6 Reconciliation with previous projections
A comparison of the pre-ratification and 2004 projections is provided in table 7. The decrease in the projected balance of units from the 2004 projection is due to:
- 1. An increase in projected energy and industrial processes emissions over the first commitment period. This is caused by changes in the modelled emissions and policy measures and changes in the reductions attributed to non-modelled policy measures. i. Changes in modelled emissions include updated information from the Maui re-evaluation showing an increase in the long-term price of gas and consequently more coal use in electricity generation, the impact of diesel consumption in excess of the previous projection and an increase in fugitive and industrial processes emissions. ii. The new projection also includes changes resulting from modelling reductions from the carbon charge and the Projects to Reduce Emissions policy. iii. There were also changes to reductions from non-modelled policy measures, i.e. the NEECS, local Government initiatives and the Small to medium business opportunities.
- A reduction in the removals via forest sinks due to the quantification of previously unknown risks and updating of previous estimates from improved scientific information.
- Changes to the liabilities for the "Projects to Reduce Emissions" in the projected balance of units. The 2004 projection included 60% of all 3 PRE rounds as a liability whereas this projection only includes liabilities from the PRE projects modelled in the energy sector. This includes the pre-round 1 and a proportion of PRE round 1and 2 projects. PRE 3 is not modelled and consequently liabilities from PRE3 are not included in the projected balance of units.
Table 7. Reconciliation of previous projections of the balance of units.
Mt CO2e |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
|
Projected emissions including policies |
|||
Energy and Industrial Processes |
161.5 |
156.4 |
194.4 |
Agriculture |
189.5 |
201.3 |
202.0 |
Waste |
7.5 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
a. Total emissions over the first commitment period |
358.5 |
360.9 |
401.7 |
Annual emissions projected for 2010 |
71.7 |
72.2 |
80.9 |
Latest actual emissions at date of projection |
70.2 |
74.9 |
75.3 |
b. Assigned amount |
308.3 |
308.3 |
307.6 |
c. Emissions to be covered (b-a) |
-50.2 |
-52.6 |
-94.1 |
Removal units |
|||
Sequestration in forests (including new planting) |
105.0 |
97.8 |
95.3 |
Loss of soil carbon with afforestation |
0 |
-2.2 |
|
Natural scrub meeting Kyoto Forest definition |
3.8 |
0 |
|
Planted forest not meeting Kyoto Forest definition |
-14.7 |
||
Burning of scrub for new planting |
-1.3 |
||
Deforestation emissions |
-6.3 |
-6.3 |
|
d. Total removal units |
105.0 |
95.2 |
70.9 |
e. Balance (c+d) |
54.8 |
42.6 |
-23.2 |
f. Liabilities to the Projects to educe emissions |
0 |
-10.0 |
-7.5 |
Projected balance of units (e +f) |
54.8 |
32.6 |
-36.2* |
* The balance of units shown for 2005 is the mean result of the Monte-Carlo simulation. The balance of units from the most-likely scenario is -30.7 Mt CO2e.
