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Annex 7: Uncertainty analysis (Table 6.1 of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance)

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Table A7.1 The uncertainty calculation (including LULUCF removals) for New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007 (IPCC Tier 1)

IPCC source category Gas Base year emissions or absolute value of removals  Year t emissions or absolute value of removals Activity data uncertainty Emission or removal factor uncertainty Combined uncertainty Combined uncertainty as a per cent of the national total in year t  Type A sensitivity Type B sensitvity Uncertainty in the trend in national total introduced by emission or removal factor uncertainty Uncertainty in trend in national total introduced by activity data uncertainty Uncertainty introduced into the trend in the national total
Energy sector CO2 22,593.0 31,559.9 5 0 5.0 1.6 0.0426 0.3861 0.0000 2.7301 2.7
Industrial processes sector  CO2 2,731.6 3,670.6 5 0 5.0 0.2 0.0034 0.0449 0.0000 0.3175 0.3
LULUCF sector - forest land CO2 18,673.8 24,565.2 5 25 25.5 6.2 0.0167 0.3005 0.4171 2.1250 2.2
LULUCF sector  other land use categories CO2 1,160.3 1,353.7 15 184 184.6 2.5 -0.0011 0.0166 -0.1976 0.3513 0.4
CRF6C - waste incineration CO2 12.9 0.9 10 40 41.2 0.0 -0.0002 0.0000 -0.0074 0.0002 0.0
Energy sector  CH4 716.4 831.9 5 50 50.2 0.4 -0.0007 0.0102 -0.0355 0.0720 0.1
CRF2A - mineral products CH4 0.0 0.0  
CRF2B - chemical industry CH4 20.2 18.3 0 80 80.0 0.0 -0.0001 0.0002 -0.0066 0.0000 0.0
CRF4A - enteric fermentation CH4 21,819.0 23,326.4 2 53 53.0 12.2 -0.0461 0.2854 -2.4438 0.8071 2.6
CRF4B - manure management CH4 578.7 729.1 2 100 100.0 0.7 0.0001 0.0089 0.0125 0.0252 0.0
CRF4E- prescribed burning CH4 2.7 0.9 20 60 63.2 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0019 0.0003 0.0
CRF4F - burning of residues CH4 21.4 13.2 50 40 64.0 0.0 -0.0002 0.0002 -0.0066 0.0114 0.0
LULUCF sector CH4 49.9 62.1 10 35 36.4 0.0 0.0000 0.0008 0.0001 0.0107 0.0
CRF 6A - solid waste disposal CH4 2,063.2 1,438.0 0 20 20.0 0.3 -0.0138 0.0176 -0.2752 0.0000 0.3
CRF 6B - wastewater handling CH4 207.0 202.5 0 20 20.0 0.0 -0.0007 0.0025 -0.0134 0.0000 0.0
CRF6C - waste incineration CH4 0.0 0.0 10 100 100.5 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0
Energy sector  N2O 143.4 261.3 5 50 50.2 0.1 0.0010 0.0032 0.0509 0.0226 0.1
Solvents - N2O use N2O 41.5 43.4 10 0 10.0 0.0 -0.0001 0.0005 0.0000 0.0075 0.0
CRF4D - agricultural soils N2O 10,043.4 12,298.1 5 73 73.2 8.9 -0.0022 0.1504 -0.1595 1.0638 1.1
CRF4B - manure management N2O 38.0 58.0 5 100 100.1 0.1 0.0001 0.0007 0.0131 0.0050 0.0
CRF4E - prescribed burning N2O 0.5 0.2 20 60 63.2 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0003 0.0001 0.0
CRF4F - burning of residues N2O 7.4 4.3 50 40 64.0 0.0 -0.0001 0.0001 -0.0024 0.0037 0.0
LULUCF sector  N2O 5.7 17.0 10 35 36.4 0.0 0.0001 0.0002 0.0043 0.0029 0.0
CRF6B - wastewater handling N2O 153.5 179.2 0 1200 1200.0 2.1 -0.0001 0.0022 -0.1683 0.0000 0.2
CRF6C - waste incineration N2O 1.6 1.2 10 100 100.5 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0010 0.0002 0.0
CRF2F HFCs 0.0 856.6 24 0 24.0 0.2 0.0105 0.0105 0.0000 0.3557 0.4
CRF2C PFCs 642.2 41.7 0 30 30.0 0.0 -0.0092 0.0005 -0.2775 0.0000 0.3
CRF2F SF6 15.2 14.7 5 20 20.6 0.0 -0.0001 0.0002 -0.0010 0.0013 0.0
     
Total emissions/removals   81,742.5 101,548.2   Uncertainty in the year 16.7%   Uncertainty in the trend 4.5%

assumptions as per IPCC GPG

  1. where only total uncertainty is known for a source category then the following rules have been used.
    1. if uncertainity is assumed to be correlated across years, then total uncertainty is entered as emission factor uncertainty 
    2. if uncertainty is assumed not to be correlated across years, then the total uncertainty is entered as activity data uncertainty 
  2. Column K: The same emission factor is used in both years and the emission factors are fully correlated.  
  3. Column L: The activity data in both years is assumed independent (not correlated).

