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Table 3: Methodology used for projection of agricultural emissions

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Source

Sub-sector

% of 2003 agricultural emissions

Activity data projection

Emissions factor projection

Enteric methane emissions (CH4)

Dairy beef, deer and sheep

63.2%

Livestock numbers from PSRM model

Linear extrapolation of historic per head implied emission factors (as calculated for the inventory using a monthly time step model)

Other species (horses, goats, pigs and poultry)

0.2%

Kept constant at 2003 level

Soils (N2O)

Emissions due to fertiliser application

7%

Average of linear trend and industry estimate

2003 emission factors used

Emissions due to nitrogen excreted by animals

27.6%

Dairy and beef cattle, deer and sheep: livestock numbers from PSRM model

Linear extrapolation of historic nitrogen output per head implied emission factors (as calculated for the inventory using a monthly time step model)

Other species: livestock numbers kept at 2003 levels

2003 emission factors used

Nitrogen fixing crops, crop residues and histosols

0.3%

Kept constant at 2003 level

Manure management (N2O and CH4)

Dairy beef, deer and sheep

1.6%

Livestock numbers from PSRM model

2003 emission factors used

Other species (horses, goats, pigs and poultry)

Kept constant at 2003 level

Stubble and savannah burning (N2O and CH4)

 

0.1%

Kept constant at 2003 level