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Climate change Net Position Report 2009 Online version
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3 Projections of Emissions and Removals
The Ministry for the Environment leads the net position update across government. This is to ensure the projections are consistent and to compile the Kyoto Protocol compliance equation. For the 2009 net position report, each department has produced a full, independent report of projected emissions and removals for their sector. Each report explains the modelling approaches used by the department, changes in projections since 2008 and how uncertainty was treated in each sector.
Gross emissions
Gross emissions over the first commitment period are a combination of emissions from the energy (including transport), industrial processes, solvents, agriculture and the waste sectors as specified in Annex A and Article 3.1 of the Kyoto Protocol (Box 1). Gross emissions exclude emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (such as deforestation emissions).
Emissions projections for each sector are based on detailed sectoral modelling. Gross emissions of greenhouse gases over the first commitment period are projected to be 378.2 million tonnes. This equates to average gross emissions of 75.7 million tonnes during the five years of the first commitment period (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Historical emissions data and projected emissions 1990–2012
Note: Gross emissions include emissions from energy, agriculture, waste, industrial processes and solvents.
Inclusion of policy
The net position does not evaluate or report the effects of individual policies. All policies are aggregated together to get the best estimate of New Zealand’s emissions and removals over the first commitment period. The net position is calculated to be consistent with the Public Finance Act 1989. This requires the net position to incorporate, to the fullest extent possible, all government decisions and all other circumstances that may have a material effect on the projection, and that can be quantified with reasonable certainty (section 26U).
This report takes account of confirmed polices, assumptions (including expected economic growth) and transfers of Kyoto Protocol units in and out of the Crown account in effect as at 28 February 2009. The modelled effects of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme were included in the 2008 projection and remain in the 2009 projection. The modelled effects of the biofuels sales obligation and the renewable electricity preference are no longer included in the net position estimate.
Energy and industrial processes emissions
The projections of energy, transport and industrial process emissions are provided by the Ministry of Economic Development (Appendix B, MED (2009)). Historical data on emissions for the period 1990–2007 and projected emissions for energy, transport, stationary energy and industrial processes are shown in Charts 4, 5, 6 and 7 below. Stationary energy refers to emissions from energy sources excluding transport.
Total emissions from stationary energy, transport and industrial processes are projected to be 185.6 million tonnes and have not changed from the 2008 projection. There have been reductions in the projected emissions from energy due to a lower than projected energy demand during 2008 and the expected effects of a continued economic recession. However, these have been offset by the effects of removing the biofuels sales obligation, the renewables electricity preference, and a small increase in fugitive emissions from greater geothermal electricity generation. There has also been a small reallocation of emissions from the energy sector to the industrial processes sector, but this does not increase overall emissions.
Total energy and transport sectors account for 164.9 million tonnes over the first commitment period. This compares to a 2008 projection of 163.7 million tonnes – an increase of 1.3 million tonnes. Industrial process emissions are projected to be 20.7 million tonnes over the first commitment period. This compares with a 2008 projection of 22.0 million tonnes – a decrease of 1.3 million tonnes.
Table 1 explains some of the substantive changes to subsectors of the energy sector projection.
Table 1: Change in projected energy and industrial process emissions over the first commitment period
| Sector | Explanation |
Change (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| Stationary energy | +0.4 | |
| Increased electricity demand is projected to increase stationary energy emissions. The increase in electricity demand is due to modelling changes for future energy efficiency improvements. | +0.2 | |
| Emissions from urea production are reallocated from industrial processes to stationary energy. | +0.7 | |
| Lower demand for other energy uses are projected to reduce stationary energy emissions. | +0.5 | |
| Fugitive emissions | |
+0.2 |
| Fugitive emissions of gas from the Kapuni treatment plant and from higher geothermal electricity production have increased. | +0.2 | |
| Transport | +0.7 | |
| Reduced transport demand. | –0.4 | |
| Removing biofuels sales obligation. | +1.1 | |
| Industrial processes | –1.3 | |
| Projected reduced activity in industrial processes. | –0.6 | |
| Emissions from urea production are reallocated from industrial processes to stationary energy. | –0.7 | |
| Total energy and industrial processes | 0.0 |
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (2009).
The dry year in 2008 increased electricity emissions by between 0.6 million tonnes and 1.0 million tonnes. The projected energy emissions assume that a one-in-five year drought will reduce the hydro electricity supply and increase the thermal electricity generation emissions. For the remaining four years of the first commitment period (ie, 2009 to 2012) it is still assumed that a one-in-five year drought could occur.
Figure 5: Historical emissions data and projected energy emissions 1990–2012
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (2009).
Figure 6: Historical emissions data and projected transport emissions 1990–2012
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (2009).
