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16 Costs of a Proposed Structure

These costs are preliminary and reflect the views of the lead author of this task from Forest Research prior to the completion of the operations manuals.

16.1 Costs variations

The costs of the CMS will depend on:

  • the mandate of the CMS

  • the organisational structure employed and

  • the number of sample plots to be measured each year.

The following costs assume a 9 km grid sample scheme with the LCDB carried out every 5 years; first plot remeasurement interval of 5 years; and a long-term plot remeasurement of 10 years.

Costs are incurred under the following broad categories:

Staff

Field measurements and Quality control

  • Forest and shrub
  • Soils

Information technology and administration

Laboratory work and function coefficient estimation

Operational Research and Development (Non FRST)

16.2 Staff

Management (half time spent on duties other than operational CMS):

  • Technical manager
  • Operational supervisor.

Field measurement, 3 to 4 field crews employed on the CMS during the summer only:

  • 3–4 permanent staff, field crew leaders
  • 9–12 temporary field workers.

Database administrator (10%).

R&D and IT development, on contract as required.

Technical manager

Duties consist of managing the unit, external liaison, managing the technical components of the CMS system, coordinating ongoing development and research, ensuring standards are met, and analysing, reporting and promulgating results.  Tertiary, preferably post-graduate, qualifications.

Annual salary $65,000 x 2.35 overheads multiplier

Operational supervisor / executive officer.

Duties consist of managing the field programme, recruiting temporary staff, managing training, supervising quality control procedures, analysing data. Tertiary qualifications.

Annual salary $57,000 x 2.35 overheads multiplier, 135,000/year, half-time 65,000

3–4 permanent field technicians (crew leaders)

Permanent staff are responsible for leading a field crew and ensuring temporary crew members operate to the desired standards. They work on the CMS only over the summer measurement season. Note that the 50% loading of the operational work time for "down time" permits these staff to carry out other duties besides field measurements with a higher level of responsibility than the temporary staff. An annual salary of $ 40,000 to 45,000. Tertiary, technical qualifications.

9–12 field workers

Recruited each year, preferably returning over several years. Ideally, these should be tertiary educated, perhaps studying for post-graduate degrees in fields related to indigenous forest/shrub ecology. Major attributes are knowledge of NZ native flora (species recognition), physical fitness, a love of the outdoors, bush and tramping skills, accurate and careful measurement techniques.

All field technician costs are accounted for in the field measurement cost expressed on a plot measurement basis, below.

Data processing/Database administrator

Annual salary $30,000 to $ 35,000, but only 10% of a year (i.e. 4 to 5 full-time equivalent weeks) would be devoted to the CMS work. A permanent position, probably shared to allow backup, ideally carrying out these duties and administering one or more other similar databases. Duties include assisting in preparing data before a field crew's work, (e.g., downloading previous measurements of a plot to a field computer or to field sheets), processing data from the field, database error corrections, retrieval of data on request, preparation of data for analysis.

16.3 Direct costs per measured forest and shrub plot.

The field procedures have been designed so that one field crew of two to four staff could measure one plot in 1 day, on average, for those days spent measuring, excluding necessary "down time".

The costs of the forest plots and shrub plots are identical, as the work for either occupies a full day. The time saved on a shrub plot by not having to measure many tree stem diameters and heights is balanced by the additional work in collecting biomass samples. Similarly, the additional cost spent in establishing a new plot, laying out internal and external boundaries, and tagging stems, is balanced by time spent looking for and then refurbishing an existing plot.

The 62 plots in the South Island Transect exercise were measured by a field crew over a 3-month period in the summer of 1998/99, during the university vacation.

The crew managed 0.94 plots per weekday, on average, including time lost due to bad weather and to logistic requirements, but the season included a total of 11 days working at the weekend. A further 3 days were spent by the permanent staff in measuring 3 plots after the departure of the university students. As there was exceptionally good weather during that particular summer and only 7 days were lost due to inclement conditions, it is recommended that additional time, about 14 days, should be allowed for bad weather in a typical year.  Also, because the transect was close to Christchurch and the major highway of Arthur's Pass, the 7 days spent in preparation and road-travel relocating from one base to another (logistics) should also be doubled, under typical conditions, to 14.  A further 5 days is required at the start of the season for training when no plots are measured. This excludes training days where plots are measured.

