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Figure A3.8: Level of agreement between models on summer (left) and winter (right) precipitation changes to 2090

Each map gives the number of models, out of 12, that indicate decreased precipitation in the season shown.

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Figure A3.8 shows 2 maps of NZ.

The left hand map depicts the numbers of models with a decrease in summer rainfall by 2090. Most of the South Island has less than 4 models with a decrease in summer rainfall by 2090. Eastern Southland has 7 models with the decrease,  and areas along the Alps have around 6 models with a decrease. The North Island has around 6 to 8 models with a decrease in the west, but Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay and Gisborne have less than 4 models with a decrease in summer rainfall.

The right hand map depicts the numbers of models with a decrease in winter rainfall by 2090. All of the South Island has less than 3 models with a winter decrease, except for coastal Canterbury and Kaikoura, which has greater than 9. Similarly, the North Island generally has less than 3 models with a decrease in winter rainfall, except for eastern areas (Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay and Gisborne) and Northland.