Executive Summary
This report updates New Zealand's projected emissions and removals of greenhouse gases during the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol. The update is based on the latest national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and removals submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat on 15 April 2005.
As at May 2005, New Zealand is projected to have deficit of units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The balance of units is projected to range between -11.3 Mt CO2e (95% CI) under an optimistic scenario and -62.6 Mt CO2e (95% CI) under a pessimistic scenario. The best estimate of the balance of units is -36.2 Mt CO2e.
There is a range of 51Mt CO2e between the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. This uncertainty reflects the difficulty in modelling the complex interactions of the New Zealand energy sector, projecting agricultural markets and animal productivity, estimating the reductions from the climate change policy package and predicting removals from forest sinks prior to the New Zealand Carbon Accounting System being operational. In addition, a review has highlighted that a number of improvements are required in the model used for CO2 emissions from the energy and industrial processes sector.
The updated projection shows a substantial decrease from the 32.6 Mt CO2e surplus in the previous projection (May 2004) and the 55 Mt CO2e surplus projected prior to ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The decrease from the 2004 projection is due primarily to an increase in projected energy and industrial processes emissions and a decrease in the removals via forest sinks. The decrease in removals is due to the quantification of previously unknown risks and updating of previous estimates with improved scientific information.
