Figure 6.9.4 Change in drought statistics from the present for the Hadley 2080s 75% scenario

Text description of figure

This figure presents the same information as figure 6.9.3, except that the changes are from the present to the Hadley 2080s 75% scenario. The general patterns are the same as described above for the CSIRO scenario, but the changes are larger, particularly in the North Island.

The first map shows the difference in PED level between the current 1-in-20 year event and projected future 1-in-20 year event. Maximum changes again occur in the east of both islands, exceeding 150mm in most of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Bay of Plenty, Coromandel and eastern Northland.

The other three maps show differences in the probability of PED exceeding the specified levels of 200, 400, and 600mm, respectively. For probability of PED exceeding 200mm, the highest probability (0.25 and higher) occurs in the eastern half of the North Island. The probability exceeds 0.15 over 60% of the North Island, but the smallest change in probability is still in the west. The probability change exceeds 0.15 along the east coast of the South Island, with some regions reaching 0.25 and higher.

For probability of PED exceeding 400mm, the region of highest probability change (0.25 and higher) is now more constrained to the east of both islands. There is a significant increase in probability in the east of the South Island compared to the equivalent scenario in the CSIRO model, with the probability change from Marlborough to Oamaru being over 0.25.

For probability of PED exceeding 600mm, the highest probability changes (0.25 and higher) are confined to Gisborne, southern Hawke’s Bay and eastern South Island from Kaikoura to Timaru.