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Table 58: Sensitivity test low agricultural GM, high capex, Net present value of options (7.5% discount rate, 30 year period of analysis) ($million)

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Scenario (All Agricultural Assumptions lower bound)

National

Regional

Regional Primary Production

Regional Energy

New Hydro only, Low Agricultural Contraction Assumptions

$310.1m

$912.9m

-$41.8m

$954.7m

New Hydro only, Mid Agricultural Contraction Assumptions

$309.7m

$912.5m

-$42.3m

$954.7m

New Hydro only, High Agricultural Contraction Assumptions

$296.1m

$898.9m

-$55.8m

$954.7m

All Irrigation Demands (no New Hydro)

-$177.2m

-$177.2m

-$41.8m

-$135.5m

All Irrigation Demands >5% IRRa(no New Hydro)

-$60.8m

-$60.8m

-$49.6m

-$11.2m

Takes above Tekapo (no New Hydro)

-$46.4m

-$46.4m

$42.0m

-$88.4m

Takes above Ohau (no New Hydro)

-$46.2m

-$46.2m

-$14.8m

-$31.4m

Takes above Benmore (no New Hydro)

-$5.4m

-$5.4m

-$1.9m

-$3.5m

Takes Below Waitaki Dam (no New Hydro)

-$24.2m

-$24.2m

-$24.2m

$0.0m

Below Waitaki integrated w.New Hydro

$246.9m

$849.7m

-$48.0m

$897.6m

 

 

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