8. Research and systematic observations
Introduction
New Zealand has continued to promote and collaborate in research and systematic observations, as required by Articles 4 and 5 of the UNFCCC. Estimated central Government expenditure on climate change-related research and systematic observations for the 2003/04 financial year is NZ$31.9 million, an increase of NZ$10.9 million over the amount reported in the Third National Communication (Ministry for the Environment, 2001). This expenditure was complemented by an estimated NZ$0.1 million expenditure by regional government, and NZ$1.2 million by the private sector. Expenditure on systematic observations by central Government included NZ$8.5 million through contracts to the Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited (MetService) for its observing network and NZ$1.4 million through contracts to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research for maintaining the National Climate Database. Through this expenditure, climate observations have been maintained, new knowledge has been generated about climate change and its impacts in New Zealand and the south-west Pacific, and adaptation and mitigation options are being developed.
New Zealand is making a substantial input to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by supporting one scientist as a member of the IPCC Bureau and providing convening lead authors for two chapters, and lead and contributing authors and review editors for several more chapters. Officials have participated in planning and other meetings related to the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Research groups participated in international research and observation programmes of the World Meteorological Organization; World Climate Research Programme; International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, including GCOS and its Pacific component, PI-GCOS; and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. MetService, under a New Zealand Government contract, provides some assistance to a number of Pacific Island nations with their weather and climate observing systems. Past New Zealand Overseas Development Aid programmes have covered training in technical maintenance and observing practices in several of these states. New Zealand continues to lead the publication of the Island Climate Update, a monthly paper and web publication produced by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research with the support and collaboration of various organisations in the Pacific Islands, Australia, United States, and France. The Island Climate Update provides updates of current climate conditions and outlooks for the coming season to assist Pacific Island nations in adapting to climate variability and change.
Research and systematic observations policy and funding
Strategy for research and systematic observations
The New Zealand Government is operating a balanced portfolio of research that aims to address core national needs, to support areas of national research excellence. It also aims to maintain and develop international linkages that ensure collaboration with international research programmes and the contribution to, and rapid uptake of, emerging new global technologies.
Research providers are selected through competitive bidding. To be allocated funding, the areas of research must align with strategic directions and goals set by the Government and contained in long-term goals such as the Sustainable Development Programme of Action, and sector-specific research strategies. Funding for climate change research is dominated by central Government programmes, with additional contributions from local government and the private sector, including a number of joint ventures and partnerships. Government-funded research ranges from fundamental and underpinning research to applied research and operational research, including the development of specific tools and technologies. The range of different funding mechanisms is explained in more detail below.
New Zealand faces a number of significant challenges in meeting its climate change research needs. The diversity of the country, with climatic zones ranging from subtropical to subantarctic, means that research has to address climate change projections and the likely effects of climate change on a very diverse range of ecosystems. Mitigation and adaptation research has to cover equally diverse issues including energy, transport in a country with a low population base but large travel distances, substantial agricultural and forestry activities, energy demand and supply, and the sustainable development of growing urban settlements, often at or near coastal areas. The dependence of New Zealand's economy on export and international trade also means that mitigation options that are being developed and implemented need to be compatible with the commercial requirements and technology standards of the international market.
The current portfolio of climate change research has grown out of the work of the National Science Strategy Committee for Climate Change, set up by the Government in 1991. The committee developed a comprehensive strategy for climate change research in 2002 (the New Zealand Climate Change Research Strategy 2002). The strategy provides advice on strategic research needs and efforts between Crown research institutes, universities, Government departments and the private sector. In 2003, the committee was disestablished and the responsibility for reviewing the strategy was transferred to the Ministry for the Environment. The Ministry for the Environment works with other Government departments involved in climate change policies and strategic policy development, and liaises closely with New Zealand scientists and science organisations, to monitor and review the adequacy of the climate change research portfolio to meet national needs.
Because of New Zealand's unique emissions profile (with around 50 percent of greenhouse gas emissions generated from agriculture) and the significant contribution to the economic productivity from the agriculture sector, there is a particular need to undertake research to understand the effects and adaptation options as well as options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for this sector. The Government has joined with the private sector to form the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium (which funds research into reducing agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions), aiming to develop tools that allow mitigation of non-carbon dioxidegreenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector without loss of productivity.
Additional input to strategic research directions comes from the Royal Society of New Zealand's Climate Committee, which provides advice on the establishment and maintenance of linkages with international climate change research programmes including the World Climate Research Programme and the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme. The committee also facilitates interaction between scientists and stakeholders in New Zealand.
