3. How measures contribute to meeting commitments
The projections described above include the estimated impacts of the climate change policy settings as of the end of December 2005. These settings do not include new policies and measures under consideration.
Energy sector
The projected emissions from the energy and industrial processes sectors are a product of modelling the complex interactions of the New Zealand energy sector. The scenarios evaluated are not an attempt to project what will actually happen in the energy sector; rather they attempt to provide a range of possible outcomes under a number of different assumptions.
The abatement from some policies in the climate change policy package that impact mainly on the energy sector but that are not easily included in the energy sector modelling are deducted from model runs separately. The energy sector projections reflect the combined effect of the Projects to Reduce Emissions programme, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, local government initiatives, and the energy-intensive small and medium enterprises and business opportunities programme.
Agriculture sector
The projections of emissions from the agriculture sector in the period 2008 to 2012 do not include any potential impacts of the work undertaken by the research consortium. The potential of technologies to reduce emissions in this sector is more likely to be in the longer term, rather than in the next five years. New products currently entering the market will lower the emissions intensity of agriculture, but as yet the impacts have not been quantified.
Waste sector
The projections for emissions from the waste sector reflect the effects of the New Zealand Waste Strategy and the national environmental standard for landfill gas collection. Since 1990 there has been a large decrease in emissions due to decreased waste volumes and less organic matter entering landfills. The New Zealand Waste Strategy and the national environmental standard for landfill gas collection are projected to further decrease emissions from waste.
Land use, land-use change and forestry sector
The projections of removals of carbon dioxide via forest sinks reflect consideration of three scenarios of new forest planting (zero, 10,000 and 30,000 hectares per year). Current planting rates are around 10,000 to 15,000 hectares per year. The historical average planting rate is around 40,000 hectares per year meaning that the estimate of 10,000 hectares per year is low in the historical context. The projections include emissions from deforestation and from the burning of scrub prior to forest planting. At this stage no estimate has been included in the projections for the Permanent Forest Sinks Initiative.
