Figure 3: Projected changes in average precipitation (in %) and temperature (in °C) for the 2080s by season

Text description of figure

This figure is made up of four separate figures. The first pair of figures illustrate expected average precipitation in New Zealand in 2080 for summer and winter, respectively, as a comparison with today's average precipitation. The second pair illustrate expected average temperature in New Zealand in 2080 for summer and winter, respectively, as a comparison with today's temperature. Each of the four figures have been developed using mid-range scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In very general terms, the first pair of figures illustrates that by 2080, precipitation in some parts of the West Coast of the South Island could be expected to experience over 20% more winter rainfall than today, and between 10-20% more summer rainfall. Parts of the West Coast of the lower North Island could be expected to experience between 10-20% more winter rainfall than today, and between 5 -10% more summer rainfall. In very general terms, parts of the East Coast of the North Island and Northern East Coast of the South Island are expected to experience less rainfall than today, both in summer and winter, although the effects are expected to be localised. Some parts of Canterbury, for example, are expected to experience 10-20% less rainfall in winter in 2080 than is presently the case, while the Hawkes Bay could be expected to experience up to 10% less rainfall than at present. The pair of temperature maps illustrate that the top part of the North Island is expected to experience average temperatures in the 2080s which are between 2-3°C hotter than at present in both summer and winter. The rest of the North Island and some parts of the top of the South Island are expected to experience average temperatures in the 2080s which are between 1.5 - 2°C hotter than at present in summer, and 2-3°C hotter in winter. The remaining parts of the South Island are expected to experience temperature increases of 1-1.5°C in summer. In winter, the northern and central parts of the South Island are expected to experience temperature increases of 2-3°C, with most southern parts of the South Island are expected to experience temperature increases of 1.5-2°C.

Note: These maps are intended to illustrate board geographical patterns of climate change within New Zealand. They should not be used as definitive predictions of climate change for specific geographical locations. Projections for specific regions are provided in Tables 2 and 3.