Table: Uncertainty analysis (Table 6.1 of the IPCC good practice guidance)

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Uncertainty calculation for the New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990 - 2002 (following IPCC Tier 1)

IPCC Source category	Gas	Base year	Year t emissions	activity data uncer-tainty	emission factor uncer-tainty	combined uncer-tainty	combined uncertainty as a % of total national emissions in year t	type A sensitiv-ity	type B sensitv-ity	uncertainty in trend in national emissions introduced by emission factor uncertainty	Uncertainty in trend in national emissions introduced by activity data	Uncertainty introduced into the trend in total national emissions
Energy sector	CO₂	22850.60	30815.77	5	0	5	2.06	0.0489	0.5003	0.0000	3.5374	3.54
Industrial processes sector	CO₂	2403.65	2954.03	5	0	5	0.20	0.0005	0.0480	0.0000	0.3391	0.34
Energy sector	CH₄	749.78	987.54	5	50	50	0.66	0.0012	0.0160	0.0613	0.1134	0.13
CRF2A - mineral products	CH₄	0.00	0.00	25	75	79	0.00	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.00
CRF2B - chemical industry	CH₄	2.52	97.09	45	120	128	0.17	0.0015	0.0016	0.1832	0.1003	0.21
CRF4A - enteric fermentation	CH₄	21371.91	23584.68	1	46	46	14.48	-0.0390	0.3829	-1.7950	0.5415	1.87
CRF4B - manure management	CH₄	573.09	548.00	1	90	90	0.66	-0.0024	0.0089	-0.2178	0.0126	0.22
CRF4E- prescribed burning	CH₄	2.81	0.84	20	50	54	0.00	0.0000	0.0000	-0.0021	0.0004	0.00
CRF4F - burning of residues	CH₄	18.77	22.49	50	40	64	0.02	0.0000	0.0004	-0.0002	0.0258	0.03
CRF5B - forest and grassland conversion	CH₄	88.89	86.14	100	100	141	0.16	-0.0004	0.0014	-0.0357	0.1978	0.20
CRF 6A - Solid waste disposal	CH₄	2606.10	2066.40	35	10	35	0.97	-0.0179	0.0335	-0.1791	1.6605	1.67
CRF 6B - wastewater handling	CH₄	156.66	169.68	60	10	60	0.14	-0.0003	0.0028	-0.0034	0.2337	0.23
Energy sector	N₂O	146.47	243.91	5	50	50	0.16	0.0011	0.0040	0.0534	0.0280	0.06
CRF4D -Agricultural soils	N₂O	9889.17	12617.71	1	80	80	13.47	0.0095	0.2048	0.7632	0.2897	0.82
CRF4B - manure management	N₂O	48.36	75.33	1	90	90	0.09	0.0003	0.0012	0.0241	0.0017	0.02
CRF4E- prescribed burning	N₂O	0.53	0.16	20	50	54	0.00	0.0000	0.0000	-0.0004	0.0001	0.00
CRF4F - burning of residues	N₂O	6.51	7.44	50	30	58	0.01	0.0000	0.0001	-0.0002	0.0085	0.01
CRF5B - forest and grassland conversion	N₂O	8.99	8.68	100	100	141	0.02	0.0000	0.0001	-0.0037	0.0199	0.02
CRF6B - wastewater handling	N₂O	145.70	158.10	10	1100	1100	2.32	-0.0003	0.0026	-0.3416	0.0363	0.34
CRF2F	HFCs	0.00	387.59	120	0	120	0.62	0.0063	0.0063	0.0000	1.0678	1.07
CRF2C	PFCs	515.60	83.50	30	0	30	0.03	-0.0088	0.0014	0.0000	0.0575	0.06
CRF2F	SF₆	12.33	12.91	10	0	10	0.00	0.0000	0.0002	0.0000	0.0030	0.00
Total		61598.43	74927.98		Uncertainty in the year		20.1%		Uncertainty in the trend			4.6%

assumptions as per IPCC GPG

1. where only total uncertainty is known for a source category then the following rules have been used.

a) if uncertainity is assumed to be correlated across years, then total uncertainty is entered as emission factor uncertainty

b) if uncertainty is assumed not to be correlated across years, then the total uncertainty is entered as activity data uncertainty

2. Column K: The same emission factor is used in both years and the emission factors are fully correlated.

3. Column L: The activity data in both years is assumed independent (not correlated).

4. Agricultural soils uncertainty data calculated from normal distribution used in Monte Carlo Simulation (97.5 percentile - mean )/ mean *100

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