Funding policies
The Foundation for Research, Science and Technology has the main responsibility for funding climate change research from public investment. The Foundation's investment structure comprises 18 portfolio research strategies that provide overall direction for its research investment. Each strategy is further arranged into Target Outcomes and Themes that relate to a specific desired outcome. Most of the Foundation's investment in climate change research is funded within the Understanding and Adapting to Global Environmental Change (GLO) portfolio which invests in knowledge and datasets that underpin and enable management of the social, economic and environmental risks and opportunities associated with global environmental change and variability. The Global Environmental Change portfolio has two Target Outcomes:
GLO1 - Characteristics, causes and consequences of global change and variability
Increased understanding of the characteristics, causes and consequences of global processes, variation and change (in and between the atmospheric, biogeophysical environments and in the Antarctic and surrounding oceans and seabeds), as a basis for anticipating and managing future opportunities and impacts within New Zealand and globally.
GLO2 - Mitigation and adaptation responses to global change and variability
New Zealand has tools to enable it to respond to environmental change in a timely manner that minimises negative impacts and maximises economic opportunities and based on a better understanding of what motivates people to mitigate and adapt to global change and variability.
SPS1 - Environmentally, economically and socially sustainable primary production
New Zealand's primary production value chains are internationally recognised and accepted as best practice in terms of environmental, economic and social sustainability. This recognition ensures a cost-competitive position and ongoing access to world markets.
Under Target Outcome SPS1 sits a theme:
1.1 International treaty obligations
Management systems, tools, devices, materials and genetics implemented to allow New Zealand's primary sector industries to meet Montreal Process and Kyoto Protocol obligations for verification and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, and to benefit from opportunities created by those agreements.
Research within such a portfolio would contribute to mitigating the industry's effect on the environment including the production of greenhouse gases.
The Foundation for Research, Science and Technology also collates information on all research relevant to climate change conducted within all its portfolios for the purpose of analysing the contribution being made to New Zealand's climate change effort overall. Data is self-reported by contract holders and audited by Foundation for Research, Science and Technology staff.
The Foundation for Research, Science and Technology's investment strategies for climate change research are developed in consultation with key stakeholders, as described in "Strategy for research and systematic observations"section above.
Funding levels
Funding for climate change research and systematic observations in New Zealand is administered through several channels. The predominant channel for central Government funding of strategic research is the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology. The Foundation purchases a portfolio of climate change research from various providers (Crown research institutes, universities and private organisations), guided by the funding policies outlined in the previous section. The Foundation's funding also covers the archiving and part of the collection costs for systematic climate observations. Some additional Government support for research comes through the Marsden Fund, administered by the Royal Society of New Zealand and not subject to Government research priorities; through funding for university research within Vote: Education; the Health Research Council through Vote: Health; and the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium through Vote: Agriculture.
There is also direct funding of research in some climate change areas by core Government departments to meet operational and policy development needs.
Systematic observations are in part-funded through the Crown contract for public weather forecasts and warnings administered by the Ministry of Transport and awarded to the Meteorological Service of New Zealand, which covers routine upper air and surface weather observations that are also used for climate purposes. Further observations for climate needs are funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology and both weather and climate observations are incorporated in the National Climate Database, managed by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research under contract to the Foundation. Additional support for observations in the Pacific is provided through the New Zealand Aid division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
New Zealand's 15 regional councils, which have primary responsibility for resource and hazard management, along with some other local councils, also undertake environmental monitoring and fund some climate change research to help them develop community or regional policies.
4NC Table 38: Estimated annual investment (New Zealand dollars) in climate change research and systematic observations, by funding source
| Funder | Estimated annual climate change research and observation funding |
|---|---|
Central Government research funds and universities (Breakdown: FRST $22.4M; Marsden $1.6M; universities $0.3M; CRIs $0.8M; HRC $0.2M) |
25,179,246 |
Central Government - systematic observations |
9,900,000 |
Central Government - research from operational funds |
6,692,415 |
Regional government |
142,372 |
Private sector |
1,151,332 |
Overall total |
43,674,644 |
Note: Funding is for 2003/04.
4NC Table 39: Estimated annual investment (New Zealand dollars) in climate change research (not including systematic observations), by research category
| Research category | Expenditure | Percentage of total expenditure |
|---|---|---|
Fundamental knowledge generation |
$15,964,135 |
47% |
Scenarios, prediction and impacts modelling |
$6,830,917 |
20% |
Mitigation - reduction of greenhouse gas emissions |
$6,601,702 |
20% |
Adaptation to the effects of climate change |
$2,808,827 |
8% |
Human behaviour and socio-economic impacts |
$1,569,065 |
5% |
Total expenditure |
$33,774,646 |
4NC Tables 38 and 39 summarises the estimated annual investment in climate change-related research and monitoring from the sources outlined above, as well as from the private sector. The tables are based on information in the annual survey of climate change research for 2003/04 conducted by the Ministry for the Environment, and figures supplied by the Meteorological Service of New Zealand and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
Information exchange and dissemination of knowledge
Domestically, the Ministry for the Environment works to disseminate research findings on climate change, mitigation options and adaptation processes and methodologies, to ensure New Zealanders:
- are well-informed on human modification of climate
- better understand existing knowledge and uncertainties regarding the effects of climate variability and future climate change
- identify and implement technologies that underpin New Zealand's Kyoto Protocol commitments and long-term needs to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- participate effectively in managing and adapting to the impacts of climate change, including making use of any opportunities that may arise.
