4 Social Impacts
4.1 Irrigation and social change
There is very little social impact data specific to the upper Waitaki. However, it is known that irrigation can transform society as well as land and landscapes (Taylor et al, 2003).
Taylor describes three "waves" of development which characteristically occur through irrigation development.
- Firstly, existing pastoral farmers move to improve their traditional farming base.
- Secondly, new-generation farmers enter into major irrigation investment. They increase stock numbers and productivity but generally stay with the same production base.
- Thirdly, widespread changes in land use and farm ownership take place which include conversion to dairying and other intensive land use options.
Irrigation schemes generally stimulate population growth, help arrest population decline and by so doing help maintain the rolls of rural schools. It may also provide increased employment to the area provided the new land uses contribute more on farm jobs than existing forms of agricultural production. Combined, these factors help maintain social networks and sustain community vitality.
While there is only limited social impact data for the upper Waitaki, it is reasonable to assume that social changes, along the lines that have been found in other areas that have undergone a shift to large scale irrigation, will occur if the proposed irrigation schemes proceed (Taylor, personal communication).
4.2 Irrigation social costs and benefits
A broad-based assessment of the social impacts of irrigation has been completed as part of a regional economic analysis on the uses of water in the Waitaki Catchment (Harris et al, 2004). According to Taylor (personal communication), who was one of the authors of the Harris report, the analysis undertaken provides only a broad indication of the likely social impacts of irrigation in the Mackenzie Basin and the results need to be interpreted with care.
Under the scenarios used in the Harris report dairy conversion is projected to account for 30 percent of the projected land use change. Conversion to dairying to this extent is not expected in the Mackenzie Basin because of climatic limitations (Taylor, personal communication). Nevertheless some of the social changes expected in the wider catchment will also apply to the Mackenzie Basin. These include:
- more intensive use of existing grazing properties by some current owners.
- other current owners converting to dairying or dairy support
- some older farmers, particularly of smaller dryland grazing properties, selling to purchasers who will convert the properties to dairy production
- an inflow of newcomers to the district to purchase properties and work on the farms
- the arrest of rural decline in non-irrigated areas and strengthened viability of educational, health and other community services in nearby townships
- the age structure of both the residential population and the farmers and farm workers occupational group is likely to become more youthful
- value conflicts between dryland farmers and dairy farmers because of their different lifestyle, work routines and rates of community participation
- participation in community activities and membership of voluntary organisations and clubs may decline in the short term, as newcomers adjust to their new circumstances, but strengthen in the longer term
- value conflicts between some urban residents and farming communities over the environmental impacts of intensive farming systems
- lag effects as the service sector in rural areas adjusts to the supply of new irrigation farming systems.
According to Harris et al (2004), irrigation should have a positive effect on the demographics of the Waitaki valley and would arrest the expected population decline. The additional population and employment will not only stimulate economic growth in the region by increasing the value of production, but also strengthen its social structure and networks through ensuring the voluntary organisations and essential services such as health and education are more viable.
The Harris report uses a multiplier of 2.5 per FTE to estimate population changes associated with the move to irrigation. Using these figures an assessment of the potential employment gain from irrigating an additional 25,000 hectares was made. The assessment indicated an increase of approximately 300 to 400 full time equivalent (FTE) employees directly employed in agriculture (70/cumec) and an associated population gain of approximately 800 to 900 people (180/cumec) (see Tables 2 and 3).
The potential impact at farm level has been demonstrated by Fastier (2003). Presently one labour unit is employed to run 2670 stock units on an area of 3800 hectares. It is estimated that under irrigation this area would be capable of running 50,000 stock units on an annual basis. With an automated irrigation system each employee would be capable of running around 4500 stock units on 400 hectares. There would be a minimum of 10 full-time employee positions created on the property. In addition there would be significant amounts of work created for trucking companies, fertiliser companies and agricultural servicing firms.
While not specific and detailed, the information provided does indicate that the social impacts of further irrigation would generally be positive.
