Appendix B: Priority ranking of SADEM Energy Model improvements
Priority Ranking of Report and Model Improvements
MED have provided a priority listing of their future planned work programme with the SADEM model. Rated as 'A' are things that are either already in progress or that MED are committed to deliver, i.e:
- Energy Outlook (including Assumptions Document, Model Runs, and Write-Up, but not Workshops);
- NIWA Model Runs;
- Fourth National Communication;
- Input to Post-Maui Analysis;
- PRE Analysis;
- Oil Price Paper;
- Heavy Industrial Demand Project;
- Emerging Supply Side Technologies Project;
- Two sections of Model Documentation requiring updating;
- Gas Assumptions Paper;
- Coal Assumptions Paper.
Rated as 'B', are items planned for over the next six months or so and prioritised from highest to lowest:
- Energy Outlook Workshops (Assumptions/Scenarios and Review of Runs);
- Vehicle Fleet Model - Work with MoT;
- Review Representation of Generating Plants vs. Actual Better Representation of Gas/Coal Switching at Huntly;
- Improved Load Duration Curves;
- Improved Representation of Whirinaki (& peaking plant);
- Review Transmission and Distribution Mark-ups for Gas Switch Model to Calendar Years;
- Complete Greenhouse Gas Paper;
- Better Representation of Base-load Generation;
- Emerging Demand Side Technologies Project;
- Integrate Demand Models and Fuel Shares Models (as per Covec) (this includes work planned on demand models, both Residential and Other Industrial and Commercial)
- Improved Handling of Water Contours;
- Improved Algorithm for Adding Generation.
Rated as 'C', are lower priority steps:
- Improved Representation of Dry Years and Demand Response;
- Improved Representation of Cogen and Gas Used in Cogen;
- Improvements to Handle Sequence of Dry Years;
- Standardise Sector Definitions with Stats;
- Allow Addition of More Model Years.
From our review of the SADEM model, we would recommend the following key issues are investigated as a matter of priority. A number of these coincide with MED's own list.
- Dynamic consideration of future prices and technology introduction/retrial in the bottom-up electricity module;
- Dynamic consideration of future prices and technology introduction/retrial in other bottom up sectors:
- Potential use of off-model calculations;
- Priority given to transport as a key demand sector for New Zealand;
- Inclusion of efficiency and consumer preferences in the residential sector is also of interest;
- Econometric re-estimation of structural changes in diesel demand;
- Econometric re-estimation for structural and fuel specific changes in the commercial and residential sectors;
- General econometric re-estimation for insights into longer term drivers in all sectors;
- Explicit representation of energy infrastructures, or at least clear guidance on the breakdown on energy transmission costs for various fuels and to various sectors;
- Explicit representation of process technologies (e.g., refineries, LNG terminals) for potential constraints on fuel use;
- Optimal price path(s) of natural gas in New Zealand;
- Systematic sensitivity analysis, with a ranking of key parameters and a discussion of key interdependencies;
- Clarification of the interaction (additive?) between PREs, carbon permits and other price based mechanisms;
- Inclusion of coal with carbon capture and storage as a key abatement option;
- Relaxing the assumption of inelastic demand from heavy industrial sectors.
In our view, arguably less priority should be given to improving the electricity-renewable sector module as well as inclusion of additional plant-level and other New Zealand-specific detail. The model already tries hard to incorporate these.
Finally general consideration should be made to two overview questions:
- What is the coverage of this model? - as a whole systems energy model, should it accept off calculation inputs and constraints from more detailed sectoral models and industry stakeholders?
- What is the time frame of this model? - is it focused on near-term trends or is it a mid-long term energy model? This has significant implications for consideration of structural economic changes and associated impacts, and new technology penetration and use.