In summary, to measure 62 plots in one season by one field crew would normally require

58 days spent measuring,

5 days training (non productive)

14 days relocation and preparation

14 days lost to inclement conditions.

TOTAL 91 days

AVERAGE 1.5 field crew days per plot

A field crew consists of 4 people, comprising:

1 field crew leader, experienced, permanent staff, ($43,000 / yr) $170 per day

3 field workers, temporary, ($13.75 /hr, 28,600 / yr), each person $110 per day

Direct cost of field crew wages (3 @ 110 + 170) $ 500 per day

Assume an indirect overheads multiplier of 2.35,

cost of field crew, excluding direct operating costs $1175 per day

Operating costs per day (average, from the SI transect exercise)

(Vehicle, Helicopter, accommodation, daily allowances, equipment and gear) $ 325 per day

TOTAL cost per day $1500

TOTAL cost per plot $2250

During a day spent measuring a plot, about half the time is used on accurately locating the plot and getting to it. Access, even over short distances, can be extremely difficult and time consuming. The time could be reduced by increasing helicopter use, but only at considerably more expense along with an increase in the risk of delays due to unsuitable weather for flying. About one-third of the time is spent at the plot on work and measurements necessary to estimate the amount of carbon per hectare.  Additional work, not strictly necessary for a carbon monitoring system but that provides essential and useful information for other stakeholders, takes about one-fifth of the time of a forest plot and less than one-tenth of the time of a shrub plot.

  % of time
Task Forest plots Shrub plots
Locating plots 50 49
Measurements for carbon 30 28
Destructive sampling for carbon composition - 13
"Extra" measurements 20  9

In total, non-core CMS work takes only about one-sixth of the field-work time. Given the integral nature of one plot in 1 working day, restricting the nature of the work to a carbon monitoring system alone would have marginal savings overall.

16.4 Soils monitoring costs – options

The principal ongoing costs of the soil CMS will be in strengthening the robustness of the system by ongoing soil sampling and analysis for:

  1. Soil carbon stocks per hectare, especially for those land uses for which only limited data are currently available (e.g., indigenous forest, scrub)

  2. Change in soil carbon over time as a consequence of land-use change.

Soil carbon stocks

To strengthen the existing soils data base, five climate/soils/land-cover cells need to be sampled at six sites each. Within a plot, four sites chosen objectively will be measured for bulk density, litter and percentage carbon composition. Soil sampling down to 1 m is estimated to require two people for 1 day, plus a further 33% contingency or "down time", resulting in a cost of $2100 per site, including labour, transport and accommodation costs, but excluding laboratory sample preparation and analysis. This work would be spread over 5 years.

Total cost over the first 5 years: $12,500 per year.

It is proposed that sampling for soil carbon, at least to a depth of 0.3 m, be carried out with the routine 20 x 20 m vegetation plot measurements in the indigenous forest and soils. The number of within-plot sites for soil sampling will be maintained to ensure the standard day's work is not exceeded. The costs for these are calculated above in the forest and shrub field operations.

Change in soil carbon over time

Repeated sampling over time will be carried out at permanently located sites paired to represent the key land-use changes of pasture to pine and pasture to shrub-land. Process-based models will increasingly be used to indicate the trajectories of these soil carbon changes over an appropriate time scale (e.g., 20 years), from which more accurate annual changes can be inferred. These model predictions will need to be confirmed for key land-use changes by remeasuring soil C using the benchmark research sites, where soil carbon measurements were made at the time of the land-use change.  Over the first 8 years of the CMS, 32 pairs of sites would be established over the first 8 years of the CMS, taking 10 days work at a cost of $23,000 per pair. Some sites would have to be abandoned through disturbance, resulting in additional cost of replacement, bringing the cost to $110,000 per year. A further $16,000 per year is required for reporting.

Total cost over the first five years: $126,000 per year.

16.5 IT development and support / on contract

Develop and maintain the operational data base, analysis and reporting system, integrated with a CMS GIS, that contains a copy of the LCDB. The costing assumes a new version of the system is developed every 10 years, requiring 2 to 3 FTE years (2.5 FTE). This development could cost $400,000 including interest, with costs spread over the 10-year period. However, most of the costs would be incurred within the first few years. The annual allowance of $50,000 would cover amortisation costs, system maintenance and database administrator costs, but exclude extraordinary costs incurred by web-based analysis and results system.

