10 Future Recreation and Tourism Trends
10.1 Future recreation trends
Recreation activities are likely to become more intensified in the future as people attempt to cram more experiences into shorter amounts of time. Recreation is also likely to be experienced by an increasingly aging population. These two factors are likely to increase popularity of recreation activities in the Waitaki Catchment.
Use of lakes for water sports during summer periods is predicted to increase in use. Other mechanised activities such as mountain biking, four-wheel driving and jet skis which allow participants to experience greater areas of countryside in shorter spaces of time and will take people to more areas of the catchment. The impacts on these areas is likely to be increased. If stream beds are not protected by water flows the impacts will be even greater. New technologies that come on to the market may also add to environmental and social recreation impacts. Tramping shows evidence of more condensed activities with more visitors opting for shorter rather than longer tramps.
The ageing population is not likely to retire to sedentary lifestyles as they have in the past. It is quite likely that future retiring generations will return to recreation activities they engaged in during their youth, potentially at a slower pace or in a modified form. This is likely to return more fishers, hunters and even skiers to activities they had time for before constraints placed on time from raising families and earning a living limited leisure time. Use by more older users and continued use by younger recreationists who traditionally make up the highest proportion of users is likely to increase demand on opportunities.
Pastoral lease tenure review is likely to provide more opportunities for users to experience. A larger recreation estate is also likely to increase demand for use of the area.
Skiing is planned to continue to grow due to the development of snow making that will increase confidence in opening days and skier days during the season.
10.2 Future tourism trends
10.2.1 New Zealand tourism forecasts 2004-10
Tourism Research Council New Zealand (prepared in 2004)
The best information on future tourism trends in New Zealand is provided by the Tourism Research Council. Their latest report makes a prediction out to 2010.
International visitor arrivals reached an all-time high of 2.10 million in 2003, up 2.9% from 2.05 million in 2002. Total arrivals are expected to reach 2.48 million in 2005, increasing further to 3.12 million by 2010. This represents a total increase of 48.3% (1.02 million arrivals) and an average increase of 5.8% per annum.
Seasonal patterns for international tourism have not changed much in the 'peak' season from 1 November to 31 March. However, long stays in the summer months result in 55-58% of visitor nights being spent in New Zealand during the peak season (Tourism Research Council New Zealand (TRCNZ), 2004c, p. 5).
Source: New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2004-2010 (p. 7)
International visitors spent a total of 44.4 million nights in New Zealand in 2003, up 1.8% from 43.6 million nights in 2002. Total nights are expected to reach 50.3 million in 2005, increasing further to 65.9 million by 2010. This represents a total increase of 48.6% (22.3 million nights) and an average increase of 5.8% per annum.
The average length of stay in 2003 was 21.1 nights up from 18.3 nights in 1996. Average length of stay is expected to fall to 20.2 nights in 2005, before recovering to 21.1 nights by 2010.
Source: New Zealand Tourism Forecasts 2004-2010 (p. 8)
International visitors spent a total of $6.38 billion in New Zealand in 2003, up 3.9% from $6.14 billion in 2002. Total expenditure is expected to reach $7.52 billion in 2005, increasing further to $11.27 billion by 2010. This represents a total increase of 76.6% ($4.89 billion) and an average increase of 8.5% per annum.
New Zealanders made 19.6 million domestic overnight trips in 2003. Domestic trips are expected to reach 20.0 million in 2005 increasing further to 21.6 million by 2010. This represents a total increase of 10.4% (2.0 million trips) and an average increase of 1.4% per annum. (TRCNZ, 2004c, p. 5)
New Zealand regional tourism forecasts 2004-2010, Mackenzie Regional Tourism Organisation (Tourism Research Council)
For the purposes of the 2004 forecasting programme, the Mackenzie Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) has been defined as comprising the Mackenzie District territorial authority.
