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2.2.4 Non-Annex I countries

RELEASED UNDER THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ACT

Emissions information collection and reporting present very significant challenges for Non-Annex I countries. Many Non-Annex I countries have only recently submitted their first national communication to the UNFCCC, and some of these communications report only on 1994 data. Authorities have noted particular difficulties in collecting reliable estimates of agricultural and land-use change emissions. This issue affects the feasibility of applying any kind of quantitative target and reporting requirement on developing countries. Establishing the domestic knowledge and reporting systems that would allow this would be a significant undertaking.

To date, the focus of developing countries’ mitigation measures has been on non-price measures, including:

  • education and awareness raising, sometimes through the formal education system
  • the creation of standards, including vehicle emissions performance standards and building-efficiency standards
  • the use of energy-efficiency labelling, such as of appliances.

Some developing countries have emphasised the importance of technology development in achieving future emissions mitigation. China and India are forecast to continue to rely on coal for energy generation, while the contribution of renewable energy to their total energy supplies is expected to decline through to 2030. Although overall energy intensity in both countries is also forecast to decline by around 2.3% a year, this will not be sufficient to significantly curb emissions growth. Developing and transferring technologies that allow more efficient use of fossil fuels, or the offsetting of emissions through the sequestering of carbon, are therefore likely to be critical factors in curbing emissions growth.

This section presents information on emissions and climate change responses in selected Non-Annex I countries.

Argentina

Emissions profile and trends

Argentina has a similar sectoral emissions profile to New Zealand, as shown in the graph below. Total energy emissions (comprising electricity and heat, manufacturing and construction, transportation, other fuel combustion and fugitive emissions [Fugitive emissions are unintended leakages of greenhouse gases during their processing, transmission and/or transportation, or during their use; eg, CFCs from refrigeration leaks. ]) add up to 50% of overall emissions.

Figure 9 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in Argentina 1997

Electricity and Heat: 13%. Manufacturing and Construction: 6%. Transportation: 15%. Other Fuel Combustion: 10%. Fugitive Emissions: 7%. Industrial Processes: 3%. Agriculture: 40%. Waste: 6%.

Source: World Resources Institute (http://cait2.wri.org/wri)

In comparison, New Zealand’s emissions in 2003 comprised 43% from energy, 49% from agriculture, 5% from industrial processes and 2% from waste. Argentina’s total emissions in 1997 were around four times greater than New Zealand’s 2003 emissions, although Argentina’s emissions per capita and emissions intensity still remain well below the OECD average.

Natural gas is the primary means of electricity generation in Argentina. As in New Zealand, bovine cattle are the principal source of emissions from the agricultural sector.

Between 1990 and 1997, Argentina’s gross emissions increased by 21%, although the growth rate eased towards the end of this period. This easing resulted from a move to more efficient electricity generation derived from more environmentally sound technologies (eg, a move to combined-cycle plants), the replacement of road vehicles with more efficient ones, and a reduction of the cattle population.

A 1999 study published by the UNEP projected that Argentina’s energy greenhouse gas emissions would grow by an average of 3.5% per year between 1994 and 2020 under a business-as-usual scenario. It is estimated that this average growth rate can be reduced to 2.6% if a variety of mitigation measures are employed.

Mitigation responses

Existing and contemplated policies that will contribute to emissions abatement include:

  • improving energy efficiency by facilitating the adoption of efficient technologies
  • replacing the use of fuel oil with natural gas in combined-cycle power stations
  • encouraging the development of forest plantations to provide carbon sinks
  • adopting financial support measures to promote the development of wind energy
  • resolving to progressively reduce natural gas emissions from oil wells
  • encouraging flaring of methane emissions from sanitary landfills, rather than combustion
  • reducing emissions from the agricultural sector by improving the production system with better diets and managing an increased proportion of animals in confined conditions
  • promoting “no till” and “low till” land-use practices to reduce fuel consumption for agricultural purposes
  • examining potential hydroelectric power opportunities to offset or replace thermal generation
  • contemplating the use of co-generation plants as a mitigation option for industrial activities
  • promoting the use of compressed natural gas in the transport sector.

Argentina sees the CDM* as a significant opportunity for emissions mitigation and currently has around 75 projects in the pipeline.

Argentina has established a dynamic greenhouse gas emissions target based on its GDP. The aim of such a target is to allow Argentina to continue its socio-economic progress while still providing a goal for emissions reductions.