International exchange of data and information
New Zealand exchanges data and information with other countries in line with the policies of the World Meteorological Organization. Appropriate weather observations useful for climate modelling are disseminated in real time through standard World Meteorological Organization channels, and climate and greenhouse gas monitoring data is provided to appropriate World Data Centres.
New Zealand has identified particular opportunities for the dissemination of real-time climate data through the Pacific, to provide up-to-date information on current climate conditions and seasonal outlooks to Pacific Island nations and help them deal with climate variability. This led to the establishment of the Island Climate Update, a monthly paper and web publication produced by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research with the support and collaboration of organisations in the Pacific Islands, Australia, United States, and France. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research also produces a similar monthly publication for New Zealand (the Climate Update). Additional exchanges of information occur under the auspices of PI-GCOS and the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research.
Partnerships
Bilateral partnerships
New Zealand has established a climate change partnership with the United States to enhance dialogue and practical cooperation on climate change issues. The partnership was launched on 25 October 2002. As an example of the scope of this partnership, the most recent projects, announced in July 2004, covered: a study of global methane emissions; the rescue and digitisation of historic climate data; work on carbon dioxide sequestration in coal seams; work to develop new materials for the hydrogen economy; work on nitrous oxide emissions from grazed pastures, and the hosting of a joint event with Australia, to work with developing countries in the Pacific on climate observation.
A second bilateral climate change partnership, between Australia and New Zealand, was announced on 7 July 2003.
Multilateral partnerships
New Zealand is a member of the International Energy Agency and the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy and has observer status at the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum.
International organisations
New Zealand is an active member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and exchanges information and data both through WMO and through its subsidiary and associated bodies. Through membership of GCOS and its Pacific arm, PI-GCOS, and through the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, New Zealand works to further facilitate such data exchange.
Research
This section provides information on highlights, innovations and significant efforts made with regard to climate change research in New Zealand. More details about the research projects funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology can be obtained from their searchable database of abstracts and project reports (http://www.frst.govt/nz/database), using the search term "climate change".
Trends from New Zealand climate observations, research-based scenarios for future regional changes, and research results on impacts vulnerability and adaptation are currently being compiled and assessed for the Australia and New Zealand chapter of the Working Group II volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, scheduled for completion in 2007.
Climate processes and climate system studies
Atmospheric chemistry
Measurements and computer modelling are continuing to improve knowledge about the sources, sinks and transport of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This work includes participation in the international total carbon column observing network, and isotope ratio measurements of methane from container ships travelling regularly between New Zealand and Japan. Carbon 14 isotope measurements made over the past two solar cycles indicate there has been little change in atmospheric concentration of the hydroxyl radical, despite changes in atmospheric composition through that period. The constituents of air trapped in Antarctic firn (packed snow) are being analysed to improve understanding of holocene climate. Research is also under way on the implications of climate change for the recovery of stratospheric ozone concentrations.
Ocean-atmosphere gas exchange
New Zealand scientists led the international SAGE experiment in April 2004, in which iron fertilisation of the sub-Antarctic ocean led to very little response in terms of algal bloom or associated enhanced uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Researchers are now attempting to understand the biological and physical factors leading to this limited response. New Zealand is hosting a SOLAS workshop, a project of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP), to review all of the ocean iron fertilisation experiments undertaken to date and their implications for oceanic carbon dioxide uptake. Work is also continuing on improved techniques for assessing the effects of biogenic sulphur emissions on aerosol and cloud properties that may affect the radiation balance over the Southern Ocean.
Land-atmosphere and land-ocean interactions
Research which was reported in the Third National Communication on land-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide and the effects of land-use changes, land management and erosion, has now been operationalised into the national carbon monitoring systems for forest and scrub vegetation and for soil carbon. Research continues on carbon dioxide fluxes over scrubland, and on validation by both flux-based and inventory methods of estimates of total exchange and net sequestration of carbon dioxide (and its spatial variability).
New Zealand riverine sediments and carbon yields have been estimated at the national scale, showing that erosion exacerbated by past deforestation causes significant amounts of carbon to enter the sea surrounding New Zealand. Marine geological evidence has been examined, showing that the great majority of terrigenous sediment is trapped on coastal shelves. An important research question now is to determine the fate of such terrigenous carbon on the New Zealand continental shelf - is it sequestered (buried or transported to abyssal depths), or volatilised and eventually released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide?
