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Questions and Answers on New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2008

Section 1 – Background to the inventory

1. What is the greenhouse gas inventory?

The inventory is an annual account of all human-induced emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand. The inventory is produced each year as part of New Zealand’s obligations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the Climate Change Convention) and the Kyoto Protocol.

2. Why is the data in the inventory only reported to the end of 2008 when it is now 2010?

The international reporting guidelines govern what the inventory covers and when it is submitted. The inventory year is 15 months behind the current calendar year to give time for countries to collect data and prepare the inventory, i.e. the 2008 inventory published in April 2010 contains data from 1990 to 2008 inclusive. All developed countries report using the same international guidelines.

3. What sectors are covered in the inventory?

The inventory reports greenhouse gas emissions and removals from six sectors:

• agriculture
• energy (including transport)
• industrial processes
• land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
• waste and
• solvent and other product use.

Under the Climate Change Convention, the inventory reports emissions and removals from the entire land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, while under the Kyoto Protocol, reporting is limited to the activities of afforestation, reforestation and deforestation. Please refer to Question 24 for more information on the difference between reporting forestry under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.
The composition of the sectors are defined by international reporting guidelines.

4. What gases are covered in the inventory?

The inventory totals emissions from six direct greenhouse gases:

• carbon dioxide (CO₂)
• methane (CH₄)
• nitrous oxide (N₂O)
• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
• perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and
• sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆).

Only emissions and removals of these six direct greenhouse gases are reported in the national greenhouse gas total.

The inventory also reports indirect greenhouse gases but they are not included in New Zealand's greenhouse gas total. The indirect gases are:

• oxides of nitrogen (NO_x)
• sulphur dioxide (SO₂)
• carbon monoxide (CO) and
• non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)

5. Who is responsible for the New Zealand inventory?

A prime ministerial directive for the administration of the Climate Change Response Act (2002, updated 8 December 2009) names the Ministry for the Environment as the “Inventory Agency”. The Ministry for the Environment is responsible for submitting the greenhouse gas inventory under the Climate Change Convention every year by 15 April. The Ministry for the Environment is also New Zealand’s designated single national entity for the greenhouse gas inventory under the Kyoto Protocol.

The Ministry for the Environment works closely with the Ministry of Economic Development and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to compile the emissions data. Many of the values used in the inventory are derived from data collated by Statistics New Zealand.

6. What is the uncertainty in the national inventory? Isn't there high uncertainty around agriculture emissions?

For New Zealand, the uncertainty in total emissions (excluding removals) for the 2008 calendar year is ± 12.9 per cent.  However, uncertainty in the trend in emissions since 1990 is only ±4.1 per cent, because the uncertainty in emissions factors in any one year cancels out over time.  It is the trend in emissions that is paramount to the requirements under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

The international guidance notes that uncertainty estimates are an essential element of a complete greenhouse gas emissions and removals inventory. The purpose of uncertainty information is not to dispute the validity of the inventory estimates, but to help prioritise efforts to improve the accuracy of inventories in the future and guide decisions on methodologies. Inventories prepared following the good practice guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will typically contain a wide range of emission estimates. These will vary from carefully measured and demonstrably complete data to highly variable estimates such as nitrous oxide emissions from soils.

7. Is the inventory accurate?

The New Zealand inventory works under the definitions of IPCC good practice. The inventory is reviewed annually against the criteria of being:

• transparent – assumptions and methodologies used for an inventory should be clearly explained to facilitate replication and assessment of the inventory by users of the reported information. The transparency of inventories is fundamental to the success of the process for the communication and consideration of information.
• accurate - Estimates should be accurate in the sense that they are systemically neither over nor under true emissions or removals, as far as can be judged, and that uncertainties are reduced as far as practicable
• complete – the inventory covers all  sources and sinks, as well as gases, included in the IPCC Guidelines as well as other existing relevant source/sink categories which are specific to individual Annex I Parties and, therefore may not be included in the IPCC Guidelines. Completeness also means full geographic coverage of sources and sinks.  
• consistent – the inventory should be internally consistent in all its elements with inventories of other years. An inventory is consistent if the same methodologies are used for the base and all subsequent years and if consistent data sets are used to estimate emissions or removals from sources or sinks. Under certain circumstances an inventory using different methodologies for different years can be considered to be consistent if it has been recalculated in a transparent manner, in accordance with the IPCC Guidance.
• comparable -   estimates of emissions and removals reported in inventories should be comparable among Annex I Parties. For this purpose, Annex I Parties should use the methodologies and formats agreed by the Conference by the Parties for estimating and reporting inventories. The allocation of different source/sink categories should follow the split of the IPCC Guidelines.

