Figure A3.12: Effect on return period of extreme daily winter rainfall at Auckland, for an increase in the beta parameter of the gamma distribution, but no change in the alpha parameter
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Note: Comparing the present climate (blue line) with the extreme change at 2100 (red line), as inferred from the gamma distributions changes of Semenov and Bengtsson (2002). The dotted lines shows how the 50-year return period under the present climate, associated with a rainfall amount of about 72 mm, changes to a return period of about seven years for this worst case scenario.
Text description of figure
The effect on return periods from extreme values analysis of maximum daily winter rainfall for the present climate (lower line) and for a climate at 2100 with a 40 percent increase in the beta parameter but with no change in the shape parameter is demonstrated in this figure. Both lines show increasing rainfall amounts with increasing return periods. A daily rainfall with a return period of 50 years under the present climate would have a return period of about seven years at 2100.