[* The Clean Development Mechanism is one of three Kyoto flexible mechanisms.

Joint Implementation (JI) is a project-based mechanism designed to assist Annex I countries in meeting their emission reduction targets through joint projects with other Annex I countries, meaning that JI projects can only be implemented between capped industrialised countries. One or more investors (governments, companies, funds etc) will agree with partners in a host country to participate in project activities which generate Emission Reduction Units (ERUs), in order to use them for compliance with targets under the Kyoto Protocol.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a similar instrument, but based on agreements between Annex I and Non-Annex I (or developing) countries. Both JI and CDM offer possibilities for project-based emission reduction “credits”, referred to as “emission reduction units” for JI and “certified emissions reductions” for transfer of credits from Non-Annex I countries envisioned in CDM.

International Emissions Trading (IET) is a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol which allows the trade of Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) among Annex B countries. This activity may be delegated by national governments to entities within their jurisdictions so that international trading between entities will occur. This will adjust each nation’s “pool” of AAUs.]

Brazil

Emissions profile and trends

The majority of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions are carbon dioxide. Brazil’s carbon dioxide emissions profile is shown in the graph below.

Figure 10 - Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector in Brazil 1994

Energy: 23%. Industrial Processes: 2%. Land Use Change and Forestry: 75%.

Source: Brazil’s national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2004)

Of the land-use change and forestry emissions, 96% were from forest conversion to agricultural activities. Low-energy emissions arise from Brazil’s low overall energy intensity and high proportion of renewable energy. In 2000, around 94% of electricity delivered to the national grid was from hydroelectric sources. Of the remainder, a significant amount was produced with nuclear energy (around 1.5%) and biomass (around 3%). Generation of electricity in the country emits almost no greenhouse gases.

Since the oil shocks of the 1970s, ethanol (manufactured from sugarcane) has been used in Brazil as a transport fuel, both blended with petrol and as a pure alcohol in specially designed vehicles. In 2002, biofuels provided 13% of road transport fuel. Sugar-cane bagasse and charcoal are used in industry in place of coal, which results in significant emissions savings. Overall, Brazil’s energy system is one of the least carbon intensive in the world.

Between 1990 and 1994, overall emissions in Brazil grew by 5%, largely based on a 16% growth in emissions in the energy sector. The World Energy Outlook projects that Brazil’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will double by 2030, albeit from a low base.

Mitigation responses

Brazil’s government runs a number of programmes to improve energy efficiency and conservation. Programmes include PROCEL, which aims to reduce electricity waste and promote the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies; CONPET, which aims to rationalise the use of oil and gas products without affecting levels of activities in economic sectors; and PRODEEM, which aims to supply electricity to isolated communities from local renewable sources.

Natural gas is a growing energy source in Brazil and incentive policies have been developed to encourage its use where this will avoid the use of other emissions-intensive sources (such as fuel oil), including in thermal electricity generation. In the domestic production of natural gas, a programme has been initiated to reduce the degree of gas flaring, which will also reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Attempts have been made to expand education, public awareness and training on climate change issues. The National Environmental Education Programme aims to promote broad education of environmental issues in Brazil, and the “PROCEL in schools” and “CONPET in schools” programmes aim to expand the awareness of teachers and students on the importance of using electricity, oil products and natural gas efficiently. Government-operated websites on climate change also contribute to increasing public awareness.

China

Emissions profile and trends

China is the second-largest economy and the second-largest consumer of primary energy in the world (after the United States ). It currently accounts for 12% of global GDP and primary energy demand. In 1994, China’s total greenhouse gas emissions equated to 3,650 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, also making China the second-highest greenhouse gas emitter. Carbon sinks and land-use change offset around 400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Around 73% of total emissions were carbon dioxide. China’s carbon dioxide emissions profile is shown in the graph below.

Figure 11 - Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector in China 1994

Energy: 91%. Industrial Processes: 9%.

Source: The People’s Republic of China Initial national communication on Climate Change (2004)

About 80% of China’s electricity production is derived from fossil fuels, predominantly coal. China is the highest consumer of coal in the world. Most of the remaining generation comes from hydro. Poverty and lack of access to modern energy are still widespread in China. In recent times, acute power shortages have hampered economic development. Demand for energy is projected to continue to grow strongly. Significant new electricity plant development (primarily powered by coal) is being progressed and is expected to continue.

