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Figure A3.4: Projected changes in annual mean rainfall (in %) for 2040, relative to 1990 for the first six individual climate models for A1B emission scenario

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This figure comprises 12 maps of New Zealand, each showing projected change in annual mean rainfall for one of the 12 models.

The models show a wide range of projected changes in rainfall for New Zealand.

Model ncar_ccsm30 shows the least projected change. Increases of 5-10 percent are shown for the eastern South Island, most of the eastern North Island and a small patch of eastern Northland. Increases of 0 to 5 percent are shown for the rest of the country with the exception of small patches at the top of the Southern Alps, in South Waikato/Northern Taranaki and in the Manawatu where decreases of 0 to -5 percent are shown.

Model miroc32_hires shows the greatest projected change with a gradient of increases in the west moving across the country to become decreases in the west. Two patches in the northern and southern West Coast of the South Island show an increase of up to 20 percent. Lesser increases of up to 15 percent are shown for the rest of the West Coast, Southland and Otago together with the western half of the North Island below Auckland.  Blenheim through to Canterbury, Northland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and the region from East Cape down through to the Wairarapa show decreases of up to -15 percent.

The most contrasting modelled patterns are for the miroc32_hires and miub_echog models. The miroc32_hires model has increases in rainfall over the west and south of the South Island of around 10 percent with decreases in the east of both islands and over Northland of around -5 percent. The miub_echog has a relatively uniform pattern with a decrease of around -5 percent for most places.