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Figure A3.5: Projected changes in annual mean rainfall (in %) for 2090, relative to 1990 for the first six individual climate models for A1B emission scenario

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This figure comprises 12 maps of New Zealand, each showing projected change in annual mean rainfall for one of the 12 models.

The models show a wide range of projected changes in rainfall for New Zealand.

Model cccma_cgcm3 shows the least projected change. Increases of 0 to 5 percent are expected for Southland, South Otago, and the north-west of the South Island along with eastern Northland and most of the eastern part of the North Island. Greater increases of 5 to 10 percent are shown for the remainder of the South Island and parts of East Cape. Decreases of 0 to -5 percent are shown for the western half of the North Island as far south as the Manawatu.

Model mpi_echam5 shows increases of up to 25 percent for the West Coast of the South Island and Southland. Lesser increases of up to 15 percent are shown for Otago, the top of the South Island and Taranaki/Waikato/Manawatu. Decreases of up to -20 percent are expected for the rest of the country with the greatest decreases in Northland, from East Cape down through the Wairarapa and in the Kaikoura coastal region.  

The patterns of change seen in the csiro_mk30 model are quite different from that of the model miroc32_hires. The csiro_mk30 model has decreases in rainfall over the North Island and the north of the South Island of around -5 percent, with a small increase in precipitation over the southwest of the South Island of up to 10 percent. In contrast the model has small increases over the North Island of around 5 percent and significant increase over the South Island of up to 20 percent.