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Figure A3.3: Projected changes in annual mean temperature (in °C) for 2090, relative to 1990 for the first six individual climate models for A1B emission scenario

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This figure comprises 12 maps of New Zealand, each showing projected change in mean annual temperature for one of the 12 models.

The models show a wide range of projected changes in temperature for New Zealand.

The model csiro_mk30 shows the least projected increase. It projects an increase of up to 1.4 degrees for the majority of the South Island, lower North Island, Waikato and parts of Northland and Taranaki. Lesser increases of up to 1 degree are projected for the remainder of the country.  

The model miroc32_hires shows the greatest projected temperature increase. Increases of up to 4.2 degrees are projected from the top of the North Island through to the Waikato. Increases of up to 3.8 degrees are expected for the rest of the North Island and for the north of the South Island. South of Christchurch and Karamea increases of up to 3.4 degrees are projected.  For Stewart Island and a small reach of Fiordland up to 3 degrees is anticipated.

Most of the models have slightly smaller increases in the south than the north. The greatest range is for the miroc32_hires model which has a change of around 2.5 degrees in the south to 3.5 degrees around the south of the North Island.