Climatic variability and trends
Work continues on identifying and understanding the causes of variability and trends in atmospheric, oceanic, mountain glacier and sea ice conditions in New Zealand, the south-west Pacific and Antarctica. This includes work on the influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on New Zealand patterns of rainfall, temperature, wind and river flow, on the predictability of seasonal climate variability, and on separating these effects out from the long-term trends which may be due to anthropogenic forcing. Increased emphasis is being given to studies of changes in the frequency of extremes such as frost and intense rainfall, and their statistical significance. Trends in ocean circulation in the South Pacific and their relationship to atmospheric changes have been analysed, and New Zealand has played a major part in deploying Argo floats in the South Pacific (with financial support from the United States). Research is also in progress on sea ice in the Ross Sea area of Antarctica, and relationships between its extent and atmospheric circulation.
Paleoclimate
The New Zealand INITIMATE (Integrated Ice, Marine and Terrestrial records) project is identifying timing of major climatic events and shifts over the past 30,000 years from New Zealand glacial and non-glacial landscape changes, terrestrial and marine sediment records, pollen and other biological records, speleothems and tree rings. The aim is to identify past inter-hemispheric climate linkages to determine the relative roles of greenhouse gas changes and changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation. This project aligns with the goals of the PANASH project of the IGBP PAGES programme. Speleothem and tree-ring records are also being examined for periodicities, including the effects of past El Niño - La Niña cycles. Studies of early Cenozoic sedimentary rocks exposed in eastern New Zealand are being used to validate general circulation models for the Eocene (50 million years ago), a time when atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations approached 500 parts per million.
The Cape Roberts drilling project (Ross Dependency, Antarctica) has documented changes in Antarctic climate, sea level and ice cover from 34 to 17 million years ago. Planning is underway for drilling two more cores in the McMurdo Sound region in 2006 and 2007, as part of the international ANDRILL project to better understand Antarctic climate, ice and sea level changes over the last several million years with a special interest in warm periods.
New Zealand is developing a capability, integrated within the SCAR ITASE project, to use ice cores for studying climate behaviour over the Antarctic margin over the last few thousand years.
Modelling and prediction, including general circulation models
Regional climate scenarios for New Zealand through the 21st century, based on statistical downscaling from global climate models, were extended to correspond to the full range of global temperature projections resulting from the SRES scenarios used in the 2001 IPCC Assessment Report. Future scenarios for soil moisture changes (expressed in terms of potential evapotranspiration deficit) were also developed, to investigate possible changes in drought frequency.
Staff from the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) collaborated with scientists from the United Kingdom Meteorological Service under the C20C (climate of the 20th century) international research project. The United Kingdom Unified Model was run on NIWA's Cray computer to simulate the Earth's climate between 1870 and 2000 under natural forcing alone, forcing by the historical concentrations of greenhouse gases through this period alone, and the combination of these. A regional climate modelling capability has now also been implemented at NIWA based on the UK Unified Model. It has so far been used to simulate current climate and paleoclimate conditions, as a prelude to future climate runs to complement scenarios developed by statistical downscaling. Atmospheric transport and chemistry modelling capabilities have also been developed around the Unified Model, and applied in the atmospheric chemistry work reported earlier in this chapter.
Ocean modelling capability has also been implemented on the NIWA Cray, using the UK Unified Model, and also using a separate ocean model (ROMS). Initial validation runs and sensitivity experiments have been undertaken.
Research on the impacts of climate change
Recent and ongoing impacts research includes the following topic areas.
Hydrology
Research drawing on a range of IPCC scenarios and climate models has suggested soils in the east of New Zealand will experience more long dry periods (droughts) over the coming century. Initial results are now also available on implications of these same scenarios for future river flows, and further analysis and research on this topic is planned. Initial research and modelling has also been undertaken on possible increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events, and potential implications for flooding in some locations.
Coastal impacts
Further analyses have been published on long-term trends in New Zealand sea level measurements, and on the effects of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Several regional studies have identified potential changes in probability of exceedance curves of extreme high water levels over the next century for various sea-level rise scenarios, and have also considered possible implications of climate change for coastal erosion. A software tool called CoastCLIM, comprising a linked place-specific sea-level scenario generator and shoreline change model has been developed for examining the sensitivity of coastal systems to various model parameters and their uncertainties.
Fisheries
Recent research has provided further evidence that the stocks of certain New Zealand fish species are influenced by climate variability, and also that year-to-year changes in ocean temperature and freshwater runoff from the land can affect some coastal aquaculture operations. However knowledge of the response of ocean conditions and ecosystems around New Zealand to climate change is still insufficient to confidently predict future impacts on fisheries and aquaculture.
Agriculture
Potential changes in drought frequency over the coming century have been identified for a range of climate scenarios, which are likely to affect dryland farming in eastern areas of New Zealand. The continuing long-term FACE (Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) experiment is studying a grazed pasture ecosystem under the carbon dioxide concentration expected in 2030. As well as production data and evaluation of appropriate plant germplasm for the future, the research is directed at changes in biodiversity and the long-term consequences of elevated carbon dioxide for nutrient cycling and availability. These findings are integrated in an ecosystem model ("EcoMod") to evaluate interactions with other drivers such as temperature, rainfall and land use.
