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2 Introduction

The Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC, 1998) commits Annex I2 Parties that have both signed and ratified the Protocol to limit or to take responsibility for their greenhouse gas emissions. Annex I Parties in Annex B of the Protocol must put in place domestic policies and measures to address emissions or take responsibility for emissions in excess of their commitment. The individual emissions targets of Annex I Parties were intended to equate to a total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least five per cent from 1990 emissions levels in the period from 2008 to 2012 (the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol).3 Emissions may also be offset by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases removed by carbon “sinks,” eg, forests planted since 1990. New Zealand has committed to reducing its average net emissions of greenhouse gases over the first commitment period to 1990 levels or to take responsibility for the difference. New Zealand can meet its commitment through emissions reductions (for example introducing biofuels sales obligations) and use of the Kyoto Protocol flexibility mechanisms such as carbon trading, Joint Implementation, the Clean Development Mechanism, and offsetting increased emissions against carbon dioxide removed by forests.

This report projects New Zealand’s emissions and removals of greenhouse gases during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The projection follows New Zealand’s annual inventory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Convention) and considers emissions and removals of the gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. Global warming potentials are used to convert each of the gases to a carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2-e). The global warming potential values used in this report are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Second Assessment Report (IPCC, 1995) as per the Convention reporting guidelines.

This report is a compilation of sectoral projections from across government. Agricultural and forest sink projections are provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, energy (including transport) and industrial processes projections are from the Ministry of Economic Development, and solvents and waste projections are from the Ministry for the Environment. The Ministry for the Environment combines the sectoral projections to create the projected balance of units over the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

2.1 National trends in New Zealand’s emissions

The net position uses the information from the latest national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and removals submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat on 4 May 2007 (MfE 2007a).

In 1990, New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding the land use, land-use change and forestry sector) were equivalent to 61.9 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. In 2005, total greenhouse gas emissions were equivalent to 77.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide. This equates to a 15.3 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (24.7 per cent) rise in greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 from the five sectors listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol (see Box 1, Section 3). Table 1 presents details of emissions by sector for 1990 and 2005.

Table 1: Annual sectoral emissions of greenhouse gases in 1990 and 2005

View annual sectoral emissions of greenhouse gases in 1990 and 2005 (large table)

Box 1: Kyoto Protocol Article 3.1

“The Parties included in Annex I shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A [to the Kyoto Protocol, refer below] do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B [to the Kyoto Protocol, refer below] and in accordance with the provisions of this Article, with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.” (Kyoto Protocol, 1997)

View Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol (large table)

2 Annex I Parties are industrialised countries that have signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and are listed in Annex I of that document.

3 Note that the calculation of five per cent includes the USA and Australia, which have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

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