Figure 2.8: Projected changes between 1990 and 2100 in the number of days below freezing (upper two panels), and the number of days above 25°C (lower two panels)
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Note: For the Hadley GCM pattern, applied to the SRES B1 low sensitivity scenario (left panels) and SRES A2 high sensitivity scenarios (right panels), as calculated by the CLIMPACTS system (reproduced from Mullan et al 2001b).
Text description of figure
The figure highlights the projected changes between 1990 and 2100 in the number of days per year below freezing, and the number of days per year above 25 degrees Celsius. The results are inferred from the Hadley GCM, and contrast the B1 (low emission) SRES scenario and low climate sensitivity with the A2 (high emission) SRES scenario and high climate sensitivity. There are large decreases in frost occurrence in the lower South Island: 10 days for the B1 Low sensitivity case, and 30 days for the A2 High sensitivity case. In Northland, only a small reduction in frosts is possible, since it is already too warm for frosts most years. In the lower South Island the 2100 changes could reduce the number of frosts by 50 percent or more. There are increases in the number of days above 25 degrees Celsius: for B1 Low case, the increases range from 15 more days in Northland to only 1 more day in Otago; for A2 High case, the increases range from over 60 days in Northland to 5 days in Otago. The changes in warm days could double the number of days per year above 25 degrees Celsius for warmer parts of the North Island.