8. Is the inventory reviewed against “international best practice”?

The greenhouse gas inventory is reviewed annually by a team of international experts. The review team is selected from a roster of experts managed by the Secretariat to the Climate Change Convention. Most of the reviews are conducted in Bonn, Germany, but every 3 to 4 years, the review team will come to New Zealand for one week for an intense, in-country review. The last in-country review for New Zealand was in February 2007.

The review reports are completely transparent and are available for anyone to download from the Climate Change Convention website (www.unfcccc.int). 
New Zealand’s 2008 inventory submission (1990-2006) was assessed through a centralised review in Bonn in September 2008. The main conclusions were:

• The inventory has been prepared generally in line with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (hereinafter referred to as the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines), the IPCC good practice guidance and the IPCC good practice guidance for LULUCF.  
• The 2008 inventory submission is of a high quality and shows significant improvement in the major issues such as quality control and quality assurance (QA/QC) (in particular, the development of a risk register for the greenhouse gas inventory) and institutional arrangements compared with the 2007 submission. 

9. What would happen if New Zealand was judged to use a low or unsupported emissions factor?

Under the Climate Change Convention and Kyoto Protocol review process New Zealand would be encouraged to change the emission factor. However, under the Kyoto Protocol,  the review team has the mandate to recommend an adjustment to the emissions or removals to ensure a country is not under-estimating emissions or over-estimating removals. The compliance committee of the Kyoto Protocol would decide whether to apply the adjustment.

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Section 2 – Latest information on emissions and removals from the 1990-2008 inventory

10. What are the latest figures?

Total emissions in 2008 were 74.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂-e). Total emissions are emissions from energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture and waste. Total emissions exclude emissions and removals from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector.

New Zealand’s total emissions have increased by 13.9 Mt CO₂-e (22.8 per cent) over the 1990 value of 60.8 Mt (Figure 1).

In 2008 net removals from the whole LULUCF sector were -26.2 Mt CO₂-e. This was a decrease in net removals of 4.9 Mt CO₂-e (15.7 per cent) since the 1990 level of -31.1 Mt CO₂-e.

In 2008 the net removals from Article 3.3 Activities under the Kyoto Protocol were -14.4 Mt CO₂-e.

The differences between the reporting of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change Convention are explained in Question 24.

Figure 1: New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2008

Read a description of this figure

	Total emissions (excluding LULUCF) Mt CO2 equivalent
1990	60.8
1991	61.1
1992	62.3
1993	61.7
1994	62.5
1995	62.5
1996	63.7
1997	66.4
1998	64.3
1999	66.1
2000	69.6
2001	72.2
2002	72.7
2003	75.5
2004	74.8
2005	76.7
2006	77.0
2007	74.7
2008	74.7

11. What sectors contribute to total emissions?

The agriculture sector was the largest source of emissions, contributing 34.8 Mt CO₂-e in 2008. Agriculture contributed 46.6 per cent to New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 (methane and nitrous oxide).

The energy sector (including electricity and transport) contributed 33.8 Mt CO₂-e in 2008. Energy was 45.3 per cent of total emissions (mainly carbon dioxide, but also some nitrous oxide and methane).

Emissions from the industrial processes, waste and solvent sectors are a small component of New Zealand's inventory comprising 4.3 CO₂-e Mt (5.7 per cent), 1.7 Mt CO₂-e (2.2 per cent) and 0.03 Mt CO₂-e (0.04 per cent) in 2008 respectively.

12. Why have New Zealand's total emissions increased since 1990?

There are a number of reasons for the increase in our total emissions. These include an increase in the number of cars and trucks on the road, an increase in electricity generated using fossil fuels and an increase in agricultural productivity in all main areas of agriculture including dairy, sheep, beef and deer. Some key categories showing absolute and percentage changes since 1990 are shown in the table 1.

Table 2: Change in emissions for four of New Zealand’s key categories from 1990 to 2008 in Mt CO₂-e

Note for table: Under Climate Change Convention and Kyoto Protocol reporting nitrous oxide emissions are not separated by livestock type.