16.6 Laboratory analysis and estimation of function coefficients

Laboratory analysis costs are an essential part of the CMS, both for the forest and soils components, to determine carbon content of samples.  The development of better allometric functions to predict above-ground biomass is an ongoing requirement to remove systematic errors in the system. These services can be contracted.

16.7 Operational research and development

Costs will increase over those incurred strictly to meet an operational role if operational research into improving measurement, sampling and analysis techniques is to be funded within the CMS. This R&D can be carried out as part of the permanent staff's duties, or it can be contracted out. It would quite properly be additional to any PGSF funding from FRST, as it is specifically aimed at improving the efficiency of the CMS, a central government initiative. An allowance of $100,000 per year is sufficient for less than one full-time equivalent, and is the worthwhile minimum amount. Scandinavia and the USA have shown that the investment in operational R&D in this area is well targeted.

16.8 Summary of costs "Base Case" for a 9 km grid

In the first 5 years of operation, the total number of plots to be established is expected to be 1075, or 215 per year. A further 21 to 22 of the plots should be remeasured within the same season for quality control. In years 6 to 10, these plots are to be remeasured, so that by 2012, an estimate of the change in forest and shrub composition and carbon stocks can be obtained. The annual direct field measurement cost at $2250 per plot totals $480,000, with a further $50,000 allowed for QC.

Technical manager (half time) 75,000
Operational supervisor (half time) 65,000
Field measurements–forest and shrub plots 480,000
Quality control and assurance 50,000
Soils 138,000
Database administration, IT development annualised 50,000
Laboratory costs 10,000
Estimation of coefficients, allometric functions for trees, larger shrubs 50,000
Operational R&D 100,000
CMS subtotal 1,018,000
Land Cover Data Base annualised 600,000
TOTAL per year $1,618,000

6.9 Cost variations

An alternative model is to locate the unit in a department where it is necessary to employ the technical manager and operational supervisor full time on the CMS, with correspondingly less chances of allocating alternative work to the permanent field-crew leaders. This would increase costs by $ 140,000 to $200,00 per year over those stipulated above. The cost for the CMS sub-total would rise to between $1,176,000 and $1,236,000 per year.

Savings could be achieved through substantially reducing the amount of work in the soils monitoring system by deferring research into the nature of change of soil carbon composition as land-cover changes, which is carried out using 64 long-term paired and benchmark sites at a cost of $126,000. Operational R&D at $100,000 could also be curtailed, with combined savings of $226,000.

The development of the IT systems could be postponed until after the second financial year, but postponement much beyond that time would greatly increase the risk of data loss or corruption.  It is also possible to extend the first round of measurements from 5 to 10 years, saving a further $270,000 (including corresponding reductions in QC and laboratory costs). Thus the cost for the CMS subtotal could be as low as $480,000 for the first and second years of operation.

A less risky cost reduction would be to envisage the first year as a start-up operation, but measuring the full complement of plots on the 5-year cycle, with a cost of $720,000 for the year. In the second year, a commitment would be made to the IT database development, with a less severe reduction in the soils monitoring and operational research programmes.

Note that the IT development would incur a cost of $350,000 to 400,000 perhaps spread over 2 financial years. There would be no need to incur costs of this magnitude for a further 8 years or so. Similarly, once all plots had received one remeasurement, after 10 years the remeasurement interval could increase to 10 years, thus halving the annual field costs. Alternatively, the field costs could remain the same but more plots could be established at new sample points.

The costs discussed so far are significantly less than those incurred by other countries. It is predicted that as the usefulness and value of the data are appreciated, and international agreements become more demanding, the intensity of sampling will increase not diminish. This will almost certainly result in more plots being established, either by establishing plots in specific regions or areas of high interest using a supplementary grid or sampling scheme, or by adding a second grid across the whole country. Decreasing the grid size at the outset would solve many problems. A grid of 5 km square would be similar to the density of plot clusters employed in the new USA FIA. The number of forest and shrub plots would be expected to increase to about 3560. Not all costs would rise proportionally, and it is estimated that such an intensity of measurement could be achieved for a CMS costing perhaps $2.25 million per year, plus the annualised LCDB cost.

 

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