Figure A2.1: Global mean temperature change for six illustrative SRES scenarios (plus one IS92 scenario) using the MAGICC model tuned to seven AOGCMs
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Note: Lines are the ensemble average. The coloured bars to the right show the range of MAGICC results at 2100 for the seven AOGCM tunings for each illustrative SRES scenario. The dark shading represents the envelope of the MAGICC ensemble averages across the full set of 35 SRES scenarios. The light shading represents the envelope of all MAGICC results across all 35 SRES scenarios.
Source: Figure is variant of Figure 9.14 (page 555) from IPCC Third Assessment (Cubasch et al 2001).
Text description of figure
Time series of global mean temperature projections from 1990 to 2100 for six SRES scenarios and one IS92 scenario, using the MAGICC model tuned (separately) to seven atmosphere-ocean global circulation models. Bars to the right of the diagram show, for each of 6 SRES scenarios, the range of variation in the results from MAGICC for the seven climate models. For each scenario, the average temperature increase, in degrees Celsius, relative to 1990, together with the extent of their variation are as follows: A1B, 2.9 degrees plus or minus 0.9 degrees; A1T, 2.5 degrees plus or minus 0.8 degrees; A1Fl, 4.5 degrees plus or minus 1.1 degrees; A2, 3.8 degrees plus or minus 0.9 degrees; B1, 2.0 degrees plus or minus 0.6 degrees; B2, 2.7 degrees plus minus 0.7 degrees; IS92a, 2.4 degrees, no variation given. An envelope of the results across all 35 SRES scenarios displays projected temperature changes at 2100 to be between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius higher than in 1990.
