Figure ES1: Predicted average recurrence interval (years) in the 2080s under the 'low-medium' climate scenario, for the driest annual conditions that currently occur on average once every 20 years

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The measure used is the PED (Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit) accumulated over a growing year (July to June). Example: Timaru is in a yellow region on the map. This means the current one-in-twenty year drought could occur (on average) between once every 5 years, and once every 10 years, in the 2080s under the 'low-medium' scenario (ie, 2 to 4 times more frequently than at present).

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The figure shows a map of New Zealand indicating the likely changes in the frequency of severe droughts under the 'low-medium' climate change scenario. What is currently a 1-in-20 year drought is expected to become about a 1-in-10 to 1-in-5 year drought by the 2080s in Central Otago, northern and southern Canterbury, Marlborough, and the east cost of the North Island from Wairarapa to northern Hawke's Bay, southern Bay of Plenty and eastern areas of Northland. The west coast of the South Island is expected to show no increase or a decrease in drought risk, and other western parts of the North Island show only a small to moderate increase in drought risk up to about a 1-in-15 year return period.

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