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Table 4.3: Data, sources of information and assessment capabilities relating to the effects of climate change

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Natural resource

Key climate influence

Source of information

Assessment capabilities

Water

 

Models

NIWA ‘Topnet model’, MIKE11; Lincoln Environmental (irrigation model)

Databases

Regional council water quality and quantity databases; National HIRDS dataset; National Climate Database; National River Water Quality and Quantity Network and Database; National Hydrometric Database

Good predictive capability in most cases

Rivers

 

  • flooding

Peak rainfall and/or flows and/or levels

  • water quality

Seasonal rainfall and/or flows and temperature

Lakes

 

  • lake levels

Rainfall

  • water quality

Seasonal rainfall and temperature

  • ecosystems

Decadal rainfall and temperature

Wetlands

 

  • ecosystems

Decadal rainfall and temperature

Groundwater

 

  • irrigation

Seasonal to decadal rainfall

Water quality

Daily to monthly temperature, rainfall

Drainage

Rainfall, groundwater levels, land use

Storm water and waste water drainage

Hourly peak rainfall

Water supply and irrigation

Rainfall and/or flows, projected demands

Land

 

Models

CLIMEX (developed in Australia to predict distributions of insect pests); Landcare Research have a range of models for predicting biodiversity changes and ecosystem responses; CLIMsystems (an evolution of CLIMPACTS); Hotspots (mosquitoes)

Databases

National vegetation survey, soil and land databases (Landcare Research)

Some predictive modelling capability exists, principally in the science community. In many cases, it will be necessary to gather biological and physical data over a period of time.

Erosion

Rainfall

Biodiversity

Decadal rainfall and temperature

Biosecurity

Seasonal to decadal rainfall and temperature

Coast

 

Models

Various dynamic 1-, 2- and 3-D models and empirical models

Databases

Sea levels, winds, waves, tides, sea surface temperature, beach profiles

Variable

Inundation
Erosion
Saltwater intrusion into rivers and water supplies

Long-term changes in sea level
Increase in storm intensity and frequency
Changes in sediment supply
Changes in wave climate

Air

 

Models
CALPUFF and other dispersion models; TAPM
Databases
National Air Quality (NIWA/MfE) and National Climate Database

Specific modelling capability limited to a small number of experts
Limited current data at relevant scales

Air quality

Hourly temperature
Hourly wind speed and direction
Hourly solar radiation

General

24-hour to seasonal weather extremes (temperature, rainfall, wind, snow)

 

 

Natural hazards

Note: HIRDS is the High Intensity Rainfall Design System available on CD from NIWA, or (HIRDS Version 3) via the NIWA website.