Table 6: Values or sources of climate parameters suggested for use in scenario analysis
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| Climate factor | For screening assessment scenarios | For detailed study scenarios |
|---|---|---|
| Mean temperature | Mid-range 2030s & 2080s projections (central panel Figure 2.2; Figure 2.3 in the source report. Central values from Table 2.2 and 2.3 of the source report | Low, mid and high scenarios from ranges given in Tables 2.2 and 2.3 in the source report, or approach a science provider for regional numbers |
| Frost occurrence | For 2100, see two top panels of Figure 2.8 in the source report. For 2030s & 2080s use mid-range CLIMPACTS [CLIMPACTS is an integrated assessment model for conducting analyses of the sensitivity of New Zealand's managed environments to climate variability and change. Further information is at http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/climpacts_webpage/] (or move current seasonal frequency distribution of daily minimum temperature right by seasonal mean change) | Use CLIMPACTS to develop low/medium/high scenario frost changes, and/or approach a science provider for regional numbers |
| Extreme high temperatures | For 2100 use lower two panels of Figure 2.8 in the source report | Use CLIMPACTS to develop low/medium/high scenario maximum temperatures and/or approach a science provider for location-specific weather generator results |
| Growing degree days (GDDs) | Use CLIMPACTS for a mid-range scenario | Use CLIMPACTS to develop low/medium/high scenario changes and/or approach a science provider for location-specific projections |
| Winter chilling | Approach a science provider for weather generator-based location-specific projections | |
| Mean rainfall (annual, seasonal) | Use low, middle, high scenarios from Figures 2.5, A10, A11 for 2030s and 2080s in source report | Use low, middle, high scenarios from Figures 2.5, A10, A11 for 2030s and 2080s in source report |
| Heavy rainfall | Use factors from Table 5.2 with 5, 10, 50, 100 year ARI values from HIRDS or from local data analyses | Obtain assistance from a science provider with site-specific applications of the gamma function analysis outlined in Appendix 3 of the source report |
| Flood | Use factors from Table 5.2 in the source report with the rainfalls used to drive the design floods | Approach specialist hydrologists for targeted advice |
| Water deficit (for irrigation) | Use weather generator in CLIMPACTS for locations of interest for low/middle/high greenhouse gas scenarios | |
| Snow | Assume snowline rises by 140 m for each 1°C increase in annual average temperature | Requires research and development of linked spatial weather generator/snow budget modelling software for future projections |
| Strong winds | Increase of 40% by 2030s and 100% by 2080s in annual frequency of winds above 30 m/s (but see next column). Increase of 3% in annual maximum wind speed | Changes in the frequency of strong winds and ARI of damaging winds are still very uncertain. Consult with a science provider if screening indicates possible problems |
| Sea level, coastal hazard | See accompanying Coastal Hazards and Climate Change publication: http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/publications/climate/coastal-hazards-may04/index.html | See accompanying Coastal Hazards and Climate Change publication: http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/publications/climate/coastal-hazards-may04/index.html |
