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5 Reconciliation Against Previous Projections

The detailed changes in all the components of the Kyoto Protocol compliance equation since the 2005 net position report are shown in Table 3. Full explanations of the changes in the methodology, assumptions and results for each sector may be found in the sectoral projection appendices in this, and previous, net position reports. A summary of the changes since the 2008 net position may be found in the executive summary and Section 4 of this report.

Table 3: Reconciliation with historic net positions
(million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent)

May 2009

Change 09–08

May 2008

Change 08–07

May 2007

Change 07–06

May 2006

Change 06–05

December 2005

Change December–May

May 2005

Projected emissions
Gross emissions 378.2 –13.3 391.5 –14.0 405.4 6.3 398.5 –16.3 414.8 13.1 401.7
Stationary energy 93.0 0.6 92.4 –0.4 92.8 0.3 91.3
Transport 71.9 0.7 71.3 –8.8 80.1 1.3 78.8
Industrial processes 20.7 –1.3 22.0 –0.2 22.2 –0.6 22.9
Total energy and industrial processes 185.6 0.0 185.6 –9.5 195.1 0.9 193.0 –14.5 207.5 13.1 194.4
Solvent and other product use 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Agriculture 184.0 –14.4 198.5 –4.7 203.1 4.8 198.8 –3.2 202.0 202.0
Waste 8.3 1.1 7.2 0.2 7.0 0.5 6.5 1.2 5.3 5.3
Assigned amount units 309.6 0.0 309.6 0.1 309.5 1.9 307.6 0.0 307.6 307.6
Projected removals
Removals by forests (article 3.3) 92.3 8.2 84.1 5.1 79.0 0.8 78.2 1.0 77.2 77.2
Deforestation emissions 7.3 –9.6 16.9 –24.1 41.0 0.0 38.5 0.0 21.0 14.7 6.3
Net removals via forests 85.0 17.8 67.2 29.2 38.0 0.8 39.7 1.0 56.2 –14.7 70.9
New Zealand’s net emissions 16.4 31.1 –14.7 43.3 –58.0 –3.6 –51.2 17.3 –51.0 –23.2
Additional policy and unit transfer adjustments
Kyoto Protocol Units committed to projects 6.8 –0.2 7.0 –0.5 7.5 0.0 7.5 7.5 7.5
Effect of deforestation emissions cap 0.0 0.0 0.0 –20.0 20.0 2.5 17.5 17.5 0.0
Monte Carlo modelling difference 5.5 –5.5 –5.5
New Zealand’s net position 9.6 31.3 –21.7 23.8 –45.5 –3.6 –41.2 22.8 –64.0 27.8 –36.2

Note: One emissions unit is equivalent to one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions converted to carbon dioxide equivalents by its global warming potential.

Net removals by forests offset emissions and reduce net emissions in the net position calculation.

This table shows the impact of the deforestation cap separately under policy and unit transfers, rather than being included with deforestation emissions as in previous reports.

Figure 12 picked the highest and lowest projection reported for each sector between 2006 and 2009 net position reports (from the most likely scenarios). It shows that the uncertainty ranges have remained small for most of the various greenhouse gas sectors over the last several years. Only projections of emissions and removals from forestry have a significant uncertainty component. The Land Use and Carbon Analysis System will reduce this uncertainty when its satellite data replaces the current data from postal surveys. Note that only projections since 2006 have been used because sub-sector detail was not provided for energy before 2006.

Figure 12: Highest and lowest projection by sector from net position reports between 2006 and 2009

Figure 12: Highest and lowest projection by sector from net position reports between 2006 and 2009

Text description for figure 12