• About this site|
• Site index|
• Contact us|
• Jobs

New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Foreword

Executive summary

1 Background

2. National circumstances

3. Greenhouse gas inventory

4. Policies and measures

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts, and adaptation measures

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

8. Research and systematic observations

9. Education, training and public participation

Annex A: Summary of emissions and removals from New Zealand's 2003 national inventory

Annex B: Supplementary information on Projections Modelling methodology

Annex C: Reporting under Kyoto Protocol Article 7.2

Annex D: Summary of Policies and Measures

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations and acronyms

References

New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)

New Zealand's Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

1. Domestic measures

2. Trends in, and projections of, greenhouse gas emissions

3. How measures contribute to meeting commitments

4. Actions and programmes under Articles 10 and 11 (technology and other cooperation; financial resources)

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures contd.

Domestic air transport

4NC Table 13 shows a summary of historical and projected emissions for the domestic air transport sector.

4NC Table 13: Historical and "with measures" emissions projections from air transport (Gg gas)

Note: The numbers 2005 onward are projections.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development

Domestic air transport is a relatively small portion of New Zealand's transport emissions, but is growing rapidly.

Domestic sea transport

4NC Table 14 shows a summary of historical and projected emissions for the domestic sea transport sector.

4NC Table 14: Historical and "with measures" emissions projections from domestic sea transport (Gg gas)

Note: The numbers 2005 onward are projections.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development

Like domestic air transport, domestic sea transport is also a small portion of New Zealand's total transport emissions. Unlike air transport, however, it is not growing very rapidly.

International transport

Although not included in the totals shown in 4NC Table 11 above, 4NC Tables 15 and 16 below show the imputed emissions from fuel sold in New Zealand for use in international air and sea transport, respectively. The sea transport numbers tend to be highly variable and difficult to project, since international sea carriers have some flexibility to choose the country where they buy their fuel, generally choosing the one offering the best price.

4NC Table 15: Historical and "with measures" emissions projections from international air transport (Gg gas)

Note: The numbers 2005 onward are projections.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development

4NC Table 16: Historical and "with measures" emissions projections from international sea transport (Gg gas)

Note: The numbers 2005 onward are projections.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development

Based on current trends, we expect international air transport emissions to continue to increase rapidly, while international sea transport emissions should decline modestly.

Comparison with the Third National Communication

4NC Table 17 shows a comparison of projected carbon dioxide emissions for the transport sector from the Third National Communication. As discussed previously, comparisons of projections for the other gases are not shown since historical numbers for these gases have been significantly revised and therefore comparisons of projections are not meaningful.

Projections of transport carbon dioxide emissions in this Fourth National Communication are significantly higher than in the Third National Communication due primarily to the more rapid than anticipated growth in road transport demand, especially diesel demand.

4NC Table 17: Comparison of carbon dioxide emissions from transport in the Third National Communication and Fourth National Communication (Gg CO₂)

View comparison of carbon dioxide emissions from transport in the Third National Communication and Fourth National Communication (Gg CO₂) (large table)

Industrial processes sector

Industrial process carbon dioxide emissions in New Zealand consist principally of emissions from the manufacture of steel, aluminium, urea, cement, lime and hydrogen, as well as oil and gas extraction. The outputs of most of these industries are expected to remain fairly stable; however, significant growth is anticipated in the cement industry. There are currently no adopted policies or measures that would have a significant impact on industrial process emissions.

4NC Table 18 compares emission projections in the Third National Communication with those in this Fourth National Communication. Compared to the Third National Communication, industrial process emissions are higher due principally to reclassification of emissions from urea processing, in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines, as industrial process emissions (they were previously classified as energy emissions).

4NC Table 18: Comparison of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes in the Third National Communication and Fourth National Communication (Gg CO₂)

View comparison of carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes in the Third National Communication and Fourth National Communication (Gg CO₂) (large table)

Emissions of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse and precursor gases from industrial processing and solvent and other product use make up a small part of New Zealand's total inventory and have not been projected. Emissions of perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride combined make up less than one percent of New Zealand's carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. Emissions from solvents and other product use have simply been extrapolated from actual emissions data from 1990 to 2003. Emissions of perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride were assumed to grow at the same rate projected for emissions of carbon dioxide from the industrial processes sector. New Zealand is reviewing its projection methodology for perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride and will be developing more robust projections for these gases in the future.

