Figure 6.6.1 Global-mean surface temperature changes from a range of models (coloured lines), and the IPCC extreme range (black lines)
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The figure is an x-y graph of changes in global mean surface temperature against time. The temperature range is 0°C-6°C and time is from 1990-2100. The figure consists of 6 curves representing the projected changes in temperature by 6 different models (ccc, csiro, hadley, japan, gfdl, mpi) forced by 1% per year compounding carbon dioxide concentration, plus two additional curves representing the minimum and maximum change as estimated by the IPCC. Also indicated schematically are the IPCC 25-percentile (at about +2.25°C) and 75-percentile (at about +4.1°C) in the mid-2080s. The four model curves that extend beyond 2050 stay within these mid-2080s percentiles. The curves for csiro, hadley and japan follow each other reasonably well, and indicate a change in the global mean surface temperature by 2100 of about +2.9°C. The change by 2100 is +4.5°C in ccc. At 2050, all 6 models have temperature projections scattered around approximately +1.75°C relative to 1990.