Note that the total shown will not equal the gross or net totals reported in the CRF/NIR as not every source is specified in the uncertainty analysis

 

Table A7.2 The uncertainty calculation (excluding LULUCF removals) for New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2007 (IPCC Tier 1)

IPCC source category Gas Base year emissions   Year t emissions Activity data uncertainty Emission factor uncertainty Combined uncertainty Combined uncertainty as a % of the total emissions in year t  Type A sensitivity Type B sensitvity Uncertainty in the trend in national totals introduced by emission factor uncertainty Uncertainty in trend in national total introduced by activity data uncertainty Uncertainty introduced into the trend in total emissions
Energy sector CO2 22,593.0 31,559.9 5 0 5 2.1 0.0637 0.5098 0.0000 3.6047 3.6
Industrial processes sector  CO2 2,731.6 3,670.6 5 0 5 0.2 0.0054 0.0593 0.0000 0.4193 0.4
CRF6C - waste incineration CO2 12.9 0.9 10 40 41 0.0 -0.0002 0.0000 -0.0096 0.0002 0.0
Energy sector  CH4 716.4 831.9 5 50 50 0.6 -0.0007 0.0134 -0.0350 0.0950 0.1
CRF2A - mineral products CH4 0.0 0.0  
CRF2B - chemical industry CH4 20.2 18.3 0 80 80 0.0 -0.0001 0.0003 -0.0082 0.0000 0.0
CRF4A - enteric fermentation CH4 21,819.0 23,326.4 2 53 53 16.4 -0.0536 0.3768 -2.8394 1.0657 3.0
CRF4B - manure management CH4 578.7 729.1 2 100 100 1.0 0.0004 0.0118 0.0358 0.0333 0.0
CRF4E - prescribed burning CH4 2.7 0.9 20 60 63 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0024 0.0004 0.0
CRF4F - burning of residues CH4 21.4 13.2 50 40 64 0.0 -0.0002 0.0002 -0.0084 0.0150 0.0
LULUCF sector CH4 49.9 62.1 10 35 36 0.0 0.0000 0.0010 0.0007 0.0142 0.0
CRF 6A - solid waste disposal CH4 2,063.2 1,438.0 0 20 20 0.4 -0.0175 0.0232 -0.3496 0.0000 0.3
CRF 6B - wastewater handling CH4 207.0 202.5 0 20 20 0.1 -0.0008 0.0033 -0.0163 0.0000 0.0
CRF6C - waste incineration CH4 0.0 0.0 10 100 100 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0
Energy sector  N2O 143.4 261.3 5 50 50 0.2 0.0014 0.0042 0.0695 0.0298 0.1
Solvents - N2O use N2O 41.5 43.4 10 0 10 0.0 -0.0001 0.0007 0.0000 0.0099 0.0
CRF4D - agricultural soils N2O 10,043.4 12,298.1 5 73 73 11.9 0.0005 0.1986 0.0338 1.4047 1.4
CRF4B - manure management N2O 38.0 58.0 5 100 100 0.1 0.0002 0.0009 0.0185 0.0066 0.0
CRF4E- prescribed burning N2O 0.5 0.2 20 60 63 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0004 0.0001 0.0
CRF4F - burning of residues N2O 7.4 4.3 50 40 64 0.0 -0.0001 0.0001 -0.0030 0.0049 0.0
LULUCF sector  N2O 5.7 17.0 10 35 36 0.0 0.0002 0.0003 0.0057 0.0039 0.0
CRF6B - wastewater handling N2O 153.5 179.2 0 1200 1200 2.8 -0.0001 0.0029 -0.1607 0.0000 0.2
CRF6C - waste incineration N2O 1.6 1.2 10 100 100 0.0 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0012 0.0003 0.0
CRF2F HFCs 0.0 856.6 120 50 130 1.5 0.0138 0.0138 0.6919 2.3482 2.4
CRF2C PFCs 642.2 41.7 0 30 30 0.0 -0.0120 0.0007 -0.3600 0.0000 0.4
CRF2F SF6 15.2 14.7 5 20 21 0.0 -0.0001 0.0002 -0.0013 0.0017 0.0
     
Total emissions/removals   61,908.4 75,629.3   Uncertainty in the year 20.6%   Uncertainty in the trend 5.5%

 

assumptions as per IPCC GPG

  1. where only total uncertainty is known for a source category then the following rules have been used.
    1. if uncertainity is assumed to be correlated across years, then total uncertainty is entered as emission factor uncertainty 
    2. if uncertainty is assumed not to be correlated across years, then the total uncertainty is entered as activity data uncertainty 
  2. Column K: The same emission factor is used in both years and the emission factors are fully correlated.  
  3. Column L: The activity data in both years is assumed independent (not correlated).

Note that the total emissions shown will not equal the total reported in the CRF/NIR as not every source is specified in the uncertainty analysis

 

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