The World Energy Outlook 2004 forecasts that China’s demand for coal will continue to expand, accounting for 53% of the worldwide increase in coal demand through to 2030. Use of nuclear generation in China is also predicted to grow strongly. Overall, China’s dependence on energy imports is projected to increase.

Continuing population growth and increased urbanisation, economic development and consumption, and a continued reliance on coal, mean that greenhouse gas emissions in China are likely to grow significantly in the future. The World Energy Outlook projects emissions growth of 2.8% per year through to 2030. China is predicted to overtake the United States as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases by around 2025.

Mitigation responses

Since the 1980s, the Chinese Government has carried out wide-ranging reforms in the energy sector to promote technical progress and increase the sector’s efficiency. Other policies that will contribute to emissions abatement include:

  • introducing finance, credit and taxation incentives to reduce consumption of energy and other resources by the industrial sector
  • setting development goals and policies for energy development and conservation
  • introducing policies and measures to foster the development of new, renewable energy, including wind, small-scale hydro, biogas, solar and geothermal technologies in rural areas
  • establishing energy-efficiency standards, labelling and certification processes and launching a national energy conservation publicity week
  • establishing standards for energy conservation in the building and construction sector
  • developing and applying substitute fuels for motor vehicles, including gas-powered vehicles
  • conserving and improving pastures and forest lands, including establishing loans for afforestation
  • introducing administrative regulations, policies and criteria for waste management to help prevent pollution from waste treatment
  • implementing programmes to improve education, training and public awareness on climate change, predominantly through the education system.

China is a founding member of the recently formed Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, which aims to develop and share climate change mitigating technologies.

India

Emissions profile and trends

India has the world’s second-largest population and fourth-largest economy. Its economy grew at a rate of almost 6.6% per year during the 1990s, nearly doubling in size over that time. Energy use grew even faster, at a rate close to 7%, while the demand for electricity grew at 8% per year. Despite this growth, India’s per capita electricity use averaged only one-sixth of the world average in 1994. Its per capita carbon dioxide emissions also rank among the lowest in the world, averaging 4% of the United States per capita carbon dioxide emissions in 1994 and 23% of the global average.

India’s greenhouse gas emissions profile is shown in the graph below. Total energy emissions (comprising electricity and heat, manufacturing and construction, transportation, other fuel combustion and fugitive emissions) add up to 61% of overall emissions. A total of 70% of India’s energy is derived from fossil fuels, with coal making up 47% of commercial energy use.

Figure 12 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in India 1994

Electricity and Heat: 30%. Manfacturing and Construction: 12%. Transportation: 7%. Other Fuel Combustion: 11%. Fugitive Emissions: 2%. Industrial Processes: 8%. Agriculture: 28%. Waste: 2%.

Source: World Resources Institute <http://cait2.wri.org/wri>

The World Energy Outlook projects that India’s use of coal and nuclear energy will grow significantly, as will its dependence on energy imports. Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at 2.9% per year to 2030, more than doubling over this period.

Mitigation responses

Education and public awareness on the efficient use and conservation of energy has been a key focus for India, with a number of government ministries undertaking publicity campaigns, establishing best-practice resource centres and running training programmes. Other policies that will contribute to emissions abatement include:

  • establishing a Bureau of Energy Efficiency to promote energy efficiency and conservation, and setting energy-efficiency targets for motors, lighting and energy-intensive industries
  • undertaking regulatory reforms to promote competition in the electricity, petroleum and coal markets, to help enhance the technical and economic efficiency of energy use, and to encourage investment in the development of natural gas infrastructure to replace more carbon-intensive forms of energy
  • promoting the use of renewable energy through financial support to hydroelectric developments and upgrading existing hydro stations, using solar photovoltaic power systems for a variety of decentralised applications and extending distributed solar, hydro and biomass generation to rural and remote areas
  • improving transport fuels, including unleaded petrol and low-sulphur petrol and diesel, introducing a programme to blend 5% ethanol in petrol, and making CNG and LPG available in some cities
  • introducing vehicle emissions performance standards (in 2000) and increasing these to European-level norms for new cars and passenger vehicles in major cities (in 2002)
  • introducing agricultural initiatives focused on improving the energy efficiency of irrigation, improved animal feeds and digesters, and rationalisation of power tariffs and
  • introducing initiatives to maintain or enhance existing forest land for ecological reasons, including afforestation programmes by government power organisations..

India is a founding member of the recently formed Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, which aims to develop and share climate change mitigating technologies.

