Appendix C Agricultural Assumptions Used - High Regional Development Scenario
The land use scenario chosen was generated based on:
- a reduction in grazing, with the remaining grazing production based on high returning systems. Processing remained at proportionately the same level
- an increase in horticulture. A very high value model crop was chosen with high returns to landholders. Current levels of processing were maintained, with all processing carried out in the region
- viticulture was assumed to reach the size of a Gisborne, or about half the size of Marlborough over the study period (~2000ha). All processing was carried out in the region
- arable cropping with high levels of processed vegetable and seed production, and all soils suitable for arable production were utilised. All processing was carried out in the region.
It should be noted that this scenario is not seen as having a high probability of eventuating. It is possible that some of the land uses will turn out as indicated, but the probability that the entire scenario will come to fruition is low. Furthermore it is not obvious that parts of the scenario are dependent on new allocations of water to scheme irrigation. The very high value horticulture and viticulture operations may be locatable on existing irrigated areas, or may be able to access water through other means. This would particularly be the case if water trading were in operation.
A scheme description of this scenario is given in Table 33, and the results of the impact analysis have been added to a diagram as for Figure 2.
Table 34. Scheme description and land use sssumptions for high regional development scenario