Research is underway, in collaboration with European groups, on the influence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the nutrient quality of grain crops. A range of projects are examining adaptation and physiological responses to climate for various horticultural crops.
Plantation forestry
A study has recently been completed on likely changes in forest fire risk over New Zealand in coming decades as a consequence of climate change.
Natural ecosystems
Ongoing research includes studies of the influence of climate change and rising carbon dioxide levels on the alpine tree line, the influence of temperature on the biology of native invertebrates and reptiles, and on the influence of climate on mast (synchronised episodic) seeding in New Zealand plants. Development continues of models to predict vegetation composition from climate parameters. Scientists and Māori groups are collaborating on research on indigenous forest regeneration in relation to future climate scenarios, and in studying the impacts of climate-ocean variability on the population of various sea-bird species.
Urban environment, transport and energy
Research is continuing on identifying likely future impacts of climate change on buildings, due to changes in (for example) temperature, heavy rainfall frequency and flood risk. Various regional studies have identified potential impacts of changing climate on stormwater drainage, flood risk to roads, bridges and structures, and coastal development. Research is also under way to evaluate impacts of present climate variability and projected future changes on renewable energy supply and energy demand.
Health
An empirical model has been developed to predict changes in the geographic areas at risk of dengue fever transmission under current and future climate scenarios. Analysis of dengue fever has suggested a role of inter-annual changes in climate in the timing of epidemics. Analyses have quantified the role of weather and seasonal patterns on certain gastrointestinal diseases. Descriptive studies have assessed the interaction between climate, ecosystem changes and population vulnerability in determining current and future impacts of climate change on human health.
Māori
Collaborative research with Māori on impacts of present and future climate on forest regeneration, and on indigenous sea bird species including titi (a traditional food for some iwi) has been mentioned above. Work is also under way with some rural Māori groups to identify potential impacts of climate change on their activities (and ways in which Māori have traditionally adapted to climate variations).
Socio-economic analysis, including impacts and response options
The CLIMPACTS programme has recently developed methods and tools for assessing the "human dimensions" of climate change. These developments include the capacity to generate scenarios of land-use changes, to examine adaptation options and to evaluate benefits and costs. Part of the effort has been to create a flexible "open framework" model system (SimCLIM) that can be customised by end users. These tools are part of a larger methodology, called CCAIRR (Climate Change Adaptation through Integrated Risk Reduction) which promotes the "mainstreaming" of adaptation into decision-making. These integrated methods and tools, developed and applied initially in New Zealand, have also been applied in Australia, Sri Lanka and various Pacific Island countries.
Economic modelling work has identified impacts of climate variations on New Zealand GDP through changes in dairy production. Similar work is in progress to identify impacts flowing through the energy sector due to climate-induced variations in water inflows to hydroelectricity generation systems and in energy demand for space-heating.
An integrated socio-economic/natural-science land-use model is now being developed for use in policy design and analysis for land-use and climate change issues. Initial studies with the model are exploring the likely influence on changes of land use in to and out of "Kyoto" forests of various possible policies, including different levels of carbon pricing. A further economics research project has examined greenhouse gas emission paths in connection with different New Zealand economic development scenarios.
Research and development on mitigation
Research and development on mitigation has expanded since the Third National Communication. This has been driven by New Zealand's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and amendments to the Resource Management Act which place responsibilities on local government to "have particular regard to the effects of climate change" when making decisions. A major development has been the establishment of the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium, to understand, and provide mitigation solutions for, greenhouse gases produced by grazing animals.
Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions
This research has two strands: Improving the inventory of New Zealand agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and identifying and developing ways to reduce emissions. Improved methods for measuring methane emissions at animal, herd and farm scale are relevant to both strands since they provide validation for emission reductions technologies and assist with inventory improvement. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions functions have been integrated into an ecosystem model ("EcoMod") in a joint New Zealand-Australian project. The model is being used to evaluate mitigation options and to refine methodologies used in compiling the national inventory.
Methane emission inventories
Agricultural inventory research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry includes: validating the SF6 (sulphurhexafluoride) technique used for measuring animal methane emissions, using calorimetry (joint research with Australian researchers); exploring whether the emission factor for growing lambs is different from that for mature stock; exploring whether afforestation of pasture increases methane uptake; and using satellite imagery to assess the time changes in mean nitrogen concentrations and digestibility values of pasture for incorporation into the national inventory.
Methane inventory work funded from other sources includes: developing and validating methods for estimating methane emissions at paddock, farm and regional scales; developing low-cost sensor technology for measuring on-farm methane concentrations; use of open path laser technology for verifying paddock-scale methane emissions; investigating how ruminant emissions might change as a result of climate change (for example, from feeding on vegetation growing under higher carbon dioxide concentrations); exploring the methane sink activity of New Zealand's native and exotic forests. "Methanet" is a network through which New Zealand researchers and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry coordinate their methane inventory research.