South Africa

Emissions profile and trends

South Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions profile is shown in the graph below. Total energy emissions (comprising electricity and heat, manufacturing and construction, transportation, other fuel combustion and fugitive emissions) add up to 78% of overall emissions.

Figure 13 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in South Africa 1994

Electricity and Heat: 45%. Manufacturing and Construction: 14%. Transportation: 11%. Other Fuel Combustion: 7%. Fugitive Emissions: 2%. Industrial Processes: 8%. Agriculture: 9%. Waste: 4%.

Source: World Resources Institute <http://cait2.wri.org/wri>

The high level of emissions from energy relates to the high energy intensity of the South African economy, which is dependent on large-scale primary extraction and processing, particularly in the mining and minerals industries. Coal currently provides 90% of the energy for electricity generation and is expected to continue to be the dominant source of electricity until 2040, given South Africa’s abundant reserves. Total emissions increased by 9% between 1990 and 1994.

Mitigation responses

South Africa has stated that its approach to specific greenhouse gas mitigation measures is currently (in 2000) at only an exploratory phase. It has identified that the major potential for domestic mitigation is in the energy sector and has identified a national target for energy-efficiency improvements of 12% by 2015. The intention is to meet this target through a mix of economic instruments and regulatory tools, as well as energy-management programmes. A voluntary target of a 10,000 GWh contribution of renewable energy by 2013 has also been set, to be produced mainly from biomass, wind, solar, small-scale hydro and bio-fuels.

Existing programmes aim to foster the development of off-grid energy sources, including solar, wind and solar water heating. For existing fossil-fuel generation, technologies are being investigated and developed to make coal-fired power stations less polluting and more efficient.

The South African Government has acknowledged the need to increase general awareness of climate change and build the government sector’s capacity to consider this issue. The formal education system has been identified as a potential means for creating awareness of climate change and creating a future shift in attitudes.

An Air Quality Act was passed in 2004, which provides a regulatory framework to set emission standards for priority pollutants including greenhouse gases. Public transport measures are being investigated, including introducing incentives to use bio-fuels. The use of building-standard regulations to improve energy efficiency is being examined.

Assessment

In reviewing the emissions of Non-Annex I countries, it is clear that emissions profiles vary considerably across countries. Agriculture and land-use change often play a more critical role for developing countries than for developed (which tend to generate most emissions from energy). These emissions profiles are fundamentally tied to the economic structure, comparative advantage, energy resources and level of development of these countries (such as the mining industry in South Africa, the use of bio-fuels in Brazil, agricultural emissions in Argentina).

Emission intensities in developing countries tend to be well below those in developed nations, as illustrated below.

Figure 14 – CO2 Emissions in 2000, per Capita and Population

This graph is summarised in the text above.

Source: Grubb, M (2003) “The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol”. World Economics 4(3), July to September 2003

This figure also illustrates the significant potential for global emissions growth if developing-country emissions intensities climb towards industrialised world levels. For most countries reviewed, projections indicate that continued growth in total emissions can be expected for the next 25 years. The significant and increasing contribution of China and India, in particular, to total global emissions has considerable implications. These two countries currently contribute approximately 15% and 5% of global emissions respectively, and their total emissions are projected to double between 2002 and 2030. Engaging developing countries, including China and India, in slowing the growth of their emissions in the future will therefore be critical to achieving the UNFCCC’s ultimate goal of stabilising the climate.

In general, New Zealand as an Annex I member is faced with greater pressures to take actions to address the issue of climate change. However, New Zealand also competes with developing countries in some international markets. This creates a risk that some New Zealand firms may experience relative losses of competitiveness as a result of being subject to more stringent climate change measures than firms in other countries. However, other factors such as labour or raw-material costs will typically be stronger determinants of competitiveness. This issue may arise most often in relation to price-based measures, which can directly increase firms’ costs.

Development needs of Non-Annex I countries may create a tension with emissions reductions. India and South Africa in particular have highlighted that climate change is just one of a number of pressing issues they are trying to address, including poverty eradication, providing basic services (including energy, water, education and health services) and moving to a market-based economy. [withheld under OIA s6(a)] These characteristics need to be taken into account in any future consideration of climate change responsibilities.

In the absence of specific emissions targets, Non-Annex 1 countries have continued to seek viable emissions-reduction opportunities. Countries reviewed have all acknowledged the considerable threat posed by climate change and their desire for a solution through international actions. However, an overriding view remains that constraining developing-country emissions should not be at the expense of economic growth and that developed countries need to take the lead in actions to address climate change.