Table 1: Main features of New Zealand climate change projections for 2030s and 2080s

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Climate variable	Direction of change	Magnitude of change	Spatial and seasonal variation
Mean temperature	Increase (VH)	0.5-0.7°C by 2030s, 1.5-2.0°C by 2080s (M) (Mid-range projections).	Strongest warming in winter, tendency for slightly more warming in E and N
Daily temperature extremes (frosts, hot days)	Fewer cold temperatures and frosts (VH), more high temperature episodes (VH)	Whole frequency distribution moves right	See source report page 27
Mean rainfall	Varies around country. By 2080s Taranaki, Manawatu-Wanganui, West Coast, Otago and Southland show increases; Hawke's Bay Gisborne, eastern Canterbury, eastern Marlborough show decreases (M)	Substantial variation around the country	Tendency to increase in S and W, decrease in N and E. Largest projected seasonal decreases in spring in N and E of North Island
Extreme rainfall	Heavier and/or more frequent extreme rainfalls, especially where mean rainfall increase predicted (M)	No change through to halving of heavy rainfall return period by 2030s; no change through to fourfold reduction in return period by 2080s (L)	Increases in heavy rainfall most likely in areas where mean rainfall is projected to increase
Snow	Snow cover decrease, snowline rise, shortened duration of seasonal snow lying (all M)
Wind (average)	Increase in the mean westerly windflow across New Zealand (M)	By 2080s, could be from slight increase up to doubling of mean annual westerly flow (L)
Strong winds	Increase in severe wind risk possible (L)	Little change up to double the frequency of winds above 30m/s by 2080s (L)
Storms	More storminess possible, but little information available for New Zealand (L)
Sea level	Increase (VH)	30-50 cm rise (New Zealand average) between 1990 and 2100 (H), accelerating the historical trend (Mid-range projection).	See accompanying Coastal Hazards and Climate Change publication (http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/publications/climate/coastal-hazards-may04/index.html)
Waves	Increased frequency of heavy swells in regions exposed to prevailing westerlies (M)	See accompanying Coastal Hazards and Climate Change publication

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