Nitrous oxide emission inventories
Inventory research funded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry includes: extending the range of information and identifying the key processes controlling nitrous oxide emissions from hill-country pastures; effects of soil compaction on nitrous oxide emissions; measuring indirect nitrous oxide fluxes from agricultural streams; improved methods for determining nitrous oxide emissions from New Zealand soils; review of the emission rate from deposition of dung and urine onto pasture; paddock-scale comparison and validation of nitrous oxide prediction methods.
Other nitrous oxide inventory research includes developing a New Zealand version of the DNDC (de-nitrification and decomposition) model in collaboration with United States researchers, to enable scaling up to regional and national scale emissions. "NzOnet" (a network of researchers coordinated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry) provides coordination between New Zealand groups researching nitrous oxide emissions and inventories.
Mitigation of agricultural emissions
Most of this work is now undertaken through the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium. A particular focus is investigation of rumen microbial strategies to lower methane emissions. New information has been obtained on rumen factors that affect methanogen survival and which have potential for use in methane-abatement strategies. Investigation of forage plants to affect methane formation in the rumen continues as does research on levels of animal variation in the level of methane emitted. One of the early opportunities identified for methane-abatement, the "methane vaccine", has so far proved unsuccessful in New Zealand.
The consortium is also undertaking research on potential management practices to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. This includes linking with an industry trial to evaluate intensive dairy farm systems involving treatments with integration of nitrogen fertiliser, maize silage and winter management strategies. Potentially the integration of low protein forage (for example, maize), to reduce dietary-nitrogen concentration or winter management practices to reduce excreta to soil can mitigate environmental nitrogen emissions and increase efficiency.
Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) - inventories and mitigation research
Research on land-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide is summarised earlier in this chapter, under "land-atmosphere interactions". Research is being undertaken to improve inventory methods and models to estimate carbon in each of the five land use, land-use change, and forestry carbon pools. The emphasis of this work is with planted forests and their soils. Research is also under way on improving methods of using historic remotely-sensed information to develop land-use histories across New Zealand associated with regenerating native forest, planting of forest species, patchy shrub cover in pastoral hill country, and other land-use information. Research is continuing on radar remote sensing from aircraft (and eventually satellite) for estimating woody biomass, and on scanning LIDAR (Light Interception Detection and Ranging) to estimate tree heights and forest health. Research into barriers and opportunities for enhancing the area of forest sinks includes investigating indigenous reforestation as a land-use option to gain income from forest credits or provide opportunities for businesses to exhibit "carbon neutrality", and using the Kyoto Protocol as a mechanism to encourage more sustainable land use.
Research results are being used to improve various indigenous forest biomass data sets and forest inventory methods. These include biomass data sets and functions to predict live tree biomass and coarse woody debris decay rates. To improve Kyoto forest inventories and projections, exotic live and dead tree biomass data sets are being prepared, as are functions to predict live tree and coarse woody debris biomass. Forest and soil carbon model validation studies are under way.
Energy efficiency, renewables, mitigation of industrial emissions
Research on improving energy efficiency includes measuring energy use in homes; development and evaluation of energy-efficient designs and technologies for commercial buildings and homes; developing more energy-efficient technologies for industries including dairy, pulp and paper, and wood drying; and social science research on barriers to increased uptake of energy conservation in households and communities.
Renewable energy research projects include small renewable energy applications for rural Māori communities; developing and assessing socio-economic impacts of biomass energy including potential to provide carbon-sink revenue; biomass energy systems; distributable renewable energy systems and integrating them into existing energy supply infrastructure; advanced solar cell technology; research and development for geothermal, wind and wave energy technologies.
New Zealand scientists are also involved in an Australian cooperative research centre programme on carbon dioxide sequestration.
Transport
Research and development work to reduce net greenhouse gas contributions from transport includes behavioural influences on fuel use for household transport, systematic and individual barriers to more fuel-efficient travel and social impacts of reduced fuel use; optimising modes for transport of wood fibre; biodiesel from animal tallows; reducing transport-related energy use in the tourism sector; scenarios for urban sustainability; technology, knowledge and expertise necessary to underpin the introduction of a hydrogen infrastructure based on hydrogen from coal.
Research and development on adaptation
While research on climate change impacts has been a high priority for New Zealand, research, development and dissemination of methodologies for implementing adaptation measures to these impacts has also been a major focus of work. In May 2004, the Ministry for the Environment coordinated and published the report Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment, which is intended to serve as a guidance manual covering such methodologies for local government
Adaptation
Over the past four years considerable effort has gone into developing research-based information to help local government, farmers, the energy industry and other climate-sensitive sectors adapt to both natural climate variability and future climate change. Funders of this work include the Ministry for the Environment, the Foundation for Research Science and Technology, individual local authorities, and the insurance industry. The substantial impacts of a number of extreme meteorological events occurring over this period, such as the Manawatu floods in February 2004, have increased the demand for such information.