Agriculture sector

Overview

The Government's policy for agriculture has been to exempt non-carbon dioxide gases from price-based measures such as carbon taxes in exchange for the agricultural sector carrying out mitigation research. The agricultural sector has an objective of seeking to identify mitigation technologies and management practices that would mitigate nitrous oxide and methane emissions by 20 percent from "business as usual" by the end of the first commitment period. The extent to which this level of mitigation would actually occur on-farm has not been defined.

Projections of methane and nitrous oxide emissions to 2020 from the agricultural sector (4NC Table 19) are driven by future estimates of:

• animal numbers by species: dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep and deer to 2020 (4NC Table 20).
• enteric methane emissions per animal extrapolated from the annual changes in emissions per animal between 1990 and 2003 (4NC Table 21).
• nitrogen output per animal based extrapolated from annual changes in nitrogen output per animal between 1990 and 2003 (4NC Table 22)
• nitrogen fertiliser use based on annual rates of change of nitrogen fertiliser usage between 1990 and 2003 supplemented by industry forecasts (4NCTable 23).

4NC Table 19: "With measures" total emissions from the agriculture sector (Gg gas)

Note: The numbers for 2010 and 2020 are projections.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

The rate of growth in emissions from the agriculture sector is expected to decline due to the limitation on the increase in animal numbers or change in animal species balance, imposed by a finite potential agricultural land area and increasing competition from urbanisation.

The projections need to be assessed within the uncertainties of the biological processes involved and the economic circumstances of the agricultural industry, which are largely driven by overseas markets.

4NC Table 20: Historic and projected animal numbers (thousand head)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Projections of enteric methane emissions per animal

At present, animal performance in New Zealand is well below current biological limits and it seems reasonable to assume that the rate of increase in productivity per animal over the next 15 years should be similar to the rate of increase in animal performance over the past 13 years (Table 21). A linear extrapolation of methane emissions per animal to 2020 was therefore considered appropriate.

At some stage in the future the rate of productivity increase may well decline due to resource and biological limits being reached. However, there are industry strategy plans, such as for the dairy sector, which seek to improve productivity in economic farm surplus by three percent per annum. If successful, this would indicate that future productivity gains could be higher that the historic productivity trend.

4NC Table 21: Annual methane emissions per animal 1990 and 2020

Note: (1) The correlation coefficient (r) for the linear trend in per animal emissions 1990-2003.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Projections of nitrous oxide emissions

Nitrous oxide emissions from animal excreta are a function of the quantity of nitrogen excreted which is estimated from feed intake per annum, the nitrogen content of feed minus the nitrogen retained in animal product. Projections of nitrogen output per animal in 2020 (4NCTable 22) were derived from the linear trends of nitrogen output per animal 1990 to 2003 reported in the national inventory. Nitrous oxide emissions per animal in 2020 were then calculated using the national inventory methodology.

4NC Table 22: Annual nitrogen excreta per animal 1990 and 2020

Note: (1) The correlation coefficient (r) for the linear trend in per animal nitrogen excreta 1990-2003.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Projection of nitrogen fertiliser use

Nitrogen fertiliser use has increased nearly six-fold from 1990 to 2003. The projected value for 2010 was 433,700 tonnes of nitrogen (4NC Table 24).

Assumptions of future nitrogen fertiliser use

The nitrogen application rate in New Zealand is significantly lower than in most other OECD countries. For example, the amount of fertiliser nitrogen applied per hectare in New Zealand in 2002 was 17.7 kilograms per hectare compared to the OECD country average of 59.3 kilograms per hectare. There is significant potential for large increases in total nitrogen applied.

The limitations on the continuing increasing application of nitrogen fertiliser include policies that limit nitrogen use in some national iconic catchments such as Lake Taupo and Lake Rotorua, the Clean Streams Accord, and other local government directives on good fertiliser practice which seek to limit fertiliser nitrogen application. Another factor limiting the upwards trajectory for nitrogen inputs is the increasing price of nitrogen fertiliser. This will be driven by increasing world energy (natural gas is a significant feedstock in nitrogen fertiliser manufacture) and shipping costs.

The impact of the clover root weevil, a recently discovered biosecurity pest, will also affect future use of nitrogenous fertilisers. Clover root weevil reduces the natural nitrogen fixation from white clover and therefore nitrogen inputs into the agricultural systems. The loss of naturally fixed nitrogen from white clover currently can only be managed by the replacement of lost fixed nitrogen with synthetic fertiliser nitrogen, supplementary feed input or through reduced stocking rates. Trials are underway with a promising biological agent, a parasitic Irish wasp, to mitigate the effects of clover root weevil. If effective, the actual future use of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser may be lower than currently projected.

