daily rainfall amount at Whenuapai, Auckland, under the present climate (lower solid line), and for a changed climate at 2100 with a 40 percent increase in the beta parameter but with no change in the shape parameter. For both lines, the probability decreases as the daily rainfall amount increases. At 2100, extreme winter rainfalls could be up to 10 times more likely than is the case for the present climate, but for small daily totals, the two lines are similar.