As part of developing adaptation guidance manuals for local government, researchers have developed new climate and sea-level scenarios for New Zealand based on the full range of IPCC global temperature projections for the coming century (mentioned earlier in this report); identified local and regional activities likely to be vulnerable to such changes; and developed risk assessment and management methodologies to address such impacts. Particular attention has been given to potential impacts of increases in high intensity rainfall, providing data which can be used for assessing stormwater drainage capabilities, and methodologies for identifying areas at risk of inundation.
Research is also under way on implications of climate variability and change (including interdecadal variability) and change for renewable energy (hydro, wind) generation, to help the energy industry plan for future changes. Research has also continued on seasonal climate forecasting, and on methodologies for mapping climate and soils (and potential climate changes) and using the results to identify appropriate areas for growing new niche crops or making other sustainable land-use changes.
Systematic observations
New Zealand has continued to build up an archive of systematic atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial observations based on the monitoring activities described in the first, second and third national communications. Details of these observations are tabulated in the Global Climate Observing System report provided separately to the UNFCCC (Ministry for the Environment, 2006).
Atmospheric observing systems
There are two prime sources of New Zealand atmospheric observations relevant to climate change: the routine surface and upper air weather observations undertaken by MetService, and dedicated climate observations and atmospheric constituent measurements undertaken by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. The Institute is assisted by many voluntary observers, especially for rainfall monitoring. MetService forwards its weather observations to the Institute, where they are archived in the National Climate Database along with the Institute's own measurements. MetService and the Institute both play particular attention to quality control. The Institute's climate monitoring and archiving programme carries ISO9002 certification, and MetService has ISO9001 certification.
Support
Funding for the core weather observations is from a Ministry of Transport contract to MetService, with some extra observations funded out of commercial revenue. Dedicated climate observations are funded by a contract to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research from the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology, which recognises the climate database as a "database of national importance". Support for the climate database and monitoring has recently been reviewed by the Foundation as part of its "advancement" process for global environmental processes and change research, and a new contract providing additional resources has been agreed. Atmospheric constituent measurements are also funded by the Foundation as part of specific research programmes.
National climate network
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research's plans for the national climate network include continuing with gradual automation as finances permit, and its staff regularly review the network in the light of user requirements. Planning for climate and atmospheric constituent measurements takes place as part of the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology proposal and contracting process. Particular attention is paid to continuity of the 25-station reference climate network.
Availability and exchange
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research has developed user-friendly web access to the National Climate Database, implementation on a subscription basis. The institute's staff answer data requests from both New Zealand and overseas. Arrangements and conditions for data provision are consistent with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Resolution 40(Cg-XII) on policy and practice for the exchange of meteorological and related data and products. Appropriate weather observations are forwarded to other countries by the MetService in real time, through WMO networks. New Zealand provides climate and greenhouse gas monitoring data to international data centres under the WMO/ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) programmes that comprise the Global Climate Observing System.
Weather and climate observations
New Zealand has nine stations providing data to international data centres as part of the Global Surface Network (GSN) of the Global Climate Observing System, and four stations which report as part of the Global Upper Air Network (GUAN). A total of 219 stations provide 9.00 a.m. climate observations to the National Climate Database, and 144 of these are automatic stations, which also provide information at other times of day. Of the 219 stations, the 144 automatic sites provide a sufficiently broad suite of climate measurements to be useful for national climate monitoring. There are currently 589 stations providing daily rainfall information into the database. In addition, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research maintains satellite data archives for the New Zealand region of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) satellites High Rate Picture Transmission (HRPT) data (1992-present), Global Geostationary Meteorological Satellite data products (August 1998-present) and SeaStar SeaWiFS HRPT data (May 2000-present).
Atmospheric constituents
New Zealand has two stations providing atmospheric constituent data to international data centres as part of the Global Atmospheric Watch. Concentrations and isotope ratios in carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as aerosol properties and non-methane hydrocarbons, are monitored at the Baring Head clean air monitoring station. Some of these gases are also monitored at two other sites, including one in the Antarctic. Surface ozone is monitored at seven stations (including one in Antarctica), column-integrated ozone concentrations are measured at two stations (including one in Antarctica), and a regular balloon-borne sampling programme for vertical profiles of ozone concentrations is operated at one station.
Ocean observing systems
There are 11 open-coast sea level monitoring gauges operating around the New Zealand coast, and 13 coastal stations at which sea surface temperatures are measured. In addition, 90-year tide gauge records are held for the ports of Auckland, Wellington, Lyttelton and Dunedin, and short records from several other ports. Since the 1980s, New Zealand has maintained a network of around seven drifting buoys in the Tasman Sea, and two sub-surface floats under the ARGO programme. In collaboration with Australian and United States research institutions, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research maintains three high resolution XBT (Expendable Bathythermograph) sections in the Tasman/Coral Sea area to monitor vertical ocean temperature profiles. Ocean waves are routinely monitored at five sites around the New Zealand coast. Remote coastal video cameras have been installed for long-term monitoring of beach conditions and erosion at seven sites. The Ministry of Fisheries contracts out regular surveys of various fish species, in order to set maximum allowable catch limits and quotas. The resulting data sets may also be relevant for assessing climate change impacts on fisheries.