4NC Table 23: Nitrogen fertiliser applied - actual and projected to 2020 (kilotonnes)

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and fertiliser industry estimates

Other animal species and greenhouse gas sources

No projections were derived for the emissions of minor animal species present in the national inventory; that is, horses, goats, pigs, and poultry. This was also the case for nitrous oxide emission from crop stubble burning, savannah burning and nitrogen-fixing crops. These emission sources make up less than four percent of the agricultural sector emissions. There was no basis to assume that any of these emission sources would be significantly different from the present levels. The impact of large changes in these small emission sources on total national emissions would be small and so 2003 inventory emission levels were used through to 2020.

Comparison with the Third National Communication

The method of calculation of emissions has been significantly modified in this communication compared with the Third National Communication, and therefore the results are not directly comparable. A major revision of the inventory methodology, from a modified Tier 1 approach to a Tier 2 approach (according to IPCC, Good Practice Guidance, 2001) was undertaken in 2003. Projections now take into account improvements in animal performance over time, use different methane emission factors based on empirical research carried out in New Zealand, and have different nitrogen input variables for calculating nitrous oxide emissions. These modifications were implemented due to new information obtained from a research programme designed specifically to improve the national inventory for agriculture.

Land use, land-use change and forestry sector

Overview

The land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector accounted for net removals (including emissions of methane and nitrous oxide) of approximately 22,861 Gg CO₂ in 2003. This equals 30 percent of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2003.

New Zealand has 6.256 million hectares of natural forest and 1.8 million hectares of planted production forest. It is currently assumed that New Zealand's natural forests are a relatively stable carbon reservoir. A national carbon monitoring system is being established to provide robust estimates of carbon stocks and changes in carbon stocks in natural forests.

Production forest planting rates have fluctuated significantly since afforestation programmes commenced in New Zealand in the 1920s (4NC Figure 35). The average afforestation rate over the last 30 years has been 44,900 hectares per year. In the period from 1992 to 1998, afforestation rates were high (averaging 69,000 hectares per year). Since 1998, the rate of afforestation has declined and in 2003, 19,900 hectares of new forest were established.

New investment in forest planting is currently at a low level. It is provisionally estimated that 10,600 hectares of new forest were established in 2004. There are no indications that the level of new planting will increase under current market conditions. Therefore, the scenario presented in these projections of carbon dioxide removals by planted forests is conservative and based on the current afforestation rate of 10,000 hectares per year from 2005.

The projections include carbon stock change on forest land due to forest growth with an allowance for carbon stock change associated with harvesting and the clearance of sparse woody vegetation (scrub) for afforestation. Non-carbon dioxide emissions from wildfires and prescribed burning are also included. However, although Tier 1 estimates were made of carbon stock changes in the non-forest land categories in the 2003 greenhouse gas inventory reported to the UNFCCC, these accounted for only one percent of the 2003 net removals in the sector and have not been estimated for the projections. Soil carbon stock changes have also not been included.

Upper and lower projections for new plantings are within the range from zero to 30,000 hectares per year. Based on the four scenarios for new planting, projected total removals of carbon dioxide by planted forests (net of emissions from land-use changes) are illustrated in 4NC Figure 36. Fluctuations in annual carbon dioxide removals are due to changing rates of new planting and harvesting.

Carbon dioxide emissions and removals

Carbon dioxideremovals by planted forests, emissions from forest harvesting and land conversion to forest land (and hence total carbon dioxideremovals) are reported in 4NC Table 24 for the period from 1990 to 2020 and intervening years, using the current afforestation rate.

4NC Table 24: Carbon dioxide removals and emissions from land-use change and forestry (Gg CO₂)5

Notes:

1. CO₂ removals represent the change in plantation living and dead carbon pools. Soil carbon is excluded.

2. CO₂ emissions from harvesting include harvesting from both plantation and natural forests.

3. Other CO₂ emissions are from scrub clearance for afforestation.. Carbon released in wildfires is not included - only non-CO₂ emissions are reported from this source.

4. No carbon release/uptake from other land uses (e.g., cropland conversion) is included.

5. Assumes the current afforestation rate of 10,000 ha/yr from 2005.

6. The numbers 2005 onward are projections

Measuring and comparing annual total removals of carbon dioxideby planted forests can, however, provide a misleading picture of the underlying changes and processes involved in protecting and enhancing sinks and reservoirs. This is because measuring the relative change in annual removals neglects the magnitude and direction of total carbon storage in the intervening periods. 4NC Figure 37 illustrates the cumulative total of carbon dioxidestored in planted forest stocks and compares this with annual estimates of carbon dioxideremovals. The lower planting rates forecasted post-2004 result in a decline in annual carbon dioxide removals by planted forests.

