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Figure 5.2: An example of a detailed scenario analysis showing changes in the area suitable for kiwifruit in the Bay of Plenty, using a range of scenarios over a 100-year timeframe

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Detailed scenario analysis showing change in the area suitable for kiwifruit production in the Bay of Plenty for the period 1990 to 2100, using six different climate scenarios. For each scenario, there is little change expected until about 2040 or 2050, when for five of the six scenarios show a steady decline in area suitable for kiwifruit to the end of the 21st century. These scenarios indicate, that just ten to twenty percent of the area presently used for kiwifruit production will still be suitable by 2100. The sixth scenario (with lowest climate sensitivity and smallest emissions) shows no appreciable change in area is likely.