Table A4.6: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to air pollution

Energy supply and demand

Reduced direct combustion of fossil fuels

Decreased pressure

Immediate–early

Ongoing effect, becoming more significant as emission costs rise.

Low–moderate
Positive

Energy supply and demand

Fuel switching to wood from electricity, gas and coal

Uncertain to decreased pressure

Immediate–early

Ongoing localised effect; extent will vary depending on location and extent of wood use and extent to which electricity use is displaced; coal to wood improves local air quality; electricity or gas to wood may reduce it, depending on combustion technology.

Moderate
Uncertain to positive

Manufacturing

Reduced activities associated with emissions to air

Decreased pressure

Early–medium

Ongoing and likely to increase as emission price rises. Small effect initially, extent of change depends on extent of changes in production. Potential for significant reductions in locally significant pollutants but also potential for leakage.

Low
Positive

Mining

Reduced activities associated with emissions to air

Decreased pressure

Immediate–early

Ongoing and possibly increasing as emission price rises. Overall effect likely to be very small but possibility of locally significant changes.

Low
Positive

Transport

Reduced use of liquid fossil fuels

Decreased pressure

Medium term

Ongoing while fossil fuels dominate transport fuels. Initial impacts will come from measures such as fuel efficiency and driver education, emission price effects will only become apparent over other price effects as emission price rises.

Moderate
Positive

Transport

Changes in transport patterns

Uncertain

Longer term

ETS-plus measures may lead to changes in transport patterns in specific locations; these are likely to reduce local emissions pressures in some areas and increase them in others.

Low
Uncertain

Transport

Increased use of biofuels

Uncertain

Early

Ongoing, determined initially by biofuels sales obligation (BSO). Biodiesel effects on air quality are largely positive while the impact of bioethanol/petrol blends is less obvious. Balance of effects will depend in part on the balance between different biofuel sources used to meet the BSO.

Moderate–high
Uncertain

Waste

Air quality effects of increased combustion of waste and landfill gas

Increased pressure

Early-medium

Ongoing effect, possibly becoming more significant as emission costs rise. Overall effect of ETS-plus is likely to be small before waste enters scheme in 2013.

Low
Negative