Mackenzie RTO has a resident population of 3760 persons (June 2003). Twizel, Fairlie and Tekapo are the main towns as well as the focus of most of the tourism infrastructure. More than half of employment is in tourism focused sectors, particularly accommodation. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 4)
Mackenzie is located in the centre of the South Island and lies between two of New Zealand's popular tourism destinations - Christchurch and Queenstown. As such, it is most often visited by road on this popular route or from the much closer Timaru. Mackenzie has some small domestic airports that are also a popular base for scenic flights in the area. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 10)
Aoraki/Mt Cook is the key driver of the tourism activity - especially international day visitors, but the spectacular scenery, lakes and mountains also support a growing infrastructure for recreational activity. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 4)
International visitors made a total of 283,000 day and overnight visits to the Mackenzie RTO in 2003, staying a total of 370,000 visitor nights and spending a total of $60 million. Domestic visitors made a total of 745,000 day and overnight visits to the RTO, staying 503,000 visitor nights and spending a total of $97 million. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
In total, Mackenzie attracted 357,000 overnight visitors in 2003, 670,000 day visitors, 873,000 visitor nights and $157 million in tourism expenditure for the RTO. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
By 2010, total overnight visits to the Mackenzie RTO are expected to increase by 33.4% to 476,000 and total day visits are expected to increase by 11.2% to 745,000. Total nights are expected to similarly increase to 1.09 million (24.9%), and visitor expenditure to $243 million by 2010 (54.8%). (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
Mackenzie visitor nights are dominated by holiday travellers (53% of all Mackenzie nights in 2003). Holiday nights in the RTO are projected to grow by 28.1% to reach 597,000 by 2010 (1.0% of total New Zealand holiday nights). Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel is also significant (227,000 nights in 2003, 26% of the RTO total). The contributions from business, education and other travel are smaller in percentage terms, though still generate 180,000 visitor nights overall. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
Most of Mackenzie's commercial visitor nights are spent in hotel accommodation (49%), followed by motels (41%). Backpacker and hosted accommodation and caravan parks/ camping grounds handle the remaining 10%. Mackenzie RTO establishments accounted for 1.6% of New Zealand's total hotel guest nights, and 1.4% of motel guest nights in 2003. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
Mackenzie's share of total New Zealand visitor nights and expenditure is not expected to increase by 2010 - even though there is a slight increase in Mackenzie's share of total RTO visits. By 2010, international visitors will account for 51% of total nights in the RTO (currently 42%) and 44% of total expenditure (currently 38%). (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 2)
The RTO's outlook is for reasonably steady growth throughout the forecast period, and while international tourist nights will soon surpass domestic, there is only limited change anticipated by 2010 in average length of stay and the mix of day and overnight visitors. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 3)
Domestic visitors spend, on average, a longer time in Mackenzie (3.7 nights) than do international visitors (1.7 nights), and this pattern is expected to persist to 2010. The difference is in part due to the differences in visitor mix, with longer stay holiday, VFR and business related travel by domestic visitors, compared to the shorter holiday-focused visits by internationals. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 3)
Mackenzie attracts 610,000 domestic day visits, many of which will be by local residents travelling within the RTO, but also from towns/cities in surrounding areas. International day visits are fewer, though are by definition incidental to the overnight travel of international visitors. International travellers will drive 83.8% of the growth in Mackenzie visitor nights to 2010, with major contributions overall from the United Kingdom, Australia and North East Asia markets. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 3)
Overall, average expenditure per visitor is expected to increase steadily, from $314 in 2003 to $379 by 2010 for overnight visitors. (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 3)
While domestic spending rates are projected to grow faster than international, Mackenzie's overseas visitors still spend considerably more ($211 per visitor, 2003) than domestic ($131 per visitor, 2003). (Tourism Research Council, 2004b, p. 3)
10.2.2 Predicted trends for tourism activities in the Waitaki Catchment
The development of the Mackenzie Heritage Centre in Tekapo (2006) will attract more visitors (estimated 200,000 visitors) to stay in the upper catchment.
Skiing is currently a significant attraction for many New Zealanders. Growth in this activity and subsequent accommodation for winter visitors is likely to stimulate year round tourism growth. This is likely to be beneficial for existing operators such as heli-bike and scenic flight operators. Growth is also likely to stimulate new tourism activities in the area.
Review of high country pastoral leases is likely to bring further land under DoC's management. This will provide further recreation opportunities and is likely to enhance the overall reputation of the area as a place for outdoor recreation activity.
Fishing is likely to grow as an overseas tourist activity as the New Zealand Pure marketing attracts increased visitor numbers.
Lake-based water sports, typical of New Zealand summer holidays are likely to increase in popularity as they are currently reported to grow each year.
The Vanished World initiative is an example of how future tourist development could occur in the lower Waitaki. It is a community driven project that is based on strong cooperative partnerships and community support. Other tourism initiatives based on the same principles are likely to be equally successful.
Tourism development based on significant industries such as viticulture have also been proposed. There is immense potential to develop a tourism industry that plays to the existing strengths of the area, including nature based experiences and local culture and heritage. There are many interesting stories and nature based recreation activities to be experienced in the lower catchment including the social history of the dams, the experiences to be had on the river, and physical activities such as walking, biking and climbing.
Summer holiday experiences for New Zealanders camping and enjoying the lakes is already a considerable tourist market and is likely to be sustained in the lower catchment.