The demand for electricity has been met primarily by increasing fossil fuel based thermal generation (such as coal and gas fired electricity generation plants) rather than renewable energy sources such as hydro and wind. Thermal generation has increased since 1990 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: New Zealand’s renewable and thermal electricity generation from 1990 to 2008

Read a description of this figure

Year	Thermal (GWh)	Total renewable (GWh)
1990	6,114	25,432
1991	7,147	25,311
1992	8,474	23,505
1993	7,403	25,998
1994	5,905	28,180
1995	5,413	29,808
1996	7,075	28,415
1997	10,530	25,621
1998	8,324	28,019
1999	10,763	25,873
2000	10,475	27,615
2001	13,599	24,742
2002	11,578	27,797
2003	12,956	26,495
2004	11,169	30,084
2005	14,347	27,153
2006	14,472	27,644
2007	14,077	28,201
2008	14,626	27,619

13. Why have emissions decreased between 2007 and 2008?

Between 2007 and 2008 total emissions decreased by 0.1 Mt CO₂-e (0.1 per cent). This decrease is largely due to the widespread drought in 2008 that decreased livestock numbers in agriculture.

14. Does this year’s data show that emissions growth is slowing?

A trend in decreasing emissions growth cannot be deduced from one year’s data. New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions fluctuate significantly year on year due to factors like droughts and the proportion of renewable energy used to produce electricity, particularly hydro-electricity generation. Total emissions also decreased between 1992 and 1993, 1997 and 1998, 2003 and 2004, and between 2006 and 2007.

The decrease in emissions from 2007 to 2008 was 0.1 per cent. Between 1990 and 2008, the average annual growth in overall emissions was 1.3 per cent per year.

15. Why does the reported inventory total exclude removals from forestry?

The Climate Change Convention separates emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector from a Party’s national total. All inventories under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol report emissions excluding the LULUCF sector when making reference to total emissions.

16. What were the net removals in 2008?

In 2008 net removals from Article 3.3 activities under the Kyoto Protocol were -14.4 Mt CO₂-e.
In 2008 net removals from the whole LULUCF sector were -26.2 Mt CO₂-e. Net removals have decreased 4.9 Mt CO₂-e (15.7 per cent) since 1990.

Please refer to Question 24 for more information on the difference between reporting forestry under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

17. What were deforestation emissions under Article 3.3 Kyoto Protocol activities in 2008?

In 2008, deforestation emissions were 2.9 Mt CO₂-e. This is based on a deforested area of 4,818 hectares. This is a decrease from the 18,151 hectares of deforestation of all forests in 2007 which resulted in emissions of 13.1 Mt CO₂.

18. Why are deforestation estimates different between the inventory and the National Exotic Forest Description?

The deforestation estimate reported in the inventory for 2008 includes deforestation of all types of forest (pre-1990 planted forest, post-1989 forest and natural forest), is for the 2008 calendar year, and is based on the 2008 Deforestation Intentions Survey and LUCAS land-use mapping. The 2008 deforestation estimates in the 2009 National Exotic Forest Description are for the year ending 31 March 2008, and are compiled using a combination of responses to the 2008 National Exotic Forest Description survey and input from forestry experts. The differences between the inventory and National Exotic Forest Description estimates of planted forest deforestation are the result of the different time periods and data sources. The National Exotic Forest Description estimates do not include natural forest deforestation.

Table 3: Reasons for the differences between reported deforestation values for 2008

19. Why have historic emissions data changed since the last inventory submission?

The inventory is under continuous improvement. As better data, emission factors or methodologies are available, emissions are back-calculated throughout the time-series to reflect these improvements. This is a requirement of the inventory meeting the IPCC criteria of being consistent through time.

The difference in emissions between the 2010 and 2009 inventory submissions is 1.7 per cent in 1990 and 1.1 per cent for 2007. The major recalculations were:

Agriculture

• Regional data is now used for calculating emissions from dairy cattle.

Energy

• Updated emission factors and assumptions and the inclusion of new activity data within various categories.

Industrial Processes

• Updated emission factors and assumptions and the inclusion of new activity data within various categories.

LULUCF

• Inclusion of data from the Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) has provided improved New Zealand-specific methods, activity data and emission factors.

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Section 3 – The inventory and the Kyoto Protocol

20. How does the inventory link with the Kyoto Protocol?

The inventory is under the Climate Change Convention, i.e. all developed countries, including the USA, are required to produce an annual inventory. Countries that are also Party to the Kyoto Protocol are now required to include additional information in the inventory on matters related to the Kyoto Protocol, e.g. transfer of units from the registry, accounting for forest sinks.

