Understanding climate change.

• Protecting New Zealand
• The science of climate change
• New Zealand's changing climate
• Climate change impacts on New Zealand
• International action
• What you can do
• The New Zealand government's response
• Our future
• Glossary
• Find out more

New Zealand's changing climate

Climate change could have significant impacts on our economy, environment and society.

Average temperatures are projected to increase about 1°C by around 2040 and about 2.1°C by around 2090 (compared to 1990 levels).

Under moderate projections, it is likely that sea levels will rise 18 to 59cm by 2100. Such a rise would lead to increased coastal erosion, flooding from storms, salinisation of freshwater and drainage problems.

New Zealand can also expect more extreme events to happen in the future, including more droughts in already drought-prone areas, and more floods in regions already vulnerable to flooding.

More rain is likely to fall in the west of the country and less in the east.

We can also expect more episodes of heavy rainfall and for westerly winds to become more prevalent with a greater risk of severe winds and storms.

Studies by New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) predict that in some regions, droughts occurring every 20 years at the moment may occur as often as every five years by the 2080s.

These kinds of changes to our climate will affect many of the things we cherish and depend on, like our native species’ ability to flourish or the kinds of crops we grow. We may also experience new biosecurity risks, such as tropical pests and diseases.

New Zealand’s economy is particularly vulnerable to climate change because our reliance on biologically-based industry (such as agriculture) means we depend on a temperate climate.

Extreme events have a huge cost associated with them. The drought in 1997-98 cost the economy a billion dollars; and the floods of February 2004 are estimated to have cost over $300 million.

Understanding climate change and the likely impacts will help us to protect our communities and businesses. It will also help us identify opportunities arising from a changing climate. For example, changes in the climate may allow new kinds of commercial crops to grow.

There is also a rapidly growing market for technology that is energy efficient or produces less greenhouse gas emissions.

It will take both creativity and foresight to make the best use of these opportunities.

Our emissions

If no action is taken, it is predicted that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions may increase by 30 percent in the next 25 years, and transport-related emissions may increase by 35 percent.

Reducing our emissions without damaging the businesses that are the backbone of our country will be a challenging task. It will require ingenuity and innovation – something New Zealanders are good at.

The government, many councils and businesses are already exploring ways of innovatively reducing emissions. This work includes using renewable energy from sources like the wind and solar power, encouraging biofuel use instead of petrol, researching how methane from cattle can be reduced or captured, and encouraging improved energy efficiency at home and at work.

Many businesses have found that reducing emissions has other benefits, like improving their business practice or saving money on their power bills.

New Zealand and the world

Although New Zealand contributes less than half a percent of the world’s overall emissions, there are many reasons why we should be part of global efforts to tackle climate change.

For a start, if we measure the average emissions produced on an individual basis (ie, per capita), New Zealand came in at 12th in the world in 2000.

We will all be affected by climate change; it is important that we all do our bit to protect our economy, environment and way of life. The cost of delaying action will come at a great cost to the way we live.

We might be a small country but we can still make a difference.

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