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Figure A3.1: Explained variance of downscaling regression equation for the winter months (June, July, August), for mean monthly temperature (TMea, left panel) and monthly precipitation (Rain, right panel)

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This figure comprises 2 maps of New Zealand, each showing the skill of the downscaling approach using the percentage explained variance of mean monthly temperature and rainfall.

For the temperature plot, most of the North Island has an explained variance of 60 percent, with Hauraki, southern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne showing around 55 percent. For the South Island, the Southern Alps have an explained variance of around 40 percent, Otago and Nelson has around 50 percent explained variance, and Southland, Canterbury, Marlborough around 60 percent.

For the rainfall map, the west of the South Island has an explained variance of around 40 percent in the south rising to over 60 percent for Buller. Southland has an explained variance of around 50 percent, with Otago and South Canterbury around 20 percent, North Canterbury and Kaikoura around 40 percent. Marlborough and Nelson have around 20 percent explained variance. Over the North Island, Wellington has around 40 percent explained variance, Wairarapa around 50 percent, Manawatu around 40 percent, Taranaki around 50 percent, Waikato up to 60 percent, Hawkes Bay, Gisborne and the Bay of Plenty have around 30 percent. South Auckland has around 50 percent, with North Auckland and Northland around 20 percent.