Development of a Regional Waste Recovery / Processing Sector

Acknowledgements

Executive summary

1. Introduction

2. Total waste stream and quantities of plastic, glass and tyres

3. Projected waste quantities

4. Reprocessing technologies for tyres

5. Reprocessing technologies for plastic

6. Reprocessing technology for glass

7. Conclusion

References

Appendix A: Template for Assessing the Regional Suitability of Waste Reprocessing Technologies for Tyres, Plastic and Glass

Appendix B: Major European PET and HDPE Reprocessors

3. Projected waste quantities

3.1 Waste Stream Trends without Minimisation

This section addresses the implications associated with future changes in the observed waste stream quantities, without the effect of any waste minimisation programmes or initiatives. The likely impacts of waste minimisation are considered separately.

The factors affecting waste generation are complex and can be related to a range of factors that include social economic status, population dynamics and cultural behaviour, for example. In the Sixth Environmental Action Programme entitled Environment 2010: Our Future, Our Choice, the EU gives strategic direction for environmental policy and highlights four priority areas where improvements are required, one of which includes waste (European Commission, 2001). The focus for the EU is on discontinuing the association that exists between the systematic increase in waste arisings and economic growth. It is envisaged that this will be primarily achieved by improved environmental performance throughout a product's life cycle and to stimulate growth in the production of greener products and consumer demand. In addition, proposals have included the targeting of specific waste streams such as sludges and biodegradable wastes and the introduction of new innovative instruments such as taxes and incentives to aid legislative provisions with the aim of increasing participation in sustainable waste management practices (European Commission², 2001).

Generically the composition of the residential and industrial waste streams has changed temporally. The main variation is that the composition of the both waste streams has become less dense and more voluminous with the major constituents now comprising non biodegradable material such as plastic packaging and biodegradable materials such as paper and cardboard, for example. The variation in composition of the waste stream inherently affects the various types and quantities of materials that can be diverted from landfill, reprocessed and reused.

In addition to the variation in the composition of waste over time, in the UK it has also been observed that a wide variation in the composition of household waste is evident in different locations across the country. This is primarily the result of contrasting socio-economic conditions that affect the disposable income and lifestyle choices of the residents of a given area. For example, analysis of the household waste stream in an affluent area of London demonstrated a comparatively large proportion of paper/board. This was attributed to greater personal computer ownership, increased number of occupants working from home computers, greater number of newspapers purchased or more junk mail circulated. Conversely, an area of Belfast that experiences a significantly lower social economic status has a lower proportion of paper/board, but has a far greater proportion of miscellaneous combustibles. This primarily comprises disposable nappies, which is attributed to social and demographic factors such as large families, as opposed to the London suburb that consisted of a more mature age structure due to the relatively high cost associated with purchasing housing stock. An additional example of social economic status affecting household waste composition in the UK is the relative quantity of certain products consumed in a given area. For example, in the more affluent London suburb an increased proportion of glass was present due to increased consumption of wine. Conversely, however a significantly higher proportion of steel cans was evident in lower social economic status areas resulting from greater consumption of canned foods. It is evident therefore that the composition of the waste stream is not uniform across a given area or region and variations are observed depending on a range of social, cultural and economic factors (DoE, 1995).

When looking at projected waste quantities in New Zealand it is necessary to take into account population forecasts and existing waste flows. Wellington Regional Council have predicted the following population forecasts for the study area are as follows:

Table 3.1: Population forecasts for Wellington region 1996-2013

Area		Year					Change for period
		1996	2001	2006	2011	2016
Kapiti	Projected population	38583	42447	46163	49916	53669	15086
	% growth for period		10.01	8.75	8.13	7.52	34.41
Porirua City	Projected population	46626	47370	49430	49842	50782	4156
	% growth for period		1.60	4.35	0.83	1.89	8.67
Upper Hutt	Projected population	36717	36372	37569	37316	37488	771
	% growth for period		-0.94	3.29	-0.67	0.46	2.14
Lower Hutt	Projected population	95871	95475	98433	98730	99756	3885
	% growth for period		-0.41	3.10	0.30	1.04	4.03
Wellington	Projected population	157722	163827	174093	181787	190093	32371
	% growth for period		3.87	6.27	4.42	4.57	19.13
Masterton	Projected population	22758	22617	22698	22724	22749	-9
	% growth for period		-0.62	0.36	0.11	0.11	0.04
Carterton	Projected population	6813	6849	6823	6813	6802	-11
	% growth for period		0.53	-0.38	-0.15	-0.16	-0.16
South Wairarapa	Projected population	8937	8742	8531	8324	8117	-820
	% growth for period		-2.18	-2.41	-2.43	-2.49	-9.51
Total for region	Projected population	414027	423699	443740	455450	469456	55429
	% growth for period		2.34	4.73	2.64	3.08	12.79
	% growth per annum		0.47%	0.95	0.51	0.62

(Wellington Regional Council, 2002)

Long term population growth for the Wellington region is projected to be 12.8%. When comparing individual local authorities population growth it is likely to be highest in Kapiti Coast and Wellington with 34 % and 19% growth, respectively, followed by Porirua (8.6%), Lower Hutt(2.1%) and Upper Hutt (4.03%) Cities. Population decline is limited to Carterton and South Wairarapa.

In New Zealand the link between economic conditions (affecting individual wealth) and waste generation is well recognised, including in The New Zealand Waste Strategy. That Strategy refers to recent comments by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD):

"Despite nearly 30 years of environmental and waste policy efforts in OECD countries, the OECD-wide increase in waste generation is in direct proportion to economic growth. A 40 percent increase in OECD GDP since 1980 has been accompanied by a 40 percent increase in municipal waste during the same period".

