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Climate change Scoping Report for an Environmental Assessment of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme and Closely Related Measures Online version
Appendix 4: Significance of Environmental Effects by Environmental Resource
This appendix records the range of potential environmental effects that have been identified during this scoping study and summarise the judgement of the authors in relation to them. The sector and pressure information is drawn from the analysis in the first part of Chapter 3. A preliminary qualitative assessment of each change in environmental pressure against three broad categories is noted:
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Direction – ie, is the expected influence on the state of the environmental resource in question increased pressure on the environment, decreased pressure, mixed or uncertain?
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Onset – ie, how soon is the effect expected to become apparent? “Immediate” means within 12 months of commencement of the ETS legislation, “Early” means during the period 2008-2012, “Medium” means during the period 2013-2020, and “Distant” means around or after 2020.
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Magnitude and duration – ie, how important is the pressure and how is it expected to vary through time?
The final column then records the authors’ preliminary assessment of the policy significance of the change in environmental pressure, drawing together the information in the previous columns. Significance is a qualitative judgement based on the above factors, drawing upon information from a range of sources, including information on the existing state of the environment and the relativity of the possible effect to other expected pressures on the resource during the study period.
Policy significance is broken into four broad categories.
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LOW – the expected change in environmental pressure is not significant. This judgement should be revisited during any review of the ETS but no additional response or further investigation is proposed at the present time.
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MODERATE – the expected change in environmental pressure is of some significance but is likely to be able to be managed through existing mechanisms. However the effectiveness of these existing response measures needs to be assessed and, where necessary, enhanced. Ongoing monitoring of environmental pressure is usually required and further investigation may be proposed.
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HIGH – the expected change in environmental pressure is significant. New response measures may be required to ameliorate adverse effects or reinforce positive changes or both. Further investigation may be proposed.
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UNCERTAIN – There is insufficient information to assess the significance of the effect. Further investigation will be proposed rather than policy response mechanisms.
It must be stressed that all changes described here are relative to the base case scenario (see Appendix 2). That is, a change is described as a decrease in pressure (and therefore a positive effect) even if the pressure is expected to increase over time, provided the ETS-plus policies are responsible for reducing the pressure relative to what it would have been otherwise.
Table A4.1: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to greenhouse gas emissions
Table A4.2: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to land and soil
Table A4.3: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to biodiversity, landscape and natural character
Table A4.4: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to freshwater flows and water quality
Table A4.5: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to coastal and marine environments
Table A4.6: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to air pollution
Table A4.7: Schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to human health
View schedule of possible environmental effects identified in relation to human health (large table)
