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Figure 1: Distribution of projected balance of units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

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Figure 1 shows the distribution of outcomes following a Monte-Carlo simulation of the projected balance of units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The curve approximates a normal distribution, i.e. a bell curve, with a peak at the mean result of -36.2 Mt. The distribution tails off at the 95 th percentiles of -62.6 Mt and -11.3 Mt.