Table A4.2: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to land and soil

Sector	Nature of pressure	Expected direction of change	Expected onset of change	Expected extent and duration of change	Preliminary assessment of policy significance
Agriculture	Short rotation biofuel cultivation causing soil disturbance, soil carbon reduction and soil structural changes	Increased pressure	Before 2013 for crop feed effects	Effect of ETS price signal will increase as 2013 nears; mixed changes in land use and farming practice expected, overall effect on land and soil likely to be positive.	Low Negative
Forestry	Effects on soil erosion and sediment yield	Decreased pressure	Medium	Erosion control benefits increase as trees grow, especially at canopy closure (~8 years). Will continue for duration of ETS-plus incentives.	Moderate Positive
Forestry	Land and soil impacts of periodic harvesting	Increased pressure	Distant	Increased forest area but rotations could be longer. New forests not expected to be harvested for 25–30 years. Effects can be locally significant.	Low Negative
Mining	Mining of coal for domestic use	Decreased pressure	Early–medium	Ongoing. International market could offset reduced domestic demand; in medium term depends on the effectiveness of global efforts in reducing world demand for coal and feasibility of carbon capture and storage technology.	Low Positive
Transport	Land use change due to better urban form and more efficient transport systems	Reduced pressure	Medium to distant	Over time and lasting.	Uncertain/low Mostly positive