Figure 7: Historical emissions data and projected stationary energy emissions 1990–2012
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (2009).
Figure 8: Historical emissions data and projected industrial processes emissions 1990–2012
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (2009).
Agriculture emissions
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has updated the Pastoral Supply Response Model. The key outputs of the model include projected animal performance data as well as animal populations, along with using a land-use change forecasting component. The Pastoral Supply Response Model is now linked to the inventory model used in calculating agricultural emissions.
Projected agricultural emissions from 2008 to 2012, using the improved model, are shown in Figure 10. Full details of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s modelling are provided as an appendix (Appendix A, MAF (2009a)).
New Zealand’s agriculture greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be 184.0 million tonnes – a decrease of 14.4 million tonnes (7 per cent) from the 198.5 million tonnes in the 2008 projection.
The drought during 2007/2008 decreased projected agricultural emissions by 10.3 million tonnes (5 per cent). The drought reduced emissions by causing a drop in stock numbers and by reducing the feed intake. Feed intake is a major input to estimating emissions because a lower feed intake reduces the emission per head of livestock.
The major source of New Zealand’s nitrous oxide emissions comes from nitrogen excreted in urine and dung by livestock. To estimate the indirect contribution to nitrous oxide from nitrogen excreted by livestock, the fraction of nitrogen in excreta on New Zealand pasture that converts to oxides of nitrogen is required. Until 2008 New Zealand used the international default value of 0.2 for this fraction (Fracgasm, Table 4.19 (IPCC 2000)). In a report for Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Sherlock et al (2008) reviewed the relevant studies for this fraction of livestock-excreted nitrogen, and found that a more accurate New Zealand-specific fraction would be 0.1. The Sherlock et al (2008) report was internationally peer reviewed. The lower fraction reduced projected agriculture emissions between 2008 and 2012 by 3.8 million tonnes (2 per cent).
The reduction of nitrous oxide emissions due to the application of a nitrification inhibitor has also been incorporated and accounts for a further reduction in emissions of 0.3 million tonnes between 2008–2012. The application of the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD) to dairy pastures reduces nitrous oxide emissions from fertiliser and animal-excreted nitrogen and nitrate leaching. In a report contracted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry on the use of dicyandiamide, Clough et al (2008) developed the methodology to quantify the effects of dicyandiamide on nitrous oxide emissions from New Zealand pasture.
Figure 9: Historical emissions data and projected agricultural emissions 1990–2012
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2009a).
Note: Other emissions include savanna burning, agricultural residue burning, nitrogen fixing crops and livestock emissions from poultry, pigs, horses and goats.
Waste emissions
The waste emissions projections were provided by the Ministry for the Environment (Appendix D, (MfE, 2009b)). Figure 10 shows historical data on emissions of greenhouse gases from the waste sector reported in the 2009 national greenhouse gas inventory submission (MfE, 2009a) and projected emissions by the Ministry for the Environment. Projected emissions from waste during 2008–2012 have increased by 1.1 million tonnes (15 per cent) compared to the 2008 projection. This is the result of improvements to the method used to model emissions from solid waste disposal.
Figure 10: Historical emissions data and projected waste emissions 1990–2012
Source: Historical emissions data and projected emissions, Ministry for the Environment (2009a,b).
Text description for figure 10
Emissions and removals from land use, land-use change and forestry
Projections of net removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (total removals less deforestation emissions) were provided by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (Appendix C, (MAF, 2009b)).
Net carbon dioxide removals are removals by afforestation and reafforestation, minus emissions from deforestation activities. Net removals are projected to be 85.0 million tonnes. This is an increase of 17.8 million tonnes of net removals over the first commitment period compared to the 2008 projection. The increase is due to:
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new information on post-1989 planted forests indicates that these forests are removing more carbon dioxide per hectare because they have been planted on more fertile sites than older forests. They have also received less intensive forest management, particularly thinning. These factors mean there are more trees per hectare growing at a faster rate. The impact of the change is a projected increase in removals from post-1989 forests of 8.2 million tonnes during the first commitment period 2008–2012. The information is from a preliminary analysis of the Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) planted forest inventory field data
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deforestation emissions are projected to be 9.6 million tonnes lower than in the May 2008 net position. This is due in part to improved information on the area of immature forests intended. This information has not been available previously. Deforestation of younger forests produces lower emissions than older forests. It was also assumed that all forest carbon is instantly emitted at the time of deforestation. It was previously assumed that harvesting residues decayed over time.
Emissions from solvents and other products
Solvents and other products’ emissions are less than 0.1 per cent of total emissions and are projected by a simple linear trend by the Ministry for the Environment and included in the estimate of the net position for completeness.