21. How “good” is New Zealand’s inventory in meeting the Kyoto Protocol requirements?

New Zealand has consistently met the reporting requirements under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

The submission of the inventory to the Climate Change Convention secretariat is consistently within the allocated six weeks of April 15th as required under decision 15/CMP.1.

The national system for the greenhouse gas inventory, the national registry, and the 1990 (base year) greenhouse gas inventory were reviewed by an expert review team in February 2007. The expert review report concluded that:

• “New Zealand’s greenhouse gas inventory is consistent with the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines and the IPCC good practice guidance, and adheres to the reporting guidelines under Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol”

• “New Zealand’s national system is prepared in accordance with the guidelines for national systems under Article 5, paragraph 1, of the Kyoto Protocol and reported in accordance with the guidelines for the preparation of the information required under Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol”

• “New Zealand’s national registry is fully compliant with the registry requirements as defined by decisions 13/CMP.1 and 5/CMP.1”.

• These significant developments allowed New Zealand to be one of the first four Parties to be eligible to participate in the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. New Zealand’s registry was operational on January 1, 2008.

22. Given the upward overall trend in emissions will New Zealand still be able to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitment?

New Zealand is working towards meeting our commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. However, like many other countries, New Zealand recognises that reducing emissions is not an easy or straightforward task.

The collective goal of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce the aggregate emissions of the six greenhouse gases from developed countries by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the first commitment period (2008-2012).

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have individual targets. New Zealand’s target is for average annual emissions over 2008-2012 to be equal to emissions in 1990. The Kyoto Protocol recognises that reducing global greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be achieved by reducing the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted or removing carbon dioxide presently in the atmosphere by increasing and maintaining carbon sinks (for example, managing forests).  Countries can also use least-cost methods to achieve emissions reductions by using the “flexibility mechanisms” (e.g. carbon trading) provided through the Kyoto Protocol.

It is incorrect to say that increasing emissions shows New Zealand will fail to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol as this view fails to account for the use of forest sinks and the flexibility mechanisms in meeting New Zealand’s commitment.

23. Why can the reported emissions for 1990 change in the inventory when Kyoto units (based on 1990 emissions) have already been assigned?
or
Why does the 1990 year get recalculated each time? Shouldn’t that figure remain constant now we are in the first commitment period?

This is where there is a clear separation between Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change Convention reporting.

For the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand’s assigned amount is the gross greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 multiplied by 5. The assigned amount is based on the 1990 inventory submitted as part of the Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol and reviewed by an international review team in February 2007. The assigned amount does not change during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

In contrast, emissions and removals for all years of the inventory are subject to change due to continuous improvement. Consequently, the level of total emissions in 1990 reported in 2008 inventory submission is different (1.8 per cent) from the 1990 level used in the initial assigned amount calculation.

All countries face this issue, and accept that although the 1990 assigned amounts are fixed, inventories are required to continue to improve.

24. Are the planted forests in the LULUCF sector our Kyoto sinks?

The LULUCF sector of the inventory is not the same as forest sinks or afforestation under the Kyoto Protocol.  The inventory reports emissions and removals from all forests (planted and natural) for all years, whereas under the Kyoto Protocol is limited to only new forest (after 31 December 1989) and any deforestation over the first commitment period.

25. What is the difference between the Net Position Report and the Greenhouse Gas Inventory report – why do we need two reports?

The greenhouse gas inventory report is the official annual report of human-caused emissions and removals of greenhouse gases in New Zealand. The 2010 inventory submission covers emissions and removals from 1990 through to 2008. The greenhouse gas inventory measures New Zealand’s progress against New Zealand’s obligations under the Climate Change Convention and under the Kyoto Protocol.

The net position report provides a projection of New Zealand’s likely balance of Kyoto Protocol emissions units at the end of the first commitment period (CP1: 2008-2012). An emissions unit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide gas. The report is written on an annual basis to keep the Government informed of New Zealand’s progress towards achieving its Kyoto Protocol obligations.

Whether New Zealand will be in deficit or credit in relation to its Kyoto commitment will not be known until 2015 when the final greenhouse gas inventory for the first commitment period is submitted and reviewed by an international review team.

26. Does New Zealand report Article 3.4 activities under the Kyoto Protocol?

The accounting of Article 3.4 activities under the Kyoto Protocol is optional. New Zealand has elected to not account for any of optional activities under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol for the first commitment period i.e. forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and re-vegetation.

27. When will New Zealand account for Article 3.3 activities under the Kyoto Protocol?

New Zealand’s intention is to account for Article 3.3 activities at the end of the first commitment period.

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