Non-carbon dioxide emissions

There are limited non-carbon dioxide emissions from the land use, land-use change and forestry sector (4NC Table 25). Non-carbon dioxide emissions primarily occur in the burning of both forest biomass and grassland with woody vegetation.

4NC Table 25: Non-carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change and forestry (Gg CO₂ equivalent)

Notes:

Estimates include emissions from wildfires in forest and scrub and controlled burning of scrub for afforestation.

Estimates do not include non-CO₂ emissions from controlled burning or wildfires in grassland remaining grassland, or non-CO₂ emissions from N fertilisation.

Assumes the current afforestation rate of 10,000 ha/yr from 2005.

The numbers 2005 onward are projections.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Comparison with the Third National Communication

Projections of annual planting rates of 40,000 and 60,000 hectares in the Third National Communication have not occurred. New planting rates have fallen steadily since 2000. In 2004 it is provisionally estimated that just 10,600 hectares of new forest were established. This highlights the considerable uncertainties in predicting future afforestation, particularly in the medium to longer term.

The differences between the projected removals in the Fourth and Third National Communications result primarily from the changes in forecast harvesting and afforestation rates. The large increase in removals in 2005 is due to a lower actual harvesting rate than was forecast in 2002. Similar removals are projected for 2010. However, with the assumed low rate of future afforestation, carbon dioxide removals out to 2020 are much lower than earlier projections (Table 26).

4NC Table 26: Total carbon dioxide removals from land-use change and forestry: comparison of Fourth National Communication and Third National Communication projections

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Projections of carbon removed by Kyoto forests in the first commitment period

New Zealand had approximately 660,000 hectares of Kyoto forests (that is, forests planted after 1990) in 2004. High rates of afforestation occurred over the period from 1992 to 1998. Since 1998, afforestation rates have steadily declined. In 2004, afforestation has decreased to 10,600 hectares (provisional). At an assumed afforestation rate of 10,000 hectares per annum from 2005 on, Kyoto forests are projected to remove 94 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over the first commitment period (4NC Table 30). A pessimistic scenario of no further new planting would result in 91 million tonnes of carbon dioxide being removed from the atmosphere, with an optimistic scenario of 30,000 hectares per year planted resulting in 101 million tonnes of carbon dioxide being removed from the atmosphere over the first commitment period.

A very recent phenomenon that has started to occur is the conversion of plantation forest land to other land uses. Historically, very little conversion of plantation forest land has occurred in New Zealand. For the purposes of projections, deforestation emissions have been estimated as a range from 6.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (historic rate) to 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (deforestation of 10 percent of the area expected to be harvested in the first commitment period).

4NC Table 27: Projected Kyoto Protocol first commitment period carbon dioxide removals and emissions (Mt CO₂) from planted forests

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Waste sector

Total methane emissions from waste are projected to continue to decrease to 2020 (4NC Table 28).

4NC Table 28: Historical and projected New Zealand waste sector methane emissions (Gg methane)

Source: Ministry for the Environment

Wastewater

Methane emissions from wastewater are projected to increase with population over the next two decades.

Landfill methane

Methane emissions from landfills are expected to be significantly below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and continue to decline towards 2020. 4NC Figure 38 presents updated information developed after the 2003 inventory was submitted.

Landfill methane emission calculations were carried out using the IPCC Tier 2, first order decay methodology (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001). Further descriptions of the methodology can be found in the National Inventory Report, April 2005. The projections were performed using the same methodologies but allowing for population increase and increased recovery of landfill gas.

The Ministry for the Environment developed the Solid Waste Analysis Protocol to monitor compositional changes in waste disposed to landfills. Results from the 2002 survey show that there has been a significant reduction in the proportion of putrescibles in the waste stream. At the same time, the 2003 Landfill Survey showed that the total volume of waste being disposed to landfills has reduced per person.

Estimates of landfill gas recovery have been revised to take account of the national environmental standard to control methane emissions from landfills, which was introduced in October 2004. The standard sets a consistent national approach to the management of landfill methane emissions by requiring all operating landfills over one million tonnes capacity to collect and destroy landfill gas.

Comparison with the Third National Communication

There are some significant differences between the data in this report and those contained in the Third National Communication for greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector. These differences are in the 1990 baseline, the gross emissions to 2020 and the recovered emissions to 2020. All of these are due to changes in waste flow composition, reducing waste volumes person, and increasing recovery rates. The change to the 1990 baseline is mostly due to soil moving from the organic waste category to rubble/concrete as a result of the 2003 analysis of solid waste composition.