Terrestrial observing systems
There are approximately 500 streamflow gauges in operation around New Zealand, and around 300 groundwater monitoring sites. End-of-summer snowline elevations and photographic images of 46 glaciers from special aircraft flights are available annually since 1979, and the terminus positions of key glaciers in the Southern Alps are available from 1800 to the present. A soil carbon monitoring system for New Zealand has been developed and is currently being enhanced to reduce uncertainties for some land-use changes. The national Land Cover Database, developed using SPOT satellite imagery in 1995, has been repeated for 2000/01 using Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery. Associated with the New Zealand Carbon Accounting System it is planned to complete a land use map for 1990. This 1990 mapping will use Landsat 4 satellite imagery as well as existing aerial photography. It is planned to be further updated in 2008. The National Vegetation Survey Databank (NVS) maintained by Landcare Research holds records from approximately 45,000 vegetation survey plots around New Zealand, including 12,000 permanent plots. In addition, Landcare Research maintains five New Zealand long-term ecological research and monitoring sites, and also monitors the presence or range of self-advective fungal and insect species. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry maintains a planted forest cover database, and keeps records of carbon absorbed in new planting and lost through logging, fires and vegetation clearance.
Observing, data and monitoring system support for developing countries
The Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService), under a New Zealand Government contract, provides general assistance to Kiribati, Tuvalu, Samoa, Tokelau, Tonga, Niue and the Cook Islands to assist those countries' weather and climate observing systems to run smoothly and maintain the quality of the observations. Targeted New Zealand Overseas Development Aid programmes have covered training in technical maintenance and observing practices in the Cook Islands, Tuvalu and the Tokelaus. MetService also administers the Meteorological Office, United Kingdom's Pacific Trust Fund which supports upper air observations (part of GUAN) at Tuvalu, Kiribati and Penrhyn, and provides technical support regarding the operation of these stations. A component of this support is also funded through MetService's Crown contract. In addition to operational funding, in collaboration with the Meteorological Office of the United Kingdom, a number of projects have been supported by the Pacific Fund and undertaken by MetService to upgrade existing infrastructure at these GUAN stations and at other locations. More are planned. MetService supplied and maintains a dual automatic weather station at Pitcairn Island funded through the Pacific Trust Fund. Support has now been extended under Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) funding and MetService has been contracted to supply additional support to the south-west Pacific under the PI-GCOS Technical Support Project. MetService has been further contracted by GCOS to undertake technical surveys of silent GUAN stations at Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, and to complete an upgrade of the GUAN station at Galapagos Islands, Ecuador.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research also assists meteorological services undertaking climate observations in the south-west Pacific, through informal advice when requested, by backing up climate records from many of the islands in the New Zealand climate database, and by providing data from this database to them when requested. The institute has run and partnered several training programmes supported by the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. These have included training staff from Pacific Island developing states with recovering historical data records and defining and coding meta-data. In 2004, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research supported a "training institute" at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji on "Extreme Weather Events". The training staff were drawn from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the East-West Centre in Hawaii, United States and from the University of the South Pacific in Suva, Fiji. The training modules developed for the training institute will be taken to individual communities in Samoa and to Kiribati in 2005. With the support of the New Zealand Agency for International Development through the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, NIWA scientists have worked with staff from various organisations in the Pacific Islands, Australia, United States and France to produce the monthly Island Climate Update, which summarises recent climatic conditions and provides climate outlooks for the next three months. The New Zealand Agency for International Development has also supported the training of staff from the Fijian Meteorological Service on climate database management and quality control at NIWA's National Climate Centre.
APacific Island GCOS (PI-GCOS) Committee was formed in 2000 with Pacific Island and regional representatives and New Zealand has been an active participant since its inception. This committee has developed a regional implementation plan with 36 discrete projects that will help the Pacific region contribute to the GCOS objectives. The development has involved a high degree of collaboration between the Pacific Island countries and donors and in particular New Zealand has supported initiatives to:
- restore and upgrade the regional upper-air networks
- produce a Pacific regional climate bulletin
- recover historical climate data
- assist with capacity building within the Pacific Island hydrological and meteorological services.
Concluding remarks
An assessment of the adequacy of the current research strategy and portfolio will be undertaken by the Ministry for the Environment in 2006. Subject to this assessment, a more complete review of the strategy may be initiated by the Government.
This chapter has focused on research explicitly directed at climate change issues. There is a range of other research being undertaken in New Zealand in areas with co-benefits to climate change issues and providing opportunities to mainstream climate change concerns into a broader context. These include, but are not limited to, sustainable energy, health, housing and transport.