A major thrust of more recent publications such as the Lifeafterwaste study is to remove the link between waste generation and changes in GDP (i.e. producing more waste as we become more affluent). However, for the purposes of this study it was also considered relevant to allow for changes in the base waste quantities according to economic trends, independent of the effect of waste minimisation in reducing waste generation.

Over the past year economic growth in the Wellington region has tended to lag behind the rest of New Zealand (National Bank Regional Trends March, 2003). To some extent this has reflected the impact in other regions of factors such as agriculture sector exports and immigration, which have a relatively lesser impact in the Wellington region, and the growth in the new ICT and creative sectors in the region not keeping pace with the losses of head offices etc north. In the short term, indicators point towards a relatively modest but steady rate of economic growth (2% compared with 2.2% for New Zealand overall - Budget estimates 2003/NZIER (Quarterly Predictions March, 2003)) .

Wellington City is currently engaged in a planning study of potential growth in the northern part of the City. Approximately one-third of the City's population growth is forecast to be in the northern area that can be considered to be currently serviced by the Northern Landfill. In terms of business growth - the area is primarily retail and associated centres services. There is a small area of warehousing at Grenada North that is at capacity. The northern growth plan process identified the potential for a business park near the motorway with potential access to the Hutt, covering approximately 50 ha - with potential employee growth to 2000 people. This is expected to be warehousing (no big box retail) and 'business park' type activities. The real estate sector argues that there is significant demand for this and that it wouldn't be taken up elsewhere. It is estimated that the area would be fully taken up in 10-15 years.

The potential commercial expansion in the northern part of Wellington is likely to the focus of future commercial growth in the City and would add to demand for waste services in that area, with potential demand for replacement services in the area when Northern Landfill closes. However, given that the likely warehousing and commercial nature of the development is unlikely to add a major local source of waste, the potential changes in waste quantities related to economic growth can be considered on a wider City and regional basis for the purposes of assessing waste quantities. It is anticipated therefore that changes in the total waste stream (setting aside waste minimisation programmes) in the Wellington are not likely to be particularly affected by population changes or by changes in economic conditions.

3.2 Waste Minimisation

All of the Councils within the study area are committed to programmes of waste minimisation. The effect of these programmes will be to reduce the quantities of waste that would otherwise be generated as a result of economic growth and to divert increased quantities of material from landfill. The exact effect of waste minimisation programmes is not certain, and may vary depending on a range of factors that include the level of expenditure available for such programmes in each City, public participation responses and the implementation of supporting national initiatives such as legislation, levies and taxes.

In order to promote waste minimisation consistently across the country the New Zealand Waste Strategy includes a number of waste minimisation targets for specific waste streams. These include organic, construction and demolition, special, hazardous, organochlorines and trade wastes. Examples of which have been included below:

• By December 2005, 60 % of garden wastes will be diverted from landfill and beneficially used, and by December 2010, the diversion of garden wastes from landfill to beneficial use will have exceeded 95 %;
• By December 2010, the diversion of commercial organic wastes from landfill to beneficial use will have exceeded 95 %;
• By December 2008, there will have been a reduction of construction and demolition waste to landfills of 50 % of December 2005 levels measured by weight;
• By December 2005, businesses in at least eight different sectors will have introduced extended producer responsibility pilot programmes for the collection and reuse, recycling, or appropriate treatment and disposal of at least eight categories of special wastes.
• By December 2004, hazardous wastes will be appropriately treated before disposal at licensed facilities, and current recovery and recycling rates will be established for a list of priority hazardous wastes.
• By December 2020, the average body burdens of dioxins will have been reduced to 10 % of present day levels.
• By December 2005, all territorial local authorities will ensure that all holders of new or renewed trade waste permits will have in place a recognised waste minimisation and management programme.
• In addition to the above an additional range of targets are included in The National Waste Strategy that relate specifically to waste minimisation. These include:
• By December 2005, at least 10 major businesses will be participating alongside central and local government in developing and promoting waste minimisation programmes within their sector;
• By December 2005 95 % of the population will have access to community recycling facilities;
• By December 2005, all councils will ensure that procedures for waste minimisation have been addressed for all facilities and assets they manage and will have set target reductions based on public health, environmental and economic factors.
• By December 2010, all regional councils will ensure that at least 25 % of all existing industrial resource consent holders have in place a recognised waste minimisation and management programme.

It can be seen that while none of the above targets specifically relate to the waste streams under investigation, it is apparent that waste minimisation and management issues will increasingly be at the forefront of the national and local agenda. It is envisaged therefore that as more resources are directed towards specific waste streams and generic waste minimisation initiatives increased diversion rates and improved economies of scale will be achieved. However, there are insufficient data available to make valid estimates of the impact on the waste stream of any potential trend for waste minimisation. The historic trends in the individual waste streams are not clear, although it has been noted that the kg/capita of plastic packaging in the waste stream in increasing despite less raw material being used in the manufacture of individual plastic bottles, for example. Meanwhile as the overall recycling figures for packaging increase the trend in the quantity of packaging being landfilled is also increasing, indicating that increased quantities of plastic packaging are being consumed.

Forecasts of population growth in the region, especially outside Wellington City, indicate that this will continue to be low. Economic growth is also expected to remain steady at around current levels of 2%. Although new policies are looking to "decouple" growth from environmental impacts* historic experience indicates that waste quantities are most directly related to economic factors. In this connection it is anticipated that in the short term economic growth in the region will remain relatively stable and that growth in solid and other wastes will also be low.

* Recent waste management initiatives such as the New Zealand Waste Strategy and Lifeafterwaste have identified the need to break the link that exists between economic activity and waste generation in order to implement more effective waste reduction initiatives.