Table 8: Assessment of progress on high priority recommendations from 2005 review

Energy

Use existing bottom-up models of key sectors (e.g. transport and residential) to cross-check the results from SADEM and, in the longer term, consider incorporating more bottom-up detail within SADEM. This will also be useful for modelling policy impacts.

Partially implemented

A bottom-up transport model the (Ministry of Transport’s Vehicle Fleet Emission Model) is now used but there is still no bottom-up modelling of residential sector.

Energy

Revisit usage of the degree-day variables in residential and other industry and commercial sectors.

Not implemented

A report commissioned by the Ministry for Economic Development highlighted the statistical insignificance of this parameter. This will be addressed with the proposed improvements to the residential-energy model.

Energy

Explore disaggregation of sectors in ‘other industry and commercial’, possibly at the one-digit ANZSIC level.

Implemented

‘Other industry and commercial’ now separated; dairy processing now disaggregated from other industry; disaggregation of other sectors not considered possible.

Energy

Liaise with Ministry of Transport to consider roles and responsibilities for transport energy demand modelling going forward.

Implemented

There appears to have been considerable dialogue between the Ministry for Transport and the Ministry for Economic Development on the projection of transport demand.

Energy

Consider the use of a modular demand function for estimating petrol and diesel demand (i.e. fuel demand = vehicle fleet x utilisation x fuel efficiency).

Implemented

The Vehicle Fleet Emission model which uses modular demand function now integrated with SADEM.

LULUCF

Improve knowledge of the reasons and drivers for the downward trend in new forest planting to allow improved forecasting concerning the future possible intentions of forest owners.

Implemented

The net position report uses three afforestation scenarios that, under current market conditions and policy settings, cover expected afforestation levels out to 2012. Information on afforestation drivers has been gathered but this is considered to be more suited for longer term projections and evaluating policy options.

LULUCF

Improve quantification of the areas of planting of post-1990 forest at national scale into existing shrublands that meets Kyoto Protocol definition of forest.

Initiated but not yet completed

Awaiting data from the LUCAS project (due to become operational in 2010).

LULUCF

Improve estimation of areas deforested and drivers for this process.

Implemented

Surveys of forest owners’ intentions undertaken in 2005 and 2006. The LUCAS project will provide additional quantification.

LULUCF

Undertake further research on the time pattern of loss of carbon from soils after afforestation.

Initiated but not yet completed

Awaiting data from the LUCAS project (due to become operational in 2010).

Agriculture

Improve understanding of the drivers for the rapid increase in nitrogenous fertiliser use and judge whether these can be expected to continue and whether other measures to limit fertiliser use (e.g. environmental concerns) may have an impact.

Implemented

Econometric model now used to project nitrogenous fertiliser use

Agriculture

Consider defining optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for livestock numbers by examining the effect of potential changes in the Pastoral Supply Response Model drivers (price data etc) rather than just for a somewhat arbitrary range based on the 2004 livestock numbers.

Implemented

Impact of uncertainty in forecast price on projected livestock numbers now modelled in PRSM.

Process

Establish a steering group to oversee the projection compilation process.

Implemented

Steering Group met regularly during the 2007 compilation period.

Process

Improve project planning and documentation and introduction/ implementation of a formal QA/QC plan for the projection compilation.

Partially implemented

More project planning in place and departments now asked to ‘sign off’ projections provided as best estimate. Recommend that further improvements are made in this area.

Process

Improve written documentation to fully describe methodology and assumptions made across all sectors.

Partially implemented

In general, written documentation has improved. For example, in LULUCF there is now a single document describing methodology and assumptions.

Compilation

Ensure internal consistency both across sectors (e.g. the same rate of deforestation is used in the agriculture sector as in LULUCF sector) and in off-model calculation (e.g. liabilities from Projects to Reduce Emissions).

Partially implemented

Greater awareness of need for internal consistency (e.g. projected dairy herd numbers used in modelling energy consumption of dairy industry). Deforestation and afforestation not explicitly included in the Pastoral Supply Response Model in 2007 – this is acceptable as any error is small. See below for comment on PRE liabilities.

Policies

Further integrate the analysis of policy impacts to ensure that there is no double-counting of savings.

Undetermined in this review

As this review was not as in-depth as the 2005 review, it was not possible to establish conclusively that this has been implemented, but no double counting was apparent. The Ministry for the Environment has confirmed that the policies will be modelled in aggregate in the 2008 review to avoid any double counting.

Policies

Give consideration to how the impacts of non-modelled policies can be incorporated into the SADEM projections. Once some of the impacts of the policy are allowed for in SADEM, it will no longer be appropriate to simply subtract the full saving attributable to the policy (as estimated outside of SADEM) from the SADEM carbon dioxide projections, as this will result in double counting of the savings.

See comment

Four energy policies are currently evaluated. Modelling of the impact of National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy measures and Projects to Reduce Emissions are reported as now being explicitly modelled in GEM and SADEM respectively so problems of double counting should be avoided. The impact of solar water heating is estimated outside of SADEM. It is not clear whether the biofuels sales obligation has been incorporated into the Vehicle Fleet Emission Model or estimated off-line.

Compilation

Perform a consistency check between the results of SADEM in relation to the success rate for projects and the assumptions used to calculate the liabilities from Projects to Reduce Emissions (PREs) in the compilation of the overall net position.

See comment

While the effect of PREs is now modelled in GEM, it is not clear that a cross-check is made on the number of projects going ahead and the estimate of project units made by The Ministry for the Environment to assess liabilities.

Policies

Improve the documentation available concerning the basis of the attributed emission savings anticipated from climate change policies (particularly for the optimistic and pessimistic estimates).

Partially implemented

The basis of estimated savings from PREs, biofuels sales obligations and solar water heating is documented clearly although expected savings are not identified directly. In the waste sector, documentation could be improved, e.g. by including references for reports containing original estimates of savings.

Uncertainties

Improve the transparency of the uncertainty calculations by clearly defining the basis for calculating the uncertainty ranges and using a consistent approach to quantifying uncertainties across sectors in terms of deciding what is trying to be quantified, i.e. the uncertainty caused by future unpredictability (e.g. uncertainty in the forecasts of key drivers) or value uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in data values).

Ongoing

Guidance was given to departments to encourage a uniform approach to treating uncertainty, but this area still requires further work.